Edited Jul. 29, 2019 at 12:20 a.m.
Quoting: jshherman
However you want to work it, it he takes 9 for anything longer than 2-3, I would be surprised.
Quoting: Jangle29
I think 9.5 x 6 is more than fair
Jangle is definitely correct in this situation.
Jssherman your statement is incredibly far outside the realm of reality.
Kucherov just signed for $9,500,000 x 8 years (which starts next season just like Marner's will).
Kucherov also signed when everyone thought the salary-cap would be $83,000,000 (so did Matthews).
- Kucherov is 25 years old
- Kucherov is a RW like Marner
- Kucherov is the reigning
Hart Trophy winner (NHL-MVP)
- Kucherov is the reigning
Ted Lindsay winner (NHLPA-MVP)
- Kucherov is the reigning
Art Ross winner (NHL points leader)
2018-19 SEASON:
Nikita Kucherov = 82 games - 41 goals - 87 assists - 128 points - 1.56 points / game
= 128 points / 82 games
Mitchell Marner = 82 games - 26 goals - 68 assists - 094 points - 1.14 points / game
= 094 points / 82 games
2017-18 SEASON:
Nikita Kucherov = 80 games - 39 goals - 61 assists - 100 points - 1.25 points / game
= 103 points / 82 games
Mitchell Marner = 82 games - 22 goals - 47 assists - 069 points - 0.84 points / game
= 069 points / 82 games
2016-17 SEASON:
Nikita Kucherov = 74 games - 40 goals - 45 assists - 85 points - 1.15 points / game
= 094 points per 82 games
Mitchell Marner = 77 games - 19 goals - 42 assists - 61 points - 0.79 points / game
= 064 points per 82 games
TOTAL OF LAST THREE SEASONS:
Nikita Kucherov = 236 games - 120 goals - 193 assists - 313 points - 1.33 points / game
= 110 points per 82 games
Mitchell Marner = 241 games - 067 goals - 157 assists - 224 points - 0.92 points / game
= 075 points per 82 games
Marner's performance has never been close to Kucherov's (Kucherov averages 45% more points + 88% more goals per game).
So to suggest that Marner gets a bridge deal with a $9,000,000+ cap-hit (similar to Kucherov's AAV or higher) is pretty crazy.
Over the last 5 years ... the average long-term deal has had a 60% higher cap-hit than it's corresponding bridge deal.
Example = $8,000,000 x 6-8 years = $5,000,000 x 2-3 years (it's been quite consistent whenever both offers are made public).
With that said ... it's possible that Marner gets a similar or sightly higher AAV than Kucherov (on a long-term deal) because:
- Toronto has higher income tax rates than Tampa
- Toronto has higher internal cap-hits than Tampa
So any comments along those lines would make sense and be up for debate ... However:
Jssherman ... if you'd be surprised by Marner taking less than $9,000,000 on a bridge-deal (or over 2-3 years at $9,000,000):
-
Would you be surprised if Marner takes less than $14,400,000 on a long-term deal?
- Do you think Marner will get at least $4,900,000 more than Kucherov on a long-term deal?
- Do you know of any comparables in salary-cap history that Marner's agent can reference in negotiations?
- Do you think Marner will sit out for a year and lose 5%-10% of his career earnings for a slightly higher AAV?
-
Do you think Brayden Point will get as much as Marner? (has higher points/game + goals/game than Marner)
-
Do you think Miko Rantanen will get as much as Marner? (has higher points/game + goals/game than Marner)