Joined: Jul. 2019
Posts: 2,574
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Based on the way Tampa has negotiated with their rfa's during the Yzerman/JBB era, likely scenario is a 3 year bridge for Cirelli and Serg, maybe only 2 for Cernak but 3 is also realistic for him as well. Cirelli in the 4 range, Sergachev in the 4.5 area and Cernak closer to 2. They will likely have to trade Killorn and Paquette, either cbo one of Gourde or Johnson, and then either trade/waive/buyout Coburn. Doing this gives them enough to sign the rfa's and still ice a very good 22 player roster next year. Some will say the #'s are too low on the rfa's, but those ppl don't know Tampa. Cirelli is putting up comparable numbers to what TJ/Killorn/Palat did at the same time in their careers, and so many feel Cirelli will bridge around the same cap % they did, around 5%. I've had Cirelli around 4.25x3 but can see him anywhere from 4 to 4.5. Sergachev at 4.5x3 is about right as well, given what his two closest comparables took on bridges(McAvoy at 4.9 and Werenski at 5). In most cases, Tampa rfa's have taken a little less, so 4.5x3 seems reasonable. I could see him getting a little more, like 4.75, but doubt he goes higher that that. Cernak at 2-2.5 million x 2 or 3 years is also pretty expected. I believe JBB is allotting ~11 million for all 3, with perhaps a little buffer up to 12 max.
I see Tampa rolling something like this next season:
Stamkos-Point-Kucherov
Coleman-Cirelli-Palat
Johnson/Gourde-Stephens-Barre-Boulet/Volkov/Joseph
Maroon-Verhaeghe-Goodrow
One of Volkov/Joseph as the 13th
Hedman-Rutta
McD-Cernak/Foote
Sergachev-Foote/Cernak
Schenn/Bogosian/Gaunce/Masin as depth options
Vasi
McE
There are some things that could change of course, if Tampa tries to keep Killorn by using a cbo on one of Johnson/Gourde and then convincing the other to be traded. Does Maroon come back on a short term deal again, do they trade Cernak in an attempt to keep Shattenkirk(seems doubtful given ages but is a possibility)? Still a few questions but given Tampa's history with contracts and the room they have, this is one idea of how the team could look next year.