Edited Jul. 19, 2019 at 9:29 a.m.
Quoting: noahginty1
Gudbranson at his cap hit and style will not get us anywhere close to a second rounder. Ottawa is looking to rebuild, not take on big contracts and sacrifice a second round pick for a third pair defenseman. A more realistic deal would look like: Gudbranson + 5th for a 4th from Ottawa. I don't see Gudbranson being moved regardless, but your return for him was too high.
Also no way I can see GMJR moving both Gudbranson & Johnson.
Gusev is also an interesting thought (and a good, fair deal) that you proposed. The only problem I see there is that Galchenyuk, McCann, ZAR, Kahun, Schultz, Murray (and through your scenario here) Forbort are all going to need to get paid next summer. The $4M given to Gusev ties our hand and will make us lose more of those guys than we would like. That $4M alone for Gusev could probably only keep Murray and MAYBE McCann around. Unless Bjugstad gets dumped to give us more space, I can't see Gusev as a realistic possibility either.
Meh, I think Gudbranson fits their style and being from Ottawa would be appealing to get him. I do agree they're trying to rebuild, and as such, you don't want to do TOO well as to get the higher draft picks, but with the recent changes to the top three picks, I think Ottawa would still at least want to be competitive. Currently, their top pair RHD is Zaitsev, of whom, I think could have a resurgence given the chance to produce offensively, but I wouldn't trust him with top-pairing minutes. Their other RHD is Hainsey. They have pleeeenty of cap space, and I do believe they'd be wise to get Gudbranson actually to help them on that side. They also have 3 second round picks, so while you obviously want to stockpile for a rebuild, I think this is possible.
So aside from what pick we could get in return, I do believe Gudbranson to Ottawa could be a real possibility seeing as we only really got him to help with Schultz out. Now that we're entering a full year, I hope Rutherford sees he's not needed even though he didn't necesarilly do bad, $4 mil for a bottom pair on a contending team is not ideal at all. So we ship him out for a pick without needing to waste anything else. Meanwhile, we ship Rust out with Johnson to make that possible with a serviceable return. I also believe this is doable with Johnson having been drafter there, plays more of a Kings style, and can replace Forbort at only slightly higher cap for them while they get a good younger forward in Rust.
So yeah, Gusev, I was down on at first but came around to. That's the rumored deal and it would be amazing to sign him to it. ZAR would be on a two-year deal in my proposed scenario, so he's good for next year. Galchenyuk being pushed down to the third line would in a way help him not get a huge raise even if he clicks here, while he might like it here and find success as to want to re-sign here, he might not put up monster numbers playing alongside Sid or Geno as to command a huge raise, so I think he's safe. Kahun I think could play around the lineup and get chances with Sid or Geno, but he's in a similar situation being an RFA like ZAR and I think he gets slightly over a million next year, not much concern there. Forbort is more of a stop-gap, while Johnson obviously isn't good, I think there's a hole there without him. Forbort isn't amazing but he did play alongside Doughty showing his potential. I think Riikola would be better as our 7th dman, or either way we have at least some depth without our LHDs being only Dumo and Petterson basically. He can walk next year as Joseph and Addison work their way in.
I'd be more worried about McCann, Schultz, and Murray. Murray I think we stick with even if he has another bad year, but I think he would get around like $5.5? That'd be fair, maybe $6. Either way, that's where you spend whatever space you get from the cap raising and Forbort being out *first* along with the slight raises to everyone else. That does leave McCann and Schultz though. McCann I'm more worried about with a full season on Sid's wing he could end up producing a ton and command a huge raise. However, he is an RFA so we have something to work with there. Honestly, I think Schultz should be gone after next year. I'd been playing around with scenarios with possibly trading him proactively as to not lose him for nothing, but if he commands too big of a raise, I think it'd be better to get what you can from him now and let him walk, saying thanks for your service. We could then possibly seek Faulk in FA or someone else, and that's probably the biggest concern in regard to future cap and positional changes, everything else I see being covered.
Edit: Added this to the description as well, but I made a possible future outlook for this roster found at
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1336812 where we can hand out some sizable raises and still be slightly under the cap. I gave everyone a good bump that I think should stay, but I did let Schultz walk and signed Faulk who's younger and from what I've seen, was rumored to make what Schultz is *now* on his next contract, but I gave him slightly more - whether we land him or not is another story, but it shows we can still spend a decent amount on a 2RHD. POJ comes in as the bottom pair LD for cheap. Addison and Blandisi can be scratches with Jarry also re-signed for WBS. I gave Kahun $1.6 mil on a two-year deal similar but greater than ZARs proposed deal here assuming he's slightly more skilled/higher cap next year. McCann, it depends on how well he does obviously, but being an RFA, I think $3.5 would be fair over 4 years. He could very well click with Sid and Guentzel, but I think his success would come from playing with them as opposed to Guentzel proving his worth by himself. Gave Murray $6 mil over five years until he's 30 basically, I think that's enough to bring him back at term. Galchenyuk gets a slight raise as I don't think he's going to do anything to command a HUGE raise and will work well on that third line. Thoughts on this? I think it works dcently well and this current roster is actually pretty forward-looking and doesn't straddle us too bad for next year by not having Johnson, Gudbranson, Rust, and Forbort's cap hits on the books.
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