Team: 2019-20 Montreal Canadiens

Initial Creation Date: Jul. 13, 2019

Published: Jul. 13, 2019

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

TL;DR :
1) Perreault (WPG) for 4th + 7th
2) Pominville (UFA) signed 2m / 1 year
3) Reaves (VGK) for 5th pick
4) Gusev (VGK) for 2nd pick + Hudon (signed 4m / 2 years)
5) Puljujärvi (EDM) for 3rd pick + 6th pick + Hudon (signed 2m / 1-2 years)
or just get picks and bad contract of 1 or 2 years (Kulikov (WPG), Backes (BOS) if possible, Smith (NYR),

My first premise is that MTL is not a better team today than it was last year. MTL doesn't have more chance to make the playoffs.

1) Chiarot is not projected to be a big upgrade on Jordie Benn
2) Kinkaid can outperform Niemi, but his numbers last year weren’t great. He still might be an upgrade.
3) Cousins will probably be more reliable than were Deslauriers and Hudon (that will probably leave)
4) Shaw's loss is certainly a big loss and it leaves a hole in the lineup.
Marc Dumont (from The Athletic) adds: “the forward group is still quite young, with an average age of just over 26. That does lend itself to the argument that most of the forwards are in a good position to improve upon their results last season. But seeing as several of the forwards set career highs last season, there’s also a legitimate concern that some are due for regression.” However, MTL had few injuries last year. It’s a factor to consider and that can really affect a team even if MTL doesn’t rely on anyway superstar player to win on their O or D (but they certainly rely on Price).
The WAR projections (Sean Tierney’s lineup creator) put MTL at 92 points next season.

My second premise is that MTL should use his cap space either to take bad contracts + picks, or to take cap casulties (players that lost value due to their contract but are still NHL starters, like Subban).

With Alzner, Weise and Peca in the AHL and Hudon gone, MTL have 7m cap space and a roster of 22. Poehling can be the 23th player, or start in AHL and be called back to replace for injuries due to his two-way contract. The 23th player on the roster could also be someone else: that’s where the fun starts.

Getting a LD (less likely)
With Chiarot’s signing, MTL have 4 LD that are NHLers (maybe a 5th in Ouellet). MTL resigns Reilly and Kulak as RFA: with Chiarot, that’s 3 LD signings this summer. If MTL signs Gardiner as a 4th signing, that would kick out either Reilly or Kulak. But why MTL would have resigned them just before free agency, knowing that they wanted Gardiner? To me, MTL defence is set.
It’s still possible that MTL gets a LD with a trade, but that means one freshly signed LD have to go (Reilly, maybe Kulak). Options can be Ghost, Brodie, Brodin or Leddy. It would have been a more attractive trade for MTL if Shaw was implicated because we had extra wingers: trading picks or prospects won’t be good for the future if it’s to get Brodie, Brodin or Leddy.

Getting a forward
Shaw’s loss left a hole on offense. To me, that’s where the 7m cap space can be used.
my 5 options, in order of preference:

1) Perreault, WPG: just like VGK, WPG will have to clear cap to get their 23 roster. Perreault is also a cap casualty that can cost as low as a 4th + 7th pick. Add this to Armia’s trade and Bergevin will look like a genius: Armia+Mason+Perreault for Mason’s buyout. MTL got Armia+Mason+4th+7th trade for a bust and just have to give back the picks for Perreault.

Let’s remember that Perreault (31) signed in 17-18 4.1m AAV / 4 years (now 4.1m for 2 years). Since then, in 152 games, 32 goals and 69 points with about 13 TOI. We can compare him to Tatar: signed in 17-18 5.3m AAV / 4 years (now 4.8m with retained salary for 2 years). Since then, in 162 games, 45 goals and 92 points with about 16 TOI. In short, Perreault would be a great addition for the cost.

2) Pominville, UFA: Pominville had back-to-back 16 goals seasons. Even if he’s old, he has almost always finished on the positive side of things when it comes to possession and other key metrics. Unlike many veterans, he still earns his ice time, so even if he replaces a guy like Poehling or Cousins, he’ll bring something in 5on5 and maybe on PP. MTL have the cap space to give him what he asks (1-2m? whatever if it’s more) for 1 year).

3) Reaves, VGK: If VGK wants to resign Gusev, it’s Reaves that must leave. Reaves is a cap casulty that will cost less than what he brings to a game : it's not a big upgrade but he still might be needed. It would replace Deslauriers toughness for something like a 5th pick due to his 2.7m salary (remember: we traded Deslauriers for a 4th!).

(less likely)

4) Gusev, VGK: unless VGK gets an offer they can’t refused, VGK will prefer to trade Holden + Reeves to sign him: they have the cap space as long as those two leave. We heard about VGK asking for a 2nd, it might be enough for them if we add Hudon’s right. Anyway, I'd keep Gusev if I were VGK but if they don't, I'll do the trade and sign Gusev 4m / 2 years.

5) Puljujärvi, EDM: he’s a good gamble and MTL might have a spot for him at RW. EDM needs help at wings: they might have the worst wingers of all the teams. It would cost too much to give Byron or freshly signed Armia or Lehko. Maybe just Hudon with a 3rd and a 6th pick can get the deal done, but Hudon might not be the replacement to Puljujärvi EDM is looking for. In short, EDM and MTL needs might not match. I'd give Puljujärvi either 1 or 2 year contract at around 2m to attract him (so a bit higher than his actual value).

(other options : Frolik, Bjugstad, Namesnikov, Gagner)

I prefer those 5 options over all the big trades and RFA offer sheets we can see here because the risk is minimal. It's less flashy, but more probable.