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Flat Cap No CBO

Created by: CaptainFlynnt
Team: 2020-21 Tampa Bay Lightning
Initial Creation Date: Apr. 23, 2020
Published: Apr. 23, 2020
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Cirelli, Cernak, and Sergachev are the notable RFA's that need to be signed. How do you make it happen?

I'm revisiting this again because I see a lot of posts like "Sergachev wont accept an offer sheet yadda yadda". If TB can't pay him why wouldn't he accept an offersheet.

The only players that are tradeable are Point, Coleman, Paquette, Goodrow, vasilevsky and Mcehlinney. Coleman, Paquette, Goodrow and Mcehlinney's cap hits are insignificant. It is as unrealistic to trade these players as it is to assume TB will find all the other players at $700k cap hit.

So the only realistic options to trade here are Point and Vasilevsky... which I don't see TB trading either of.
Free Agent Signings
CREATEDYEARSCAP HIT
Minimum, League
1$700,000
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1$700,000
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1$700,000
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1$700,000
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1$700,000
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1$700,000
Trades
TBL
    Only guy they can trade who carries a significant cap hit.
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    ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
    19$81,500,000$73,645,833$0$0$7,854,167
    Left WingCentreRight Wing
    Minimum, League
    $700,000$700,000
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    $8,500,000$8,500,000
    LW, C
    NMC
    UFA - 4
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    $9,500,000$9,500,000
    RW
    NMC
    UFA - 7
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    $700,000$700,000
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    $6,750,000$6,750,000
    C, RW
    UFA - 2
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    $5,300,000$5,300,000
    LW, RW
    NTC
    UFA - 2
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    $925,000$925,000
    C, LW
    UFA - 1
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    $1,800,000$1,800,000
    RW, LW
    UFA - 1
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    $5,166,666$5,166,666
    C, LW, RW
    NTC
    UFA - 5
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    $700,000$700,000
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    UFA - 8
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    UFA - 6
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    $700,000$700,000
    Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
    $1,300,000$1,300,000
    G
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
    $1,700,000$1,700,000
    LD
    NTC
    UFA - 1

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    Apr. 23, 2020 at 3:40 p.m.
    #1
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    ok um lots of league mins are any of those cernak, cirelli, and serg
    Apr. 23, 2020 at 3:42 p.m.
    #2
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    Edited Apr. 23, 2020 at 3:48 p.m.
    Quoting: aadoyle
    ok um lots of league mins


    I left them out, I wanted to see the picture without these three signed, I want someone to tell me what the team does about these three.

    I think with $6.2M they could maybe get Cirelli and Cernak signed. But I'm offersheeting Sergachev $6,341,151 × 3 yrs if I'm the habs GM, compensation of a 1st and a 3rd.

    What will TB do about it?

    Edit:
    Theres a certain someone who specifically says Sergachev wont sign an offersheet with MTL because they traded him. I mean, if MTL is gonna pay you and TB isn't... who cares who traded you. MTL would also play you as a number one defenseman, TB already has argueably the best defenseman in the league in hedman so you will never be there number 1 guy.
    Apr. 23, 2020 at 3:49 p.m.
    #3
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    Quoting: CaptainFlynnt
    I left them out, I wanted to see the picture without these three signed, I want someone to tell me what the team does about these three.

    I think with $6.2M they could maybe get Cirelli and Cernak signed. But I'm offersheeting Sergachev $6,341,151 × 3 yrs if I'm the habs GM, compensation of a 1st and a 3rd.

    What will TB do about it?


    my idea for the lightning would be to keep sergechev , trade cernak cause he can come fairly cheap and teams will pay for him (toronto), and trade cirelli as that kid has the makings to become a 2nd line center. Tampa could easily get a 1st + from a team like the wild for him or any teams looking for a quality 2nd line C
    Apr. 23, 2020 at 3:50 p.m.
    #4
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    Quoting: aadoyle
    my idea for the lightning would be to keep sergechev , trade cernak cause he can come fairly cheap and teams will pay for him (toronto), and trade cirelli as that kid has the makings to become a 2nd line center. Tampa could easily get a 1st + from a team like the wild for him


    So you would keep Sergachev and trade the other two? How much do you give Sergachev?
    Apr. 23, 2020 at 3:51 p.m.
    #5
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    Quoting: CaptainFlynnt
    So you would keep Sergachev and trade the other two? How much do you give Sergachev?


    3 year bridge 3.8M deal cause tampa usually can get away with lower contracts as players get most of the money. Once the cap goes up in 3 years he can get 7-9 mill depending on how he does.
    Apr. 23, 2020 at 3:55 p.m.
    #6
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    Quoting: aadoyle
    3 year bridge 3.8M deal cause tampa usually can get away with lower contracts as players get most of the money. Once the cap goes up in 3 years he can get 7-9 mill depending on how he does.


    And do you think Sergachev says yes to that when a team like MTL comes calling and says we will offer you $6.34M × 3 years and you can play on the 1st pair with Weber, 1st PP unit, etc.?
    Apr. 23, 2020 at 4:01 p.m.
    #7
    What in tarnation
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    If I were Brisebois, I'd honestly ask Johnson and Gourde to waive their NTCs and if they didn't, I'd just buy them out.

    Even that'd be a better option than losing the young guys.
    Apr. 23, 2020 at 4:08 p.m.
    #8
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    Quoting: justaBoss
    If I were Brisebois, I'd honestly ask Johnson and Gourde to waive their NTCs and if they didn't, I'd just buy them out.

    Even that'd be a better option than losing the young guys.

    Buying out either of these players and replacing them with a $700k guys saves TB ~$1.5M on cap space this year, however they will have a cap hit penalty on Johnson for the next 8 years and one on Gourde for the next 10 years - is it really worth it?

    Gourde and Johnson don't waive there NTC. They take there buyout (2/3 of what's left of there remaining salary). If they sign for half of what they currently make (which they will they are still good players) then they will make money from the buyout. And they will be UFA's with 100% control of where they want to play vs TB trying to trade them.
    Apr. 23, 2020 at 4:10 p.m.
    #9
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    Quoting: CaptainFlynnt
    Buying out either of these players and replacing them with a $700k guys saves TB ~$1.5M on cap space this year, however they will have a cap hit penalty on Johnson for the next 8 years and one on Gourde for the next 10 years - is it really worth it?

    Gourde and Johnson don't waive there NTC. They take there buyout (2/3 of what's left of there remaining salary). If they sign for half of what they currently make (which they will they are still good players) then they will make money from the buyout. And they will be UFA's with 100% control of where they want to play vs TB trying to trade them.


    Ultimately I'd take that over losing Cirelli and Sergachev.

    Unless it wouldn't help them enough financially. Then I'd look for a draft day deal with one of them.
    Apr. 23, 2020 at 4:14 p.m.
    #10
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    Quoting: justaBoss
    Ultimately I'd take that over losing Cirelli and Sergachev.

    Unless it wouldn't help them enough financially. Then I'd look for a draft day deal with one of them.


    So they would have $7.75M to sign those two players, do you think they can get it done, like $3.75M each?

    Sergachev would make more money signing $6.34M elsewhere.
    Apr. 23, 2020 at 4:16 p.m.
    #11
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    To me the answer is sign Cirelli 3 yrs × $4M and Cernak 2 yrs $1.75M.

    Trade Sergachev before you get ripped off in an offersheet. TB should be trying to trade for a cheap prospect like Bouchard or something. Someone who could play for them and one day replace Sergachev.
    Apr. 23, 2020 at 4:26 p.m.
    #12
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    Quoting: CaptainFlynnt
    So they would have $7.75M to sign those two players, do you think they can get it done, like $3.75M each?

    Sergachev would make more money signing $6.34M elsewhere.


    Well Killorn is almost certainly moving, so you can add to the calculations. With $12M I think those two will be covered.

    But like I said, if that doesn't cover it financially, then I'd do a draft day deal to trade Sergachev somewhere. Via trading they might be getting a better return that via offer sheet.
    Apr. 23, 2020 at 4:56 p.m.
    #13
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    Quoting: justaBoss
    Well Killorn is almost certainly moving, so you can add to the calculations. With $12M I think those two will be covered.

    But like I said, if that doesn't cover it financially, then I'd do a draft day deal to trade Sergachev somewhere. Via trading they might be getting a better return that via offer sheet.


    Killorn is already moved, the calculations are right in front of you it's why I made the team haha I will edit in a Johnson buyout. $7.85M left to go between Cernak Cirelli and Sergachev. So less than $4M each between Cirille and Sergachev.

    I agree TB should trade Sergachev for a better return.
    Apr. 23, 2020 at 5:01 p.m.
    #14
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    Quoting: CaptainFlynnt
    Killorn is already moved, the calculations are right in front of you it's why I made the team haha I will edit in a Johnson buyout. $7.85M left to go between Cernak Cirelli and Sergachev. So less than $4M each between Cirille and Sergachev.

    I agree TB should trade Sergachev for a better return.


    Oh yeah.

    Yeah, I don't think keeping Sergachev is a realistic option. Maybe keep Cirelli with a 4x3 deal, try to convince Cernak to a 1x1 deal and move Sergachev for a cheapest possible RHD, ideally a young NHL level asset under ELC, like Fox or Hronek for example.
    CaptainFlynnt liked this.
    Apr. 23, 2020 at 6:49 p.m.
    #15
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    Quoting: CaptainFlynnt
    I left them out, I wanted to see the picture without these three signed, I want someone to tell me what the team does about these three.

    I think with $6.2M they could maybe get Cirelli and Cernak signed. But I'm offersheeting Sergachev $6,341,151 × 3 yrs if I'm the habs GM, compensation of a 1st and a 3rd.

    What will TB do about it?

    Edit:
    Theres a certain someone who specifically says Sergachev wont sign an offersheet with MTL because they traded him. I mean, if MTL is gonna pay you and TB isn't... who cares who traded you. MTL would also play you as a number one defenseman, TB already has argueably the best defenseman in the league in hedman so you will never be there number 1 guy.


    I think you are referring to me with this and yes I think Sergachev will not sign an offersheet with MTL. Sergachev is getting over 22 minutes a night and replaced Hedman on the top power play before the shutdown so he is getting top line minutes.
    Apr. 23, 2020 at 6:51 p.m.
    #16
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    Quoting: aadoyle
    my idea for the lightning would be to keep sergechev , trade cernak cause he can come fairly cheap and teams will pay for him (toronto), and trade cirelli as that kid has the makings to become a 2nd line center. Tampa could easily get a 1st + from a team like the wild for him or any teams looking for a quality 2nd line C


    Cirelli is already the Lightnings 2C so he has moved past the makings of.
    Apr. 23, 2020 at 9:07 p.m.
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    Quoting: stammerman
    I think you are referring to me with this and yes I think Sergachev will not sign an offersheet with MTL. Sergachev is getting over 22 minutes a night and replaced Hedman on the top power play before the shutdown so he is getting top line minutes.


    No not you, the person I'm referring to isn't a Tampa fan.

    What do you think they sign Sergachev to? Do you think Sergachev would turn down $6.34M for a $4M deal to stay in tampa?
    Apr. 23, 2020 at 11:43 p.m.
    #18
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    Quoting: CaptainFlynnt
    No not you, the person I'm referring to isn't a Tampa fan.

    What do you think they sign Sergachev to? Do you think Sergachev would turn down $6.34M for a $4M deal to stay in tampa?


    McAvoy type contract to be honest. between 4.5 - 5 at 3 yrs. 5.75M in Montreal with quick math is 4.5M in Tampa. Cirelli and Sergachev are core to the Lightning now to go along with the already established core of Stamkos, Point, Kucherov, Hedman, Vasy. I think the Lightning are going to have to convince 1 of 2 of the RFAs to take 2 year deals to lower cap hit.
    Apr. 24, 2020 at 9:37 a.m.
    #19
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    Quoting: stammerman
    McAvoy type contract to be honest. between 4.5 - 5 at 3 yrs. 5.75M in Montreal with quick math is 4.5M in Tampa. Cirelli and Sergachev are core to the Lightning now to go along with the already established core of Stamkos, Point, Kucherov, Hedman, Vasy. I think the Lightning are going to have to convince 1 of 2 of the RFAs to take 2 year deals to lower cap hit.


    And $6.34M is around $4.75M, if TB wants to match MTL's offer $4.75M × 3 years could get it done. Problem is you only have ~$3.75M left to sign Cirelli then. This is assuming TB is ok with buying out Johnson and running a 20 man roster. Otherwise that number changes to $1.5M.
    Apr. 24, 2020 at 9:54 a.m.
    #20
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    Quoting: CaptainFlynnt
    And $6.34M is around $4.75M, if TB wants to match MTL's offer $4.75M × 3 years could get it done. Problem is you only have ~$3.75M left to sign Cirelli then. This is assuming TB is ok with buying out Johnson and running a 20 man roster. Otherwise that number changes to $1.5M.


    If they do a buy out to make it all work they would buy out Palat due to the numbers. He would save them 3.3M this year and only be on the books for 3 more years at 1.45M (Johnson and Gourde contract too long to buy out). Then convince one of Sergachev or Cirelli to take a two year deal to save some money with the caveat that they have more chances at a cup with this team.

    It would stink to lose Palat as he is a good player worth his contract but financials play into and he would be the buyout if there was no CBO financially.

    But lets use Palat and Johnson as an example though, they won't need to be bought out, it would be messy but the Lightning can just put them on waivers and both would be claimed in an instance so I doubt they would risk going to any team that claims them so they would waive their no trade clause to a team they like if it came down to that. That is why is so hard to do these teams with all the hypotheticals that this year brought.

    But it can be done, the Lightning can field a team with Cirelli, Sergachev and Cernak with a flat cap and no CBO. Will the team be as good as it was NO... but it will still be a contending team.
    Apr. 24, 2020 at 10:23 a.m.
    #21
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    Quoting: stammerman
    If they do a buy out to make it all work they would buy out Palat due to the numbers. He would save them 3.3M this year and only be on the books for 3 more years at 1.45M (Johnson and Gourde contract too long to buy out). Then convince one of Sergachev or Cirelli to take a two year deal to save some money with the caveat that they have more chances at a cup with this team.

    It would stink to lose Palat as he is a good player worth his contract but financials play into and he would be the buyout if there was no CBO financially.

    But lets use Palat and Johnson as an example though, they won't need to be bought out, it would be messy but the Lightning can just put them on waivers and both would be claimed in an instance so I doubt they would risk going to any team that claims them so they would waive their no trade clause to a team they like if it came down to that. That is why is so hard to do these teams with all the hypotheticals that this year brought.

    But it can be done, the Lightning can field a team with Cirelli, Sergachev and Cernak with a flat cap and no CBO. Will the team be as good as it was NO... but it will still be a contending team.


    Good point about palat, however as you know palat is more valuable than johnson and gourde so that's a tough one.

    I don't think palat can be put on waivers during the offseason (unless it's for purpose of a buyout, in which case I've never heard of a player being claimed although this would be a pretty unique case). A team would need to have cap space to claim palat, and Sergachev would have to wait until the start of the season to sign a contract after palat is claimed.

    Is Sergachev really worth Palat a 1st and 3rd ? Like just letting Sergachev leave would let you keep Palat, and you would get either offersheet compensation or a trade return.

    I wouldn't be going that far to keep Sergachev.
    Apr. 24, 2020 at 12:40 p.m.
    #22
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    Quoting: CaptainFlynnt
    Good point about palat, however as you know palat is more valuable than johnson and gourde so that's a tough one.

    I don't think palat can be put on waivers during the offseason (unless it's for purpose of a buyout, in which case I've never heard of a player being claimed although this would be a pretty unique case). A team would need to have cap space to claim palat, and Sergachev would have to wait until the start of the season to sign a contract after palat is claimed.

    Is Sergachev really worth Palat a 1st and 3rd ? Like just letting Sergachev leave would let you keep Palat, and you would get either offersheet compensation or a trade return.

    I wouldn't be going that far to keep Sergachev.


    Palat is the best of the three but if the have to do a buyout it would have to be him financially. Yes they can put him on waivers for a buyout and another team can claim him, he probably would be claimed that is why he might choose the route waiving his NTC. It would be messy for sure and not a good precedent but this would be the only case, after next year they would have more flexibility.

    Sergachev is worth keeping, only 21 years old and already playing 22-24 minutes a night before the shutdown. Hedman is approaching 30, Sergachev is his heir apparent. I don't think a lot of fans have seen the growth of his game the past 3 months. The dude legit replaced a healthy Hedman on the top PP. The PP was horrible granted but they put him on PP1 over Hedman to stir it up. He is no longer a lost cause in his own end, he continues to refine his game. I would say his worst attribute now is trying to dangle with the puck on the offensive blue line. All other aspects of his game have picked up that much. Thats the great thing about the Lightning he was sheltered and learned from Hedman and McDonagh and now the Lightning are seeing the benefit of that approach.

    If the Lightning lose an RFA I think it will be Cernak, they are thin on the RD but Sergachev and Cirelli are proven that they are part of the core.

    Please know I am just throwing out examples to counter your examples on all this, its all hypothetical but I am also trying to be realistic to what the Lightning would need to do to keep Cirelli and Sergachev and to me they can make it happen if they choose to do so.

    Maybe JBB gets an offer for one of them he can't refuse, I am not opposed to losing either one if the return is correct but in this league I think you are better developing and keeping your own players, its what the Lightning have been great at and it shows that this method keeps you a consistent contender.
     
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