Spurgeon 😂

defense isnt really the problem. the Leafs are right between Arizona and the Islanders in xGA. both are noted fantastic defensive teams but the leafs are right there. their inability to prevent cross seam passes definitely skews the numbers a bit but the real problem is freddy. Hes been horrible this season

Trades barrie for way more than he is worth the pays for a complete similar type player. . . Wtf

xGA and GA are completely different stats. xGA has a lot more attributes then just cross passes and goalie performance, its also based on time spent in the defensive zone vs offensive. Both of Arizona and NYI are not super strong offensively thus the play will more then often be in their own zone thus raising their expected goals against by quite a bit. On the other hand Toronto is a very skilled team offensively and will usually not be playing in their own end. The fact that Toronto is 3rd last in the league for total goals against is a clear indication of their lacking defensive ability. Sure they are offensively strong but that's the sole factor as to why they are currently in a playoff spot. Also, many times this year Andersen has stood on his head to bail out this team

Spurgeon is a very solid defensive player, him and Barrie are nothing alike

I dont think you are getting what im saying. Most of the public models out here only account for shot location, there are non that I know of that actually are able to account for pre-shot movement, cross seam passes and things like that. as far as i know the private models that most NHL teams have do but we dont have access to them. based off the xGA models out there they have the leafs right between ARI and NYI who are supposed to be fantastic defensive teams when it comes to pure shot location but we know that both those teams are able to defend cross ice passes/back door passes compared to the leafs who cant do that to save their lives. The isles especially have a terrible corsi and a huge gap between their corsi (~45%) and xG (~55%). they just give up tons of low percentage shots that add up to a relatively high xGA but a good xG share. the leafs arent giving up a lot of shots from terribly high danger places compared to the isles and coyotes but those two teams have good goaltending this season. the reason the leafs give up so many goals against is because freddy has had 1 month where hes been over a .905 sv% and the rest hes been below. hes been absolutely awful.

If freddy is playing like he has over the previous 3-4 seasons the leafs are in fine shape and probably an above average team based off of goals against, they already are above average when it comes to xGA. freddy is at an .880 since December 4th. he gave up 5 goals on the first 16 shots last game.

Spurgeon is not a similar player to Barrie lol. Spurgeon can actually play defence

Freddy has struggled and especially recently. But I think he's going to bounce back and be the guy who was carrying this team for the last few seasons.

https://twitter.com/MatthewsTheMag1/status/1230206981551599617?s=20