Forums/Armchair-GM

Time to Reconnect the Dots Between Buf and Edm

Created by: Payner17
Initial Creation Date: Oct 3, 2019
Published: Oct 3 at 3:38 pm
Team: 2019-20 Buffalo Sabres
Trades
BUF
  1. Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan
  2. Puljujärvi, Jesse [Reserve List]
EDM
  1. Ristolainen, Rasmus
  2. Sheary, Conor
  3. 2021 2nd round pick (BUF)
Buyouts
  • Cody Hodgson: $791,667
  • Christian Ehrhoff: $0
  • Ville Leino: $0
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
2020
BUF
BUF
BUF
BUF
BUF
DAL
2021
BUF
BUF
BUF
BUF
BUF
2022
BUF
BUF
BUF
BUF
BUF
BUF
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES BONUSESCAP SPACE
22$81,500,000$80,082,023$0$4,440,000$1,417,977
Left WingCenterRight Wing
BUF
Olofsson, Victor
$767,500
LW, RW
RFA - 1
BUF
Eichel, Jack
$10,000,000
C
UFA - 7
BUF
Reinhart, Sam
$3,650,000
RW, C
RFA - 1
BUF
Skinner, Jeff
$9,000,000
LW, RW
NMC
UFA - 8
EDM
Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan
$6,000,000
C, LW
UFA - 2
BUF
Johansson, Marcus
$4,500,000
C, LW, RW
NTC
UFA - 2
BUF
Rodrigues, Evan
$2,000,000
C, LW
RFA - 1
BUF
Mittelstadt, Casey
$925,000
C
RFA - 1
BUF
Vesey, Jimmy
$2,275,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
BUF
Girgensons, Zemgus
$1,600,000
C, LW
UFA - 1
BUF
Larsson, Johan
$1,550,000
C, LW
UFA - 1
BUF
Okposo, Kyle
$6,000,000
RW
NTC
UFA - 4
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
BUF
Dahlin, Rasmus
$925,000
LD
RFA - 2
BUF
Miller, Colin
$3,875,000
RD
UFA - 3
BUF
Hutton, Carter
$2,750,000
G
UFA - 2
BUF
McCabe, Jake
$2,850,000
LD
UFA - 2
BUF
Jokiharju, Henri
$925,000
RD
RFA - 2
BUF
Ullmark, Linus
$1,325,000
G
RFA - 1
BUF
Gilmour, John
$700,000
D
UFA - 1
BUF
Borgen, William
$864,166
RD
RFA - 2
BUF
Scandella, Marco
$4,000,000
LD
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
BUF
Sobotka, Vladimír
$3,500,000
LW, C
UFA - 1
BUF
Bogosian, Zach
$5,142,857
RD
UFA - 1
BUF
Hunwick, Matt
$2,250,000
LD
UFA - 1
BUF
Luukkonen, Ukko-Pekka
$778,333
G
RFA - 3
BUF
Montour, Brandon
$3,387,500
RD
RFA - 1

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Nov 4 at 12:01
#26
Joined: Aug 2019
Posts: 305
Likes: 127
Quoting: Copenhagen
Also if he is so good, Buffalo and all the fans on capfriendly are crazy to get rid of him, he was on 90% of trading threads about Buffalo. Keep him and pay him what he is worth as a number 1 D


Idiots that watch stupid analytics pages and not the actual games. If analytics were the be all and end all . We would not have scouts judging players we would just send bean counters.
Nov 4 at 12:08
#27
Joined: May 2019
Posts: 1,494
Likes: 436
Quoting: Swagmaster
Idiots that watch stupid analytics pages and not the actual games. If analytics were the be all and end all . We would not have scouts judging players we would just send bean counters.


Yes or idiot fans judging players like they are professional scouts, like certainly dont want amateur hour judging players! Analytics are terrible and we should not pay attention to them at all, especially in sports where they tell exactly what is going on right! AHAHHAHAHHAAH You must be either a pro scout or an idiot like the rest of us.
Payner17 liked this.
Nov 4 at 9:09
#28
Joined: Aug 2019
Posts: 305
Likes: 127
Quoting: Copenhagen
Yes or idiot fans judging players like they are professional scouts, like certainly dont want amateur hour judging players! Analytics are terrible and we should not pay attention to them at all, especially in sports where they tell exactly what is going on right! AHAHHAHAHHAAH You must be either a pro scout or an idiot like the rest of us.


No not a judgemental idiot like you. Analytics is one of many tools used to judge a player properly. Not the only tool that should be used> As I have said before was not a Risto lover. I could take him or leave him . But to judge him on performance on bad teams with even worse coaching is just plain stupid
Nov 4 at 7:08
#29
Joined: Aug 2019
Posts: 305
Likes: 127
Quoting: The_Ultimate_Pielord
Glad to see there are people on this website ready to fight on my behalf.

I mean, the Sabres coaching in the Risto era hasn't been good, if only because they kept playing Risto all those minutes, and the D corps and bottom-6 have both been equivalent to a dumpster on fire in a flood in a hurricane, so Swag's ain't wrong that Risto didn't have a great situation.

Even accounting for all that, Risto was making a bad situation worse. Maybe he develops better in a different environment,but at 25 that time is more than likely past us.

The big question I have for anyone who cites the eye test is what specifically they see from (insert player here) that leads them to believe that the analytics are wrong and this player provides more than they say. The reason is I feel like a lot of people just go to points, TOI, hits and blocks as value metrics, then tell people (and maybe themselves) that it's the eye test as opposed to just crummier stats. If it is an actual firm and reasoned eye test, that question should be answered.



Floor's open Swagmaster, what specific things does Risto do well by the eye test that the numbers don't show? Sorry if I'm coming off as condescending, I do genuinely want to hear what you have to say here.


Plays a great physical game . His outlet passes are much better this year with far more thought put into them. His defensive zone coverage and coverage in front of the net are greatly improved now that we are rid of Housley and his flawed system. Analytics are a tool and helpful but not the only thing to be considered when judging a player
Nov 4 at 8:05
#30
I put math in hockey
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 580
Likes: 147
Quoting: Swagmaster
Plays a great physical game . His outlet passes are much better this year with far more thought put into them. His defensive zone coverage and coverage in front of the net are greatly improved now that we are rid of Housley and his flawed system. Analytics are a tool and helpful but not the only thing to be considered when judging a player


The outlet pass point is interesting. The public stats for zone exits haven't been tracked for a significant amount of games yet this year, but the immediate Corsi numbers are not impressive. (Corsi does a good job estimating moving the puck up the ice, as teams very scarcely log shot attempts from their own zone.) He's last on the team in relative CF%, which would be an indicator that his transition game still needs a ton of work. He's 2nd to last in relative CF/60 and 7th from the bottom in relative CA/60, so the bulk of that is coming from being a drag on offence. Teammate effects probably play a decent part of that, but there isn't a ton of evidence that his teammates are the issue. Jake McCabe's been his most common partner, and their usages are similar, but McCabe's done better overall by on-ice metrics despite having to split his non-Risto time between Dahlin (good) and Scandella (less good), while Risto's non-McCabe time has been mostly Dahlin.

Looking at data from previous years, Risto's historically not had issues entering the offensive zone (his numbers there have usually been average), but exiting the dzone has been a major issue. If that's better this year then he might be due for a breakthrough, but given that most of his on-ice numbers have gotten worse (though with somewhat tougher usage, optimistically we can call it a wash), there's a lot to be said that he's still similar overall. Maybe more passing success but less success carrying it out of the zone in terms of breakouts (this might also fit with improved defensive numbers).

His net-front coverage does actually show up in some of the stats. His xGA RAPM (accounts for shot quality, which is predominantly driven by location) has historically outperformed his CA. His high danger numbers have usually been in line with the team's despite reasonably tough assignments and this year they have improved a lot. So the net front coverage is definitely there, and it has gotten better this year.

The big issue for Risto on D has been defending the blueline. Historically, he's been easier to get an entry with possession on than 80+% of NHL defensemen, which is really bad. Conceding the zone like that gives the opposing offence tons of chances to set up and start generating chances, and has been demonstrated to be one of the worst things a blueliner can do for their defensive results. Playing well in the dzone is good, but not playing in the dzone is always preferable to playing in the dzone, no matter how well, and Risto struggles to avoid getting pinned in there.

On the face of it, I'd say Risto has improved his already strong coverage in front of the net this year, using his physicality effectively to deny high-danger chances to the opposition. However, he struggles to use that physicality to deny the opposition the ability to enter the zone and struggles to escape the zone once they've set up. This means that what he provides in limiting high-danger chances is washed away in an avalanche of low and medium-danger chances for the opposition, making him a minus player on the aggregate.

He's got real talent in the offensive zone, and especially on the powerplay, where he's a legitimately fantastic player. His defensive game has a lot of flash, with big hits and skill in tight, but his less-noticeable issues in transition are his undoing at 5v5. With sheltering, he could be an excellent PP specialist and bottom-4 piece, especially with a partner who exits the zone well. I don't think top-pair talent is realistic unless he fixes at least one of his exit game or his entry denial. Maybe he's making some strides on the exit side, but it doesn't really look like it's come together yet.

Thanks for the answer!
CD282 liked this.
Nov 5 at 7:26
#31
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,951
Likes: 1,263
Bottom Line: Edmonton has no interest in this offer.
 
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