Forums/Armchair-GM

TBL 20-21

Created by: JTBF81
Initial Creation Date: Aug 18, 2019
Published: Aug 21 at 3:34 am
Team: 2020-21 Tampa Bay Lightning
Team Explanation
Although there are several unknowns with this projected roster(Point's contract, salary cap next year, Palat's status etc.), this could be a rough template of how the Lightning could look for 20-21. I have the cap at 84.5 million, with a 3 million jump seeming reasonable. Point should come in between 7-8 million, with a 3 year bridge closer to 7, with 7.5 being the high end. A 5 year deal could be closer to 8, but given the moves so far and the space left, 7-7.5 seems most likely. Killorn is an obvious move after this year, and then there's Palat. If he's willing to waive after a decent season, the Bolts could get a couple picks for him(2nd amd a 4th perhaps). However, if he is unwilling to waive and Brisebois doesn't see him fitting after this year, there is the buyout option. For the sake of this lineup, I.went that route but a trade allows for more money to be doled out to Sergachev, Cernak and others.

This coming season should see Verhaeghe and Volkov likely make the team, with Barre-Boulet, Stephen's and Raddysh also fighting for a spot. Another year of seasoning in the A for them and then 2 more come up next year. Overall, there will be a few changes but Tampa keeps the core pieces together and with their track record lately with prospects moving up to the big club being more hit than miss, I like their chances of success continuing. If Palat waives and is traded, then Paquette could stay at 4C and one of the Syracuse players wouldn't get the call up. I traded him to Detroit here but any team works for a 4th( maybe a 3rd).
Free Agent Signings
CREATEDYEARSCAP HIT
Sergachev, Mikhail3$3,500,000
Schenn, Luke1$700,000
Cirelli, Anthony3$3,000,000
Joseph, Mathieu3$1,750,000
Volkov, Alexander1$875,000
Verhaeghe, Carter1$700,000
Martel, Danick1$700,000
Masin, Dominik1$700,000
Cernak, Erik3$2,500,000
Point, Brayden3$7,250,000
Stephens, Mitchell1$833,000
Trades
TBL
  1. 2021 2nd round pick (DAL)
DAL
  1. Killorn, Alex
TBL
  1. 2021 4th round pick (DET)
DET
  1. Paquette, Cédric
Buyouts
  • Vincent Lecavalier: $0
  • Ondrej Palat: $3,312,500
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
2020
TBL
VAN
TBL
TBL
TBL
DET
TBL
OTT
TBL
2021
TBL
TBL
DAL
TBL
TBL
DET
TBL
TBL
TBL
NSH
2022
TBL
TBL
TBL
TBL
TBL
TBL
TBL
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES BONUSESCAP SPACE
24$84,500,000$84,329,757$0$500,000$170,243
Left WingCenterRight Wing
TBL
Gourde, Yanni
$5,166,666
RW, LW, C
NTC
UFA - 5
Point, Brayden
$7,250,000
TBL
Kucherov, Nikita
$9,500,000
RW
NMC
UFA - 7
Joseph, Mathieu
$1,750,000
TBL
Stamkos, Steven
$8,500,000
C
NMC
UFA - 4
TBL
Johnson, Tyler
$5,000,000
LW, C, RW
NTC
UFA - 4
Volkov, Alexander
$875,000
Cirelli, Anthony
$3,000,000
Verhaeghe, Carter
$700,000
TBL
Barré-Boulet, Alex
$759,258
C
RFA - 1
Stephens, Mitchell
$833,000
TBL
Raddysh, Taylor
$833,333
RW
RFA - 1
Martel, Danick
$700,000
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
TBL
Hedman, Victor
$7,875,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 5
Sergachev, Mikhail
$3,500,000
TBL
Vasilevskiy, Andrei
$9,500,000
G
UFA - 8
TBL
McDonagh, Ryan
$6,750,000
LD
NTC
UFA - 6
Cernak, Erik
$2,500,000
TBL
McElhinney, Curtis
$1,300,000
G
UFA - 1
TBL
Coburn, Braydon
$1,700,000
LD
UFA - 1
TBL
Foote, Cal
$925,000
RD
RFA - 1
Masin, Dominik
$700,000
Schenn, Luke
$700,000
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
TBL
Witkowski, Luke
$700,000
RD
UFA - 1

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Aug 21 at 6:16
#1
BOLT LOVER
Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 1,241
Likes: 216
Point at 7.5M is laughable ... and why does Tampa NOT bring in new trades and UFAs at forward? It baffles me why Tampa fans dont want outside experienced Cup winning blood .. folks if internal driven culture is not changed; forget the Cup .. the interesting part is Tampas D has had "new blood" .. McDonough Cernek Shatterkiek Colburn Sergachev Rutta etc.. but IGNORE the forwards and only use home grown.. only overpay for marginal shrimps that would be worth less on open market ... it really is odd on how D and O have been built .. and in playoffs the home grown forwards just crumble
Aug 21 at 7:46
#2
#DisruptTheNight
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,538
Likes: 2,318
Quoting: BOLTLOVER1
Point at 7.5M is laughable ... and why does Tampa NOT bring in new trades and UFAs at forward? It baffles me why Tampa fans dont want outside experienced Cup winning blood .. folks if internal driven culture is not changed; forget the Cup .. the interesting part is Tampas D has had "new blood" .. McDonough Cernek Shatterkiek Colburn Sergachev Rutta etc.. but IGNORE the forwards and only use home grown.. only overpay for marginal shrimps that would be worth less on open market ... it really is odd on how D and O have been built .. and in playoffs the home grown forwards just crumble


Are you including “Shatterkiek” in that description?
Aug 21 at 8:04
#3
BOLT LOVER
Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 1,241
Likes: 216
No .. Shutterkirk a defensemen .. with trading of Miller (who I liked alot and was underused by mgt. ) and Erne ( who was blah to me) there are NO forwards in top 12 over 6 and over 200 .. nada .. zilch .. that a disgrace .. it sad that Paquette ( who I like alot) ..
the 4th line center has highest # of hits of all forwards by ALOT and only plays 12 minute a game!!!!!!!! .. utter mismanagement of top 12 .. need to have size and grit with the finesse talent .. until that changes regular season champs .. not CUP .. is team goal
Aug 21 at 2:32
#4
Thread Starter
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 22
Likes: 7
Point at 7-7.5 is far from laughable. Gtanted he had an amazing season but he has little leverage in this situation. Based on how Tampa has run the team the past several years, the way they handle rfa's with bridge deals and Point willing to negotiate/wanting to be here, 7-7.5 falls right in line with what he will likely get on a 3 year bridge. I also liked Miller here and would have rather traded Gourde, but that ship has sailed. I would love 1 or 2 power forwards with some size that can play in the top 6, but most would be 1 year rentals as Tampa couldn't afford them long term without some serious losses to players just starting to excel(Cirelli, Joseph etc.). I still hope Tampa goes after someone like Kreider at the tdl for a cup run this year but as for next year, the cap is very tight and big name free agents likely won't sign here because the bolts simply won't have the money. On the plus side, some of these up.and coming prospects do seem like grittier type that can get some greasy goals(Stephens, Raddysh) and have some size with Raddysh. Many things could change by next summer, but with the ntc issue this is one way Tampa could keep things rolling with a fairly strong team next year.
Aug 21 at 6:57
#5
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 377
Likes: 106
Quoting: BOLTLOVER1
Point at 7.5M is laughable ... and why does Tampa NOT bring in new trades and UFAs at forward? It baffles me why Tampa fans dont want outside experienced Cup winning blood .. folks if internal driven culture is not changed; forget the Cup .. the interesting part is Tampas D has had "new blood" .. McDonough Cernek Shatterkiek Colburn Sergachev Rutta etc.. but IGNORE the forwards and only use home grown.. only overpay for marginal shrimps that would be worth less on open market ... it really is odd on how D and O have been built .. and in playoffs the home grown forwards just crumble


Point at $7.25 x 8 would be quite something, but for a three year bridge deal that lets him get his huge contract right afterwards, it’s pretty fair especially since all signs indicate that he likes Tampa.

Do you really think that the experiences of Stamkos, Johnson, Palat, Kucherov, Killorn, Hedman, Coburn, and McDonagh having been two (three for McDonagh) games from winning the Cup and having competed in several deep runs aren’t at least as good as those of a veteran who happened to win just one or two more games as a depth forward? Maroon didn’t win his team a Cup and I can guarantee he doesn’t have the magic formula that made the difference between an SCF loss and an SCF win, and he’s probably the best Cup winner we could possibly afford. Did WSH have any Cup winners when they won? Did STL? Did CHI or LAK at the beginning of their dynasties? I’m pretty sure none of them did. We have more playoff experience than literally anyone else and I highly doubt there’s anything that a depth Cup winner knows that the captain of an SCF loser doesn’t know. We should bring in forwards who help us on the ice, not pretend like a depth veteran can change our culture just because his team won two more games than ours once.

Gourde, Johnson, and Palat would easily get $5.5m on the open market and could probably reach over $6m. Gourde was a tenacious 64pt defensively talented winger when he signed, Johnson was a fast and versatile scorer with incredible playoff performances, and Palat was one of the best defensive forwards in the game. I don’t like the paths they’ve taken since, but you can’t pay someone less than 30 less money because you’re somehow predicting regression. I wish you could, but no GM can.

Most teams fourth line hits more than the other three; that’s their job. I agree that we need to be more physical, but Maroon or Kreider at the deadline for a year (and no more) and Raddysh and N. Foote in the future do that. The best artificial intelligence models with every statistic there is can only predict hockey with 68% accuracy, meaning there’s a lot of luck. Sometimes over a four game sample size, you don’t get lucky and just have to make minor changes. No one player will eliminate that factor or teach us the secret of winning those last couple of games. We don’t have cap space, so this is the team we’re stuck with. It has a better chance of a Cup than thirty other teams according to experts.

This AGM is probably what BriseBois is hoping happens, and while all of these players could demand more, it’s not unreasonable that they don’t. In that case, we would be favorites for at least three more runs.
Aug 21 at 7:36
#6
BOLT LOVER
Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 1,241
Likes: 216
I fell asleep about 30% in .. use less words to make a point assuming there is one in the Walt Whitman ramble above .. I lost all interest when you said Gourde Johnson and Palat would draw over 6M in open market .. dude you not even close .. stop posting and think in silence
Aug 22 at 12:48
#7
Thread Starter
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 22
Likes: 7
Johnson could easily get 5.5, Gourde would still get in the 5 range with Palat being perhaps a little less because of his drop off recently. This year will indicate his viability and value moving forward. I hope he is willing to waive his ntc though, as the draft picks and, in my agm, the ability to keep Paquette 1 more year could be very valuable moving forward.
 
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