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TB Next year no change insight request

Created by: Tkachinla
Team: 2020-21 Tampa Bay Lightning
Initial Creation Date: Mar. 28, 2020
Published: May 3, 2020
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
TB GMs:

I'm interested to see what the projected AAV/term looks like in a realistic scenario for Sergachev, Cirelli, and Cernak to understand how far over the cap the team would be before moving any of Johnson, Gourde, Palat, etc.

Seems fair (based on littlejerryseinfeld's post and other TB fan insights) that Cirelli will ask for and get a $4.5-5M AAV to help him set a floor for his qualifying offer on the next deal), and I don't think TB is going to be able to sign Sergachev for less than his actual fair value given the offer sheet option and 30 other teams being very interested in his services.

Could also see Cernak being open to a cheaper team friendly deal to boost his AAV on the next deal while staying with a perennial Cup contender.

Based on my guesses, it looks like TB could be over the cap by $10M+ before moving anybody out.

Is that close?

+ who is the likely CBO candidate? The Gourde contract looks like a whale unless he's playing in the Top 6 with strong linemates and producing 60 points.

TB GM Insight much appreciated.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
5$6,750,000
1$900,000
2$1,750,000
2$4,850,000
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2020
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2021
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2022
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
21$81,500,000$92,100,924$0$500,000-$10,600,924
Left WingCentreRight Wing
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$8,500,000$8,500,000
LW, C
NMC
UFA - 4
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$6,750,000$6,750,000
C, RW
UFA - 2
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$9,500,000$9,500,000
RW
NMC
UFA - 7
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$5,300,000$5,300,000
LW, RW
NTC
UFA - 2
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$4,850,000$4,850,000
C, LW
UFA - 3
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$5,000,000$5,000,000
RW, C, LW
NTC
UFA - 4
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$4,450,000$4,450,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 3
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$925,000$925,000
C, LW
UFA - 1
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$1,800,000$1,800,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
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$900,000$900,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
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$1,650,000$1,650,000
C, LW, RW
UFA - 1
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$5,166,666$5,166,666
C, LW, RW
NTC
UFA - 5
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$759,258$759,258
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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$7,875,000$7,875,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 5
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$6,750,000$6,750,000
LD/RD
UFA - 3
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$9,500,000$9,500,000
G
UFA - 8
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$6,750,000$6,750,000
LD
NTC
UFA - 6
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$1,750,000$1,750,000
RD
UFA - 3
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$1,300,000$1,300,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$500,000$500K)
RD
RFA - 1
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$1,700,000$1,700,000
LD
NTC
UFA - 1

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May 3, 2020 at 3:09 p.m.
#1
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Joined: Jan. 2019
Posts: 419
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Mtl could take Gourde for some picks .
2020 2nd (Stl) + 3rd ?
May 3, 2020 at 3:53 p.m.
#2
Bolts92
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Joined: May 2020
Posts: 42
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To me you use the CBO on Gourde, and deal players like Paquette and Coburn as well as much as fans love the guy you gotta trade Killorn as well just for more relief that way you can bring in either an F/A or have some cap flexibility for a future contract
May 3, 2020 at 4:29 p.m.
#3
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Based on the way Tampa has negotiated with their rfa's during the Yzerman/JBB era, likely scenario is a 3 year bridge for Cirelli and Serg, maybe only 2 for Cernak but 3 is also realistic for him as well. Cirelli in the 4 range, Sergachev in the 4.5 area and Cernak closer to 2. They will likely have to trade Killorn and Paquette, either cbo one of Gourde or Johnson, and then either trade/waive/buyout Coburn. Doing this gives them enough to sign the rfa's and still ice a very good 22 player roster next year. Some will say the #'s are too low on the rfa's, but those ppl don't know Tampa. Cirelli is putting up comparable numbers to what TJ/Killorn/Palat did at the same time in their careers, and so many feel Cirelli will bridge around the same cap % they did, around 5%. I've had Cirelli around 4.25x3 but can see him anywhere from 4 to 4.5. Sergachev at 4.5x3 is about right as well, given what his two closest comparables took on bridges(McAvoy at 4.9 and Werenski at 5). In most cases, Tampa rfa's have taken a little less, so 4.5x3 seems reasonable. I could see him getting a little more, like 4.75, but doubt he goes higher that that. Cernak at 2-2.5 million x 2 or 3 years is also pretty expected. I believe JBB is allotting ~11 million for all 3, with perhaps a little buffer up to 12 max.

I see Tampa rolling something like this next season:
Stamkos-Point-Kucherov
Coleman-Cirelli-Palat
Johnson/Gourde-Stephens-Barre-Boulet/Volkov/Joseph
Maroon-Verhaeghe-Goodrow
One of Volkov/Joseph as the 13th

Hedman-Rutta
McD-Cernak/Foote
Sergachev-Foote/Cernak
Schenn/Bogosian/Gaunce/Masin as depth options

Vasi
McE

There are some things that could change of course, if Tampa tries to keep Killorn by using a cbo on one of Johnson/Gourde and then convincing the other to be traded. Does Maroon come back on a short term deal again, do they trade Cernak in an attempt to keep Shattenkirk(seems doubtful given ages but is a possibility)? Still a few questions but given Tampa's history with contracts and the room they have, this is one idea of how the team could look next year.
Bolts92 liked this.
May 3, 2020 at 4:39 p.m.
#4
Cold spaghetti
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I don’t see a way that Cirelli accepts that deal tbh
Tkachinla liked this.
May 3, 2020 at 6:56 p.m.
#5
Thread Starter
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Joined: Jul. 2016
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Quoting: bunzy1034
I don’t see a way that Cirelli accepts that deal tbh


Yeah I totally agree. I just slammed this together and didn't think on that one. Another post suggested a 2-3 year deal at $4.85M to set a floor for his qualifying offer. I've made that change in the post now.
bunzy1034 liked this.
 
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