Palat trade

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Created by: Richard88

Team: 2020-21 Colorado Avalanche

Initial Creation Date: May 10, 2020

Published: May 10, 2020

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

****** Tampa's Cap Situation ******

Tampa are in a cap squeeze, and will need to move contracts to be cap-compliant. The obvious candidates are the forwards, including Killorn; Johnson; Gourde; and Palat, all over whom have full NTC (except Killorn who has a M-NTC). Tampa may need to try to move as many as 3 of these players in order to resign Cirelli, Sergachev, and Cernak. Johnson and Gourde will likely be the hardest to move given the term that's left on their contracts (4 and 5 years compared to 2 for Palat).

********** Palat's NTC **********

Palat has a full NTC until 2021, but if asked he may be willing to waive specifically to go to a contender like Colorado this summer where he can play out the last 2 years of his contract. The reason he may consider this is that in 2021 his NTC turns into a modified NTC which includes a 20 team 'trade-to' list, which would at that stage put him at risk of being moved somewhere he doesn't like - instead of accepting a trade to Colorado this year and thus virtually being guaranteed to stay somewhere he chooses for at least 2 years. Colorado is also a low-income state so the financial loss for Palat would be minimal compared to being traded elsewhere in 2021.

****** Palat's Fit in Colorado ******

Palat had a down-year in 18/19 due to injury, but has had a strong bounce-back year in 19/20 scoring 41 points (17g + 24a) in 69 games, pacing for 49 points.

Sakic loves players with great analytics (eg. Donskoi, Nichuskin, Burakovsky), and Palat certainly fits the bill. He's a 200ft player who is very effective 5v5, and who has been elite in terms of assists-per-60 throughout his career. His two-way play and passing makes him perfectly suited to being a playmaker on a line with two shooters in Kadri and Burakovsky.

Palat's contract expires in 2022 which aligns well with renewals for Kadri/Kaut/Bowers and of course, Mackinnon/Byram in 2023.

Free Agent Signings

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Burakovsky, André	4	$5,000,000
Graves, Ryan	3	$2,750,000
Nichushkin, Valeri	3	$2,250,000
O'Connor, Logan	1	$925,000

Trades

COL

Palat, Ondrej

Additional Details:

Colorado acquires a playmaker who's 200ft two-way play and elite passing make him perfectly suited to playing on a line with two shooters in Kadri and Burakovsky.

TBL

Jost, Tyson [RFA Rights]
2021 2nd round pick (COL)

Additional Details:

Tampa receives 2nd and a young middle 6 forward to replace Palat at a low cap hit.

Depending on how one rates Jost this might seem like a low return, but factors to consider are that:

- Tampa will be forced to sell at below market value due to their cap squeeze;
- There will be a league-wide flat cap, making it a buyers market for teams with capspace;
- Palat will only waive his NTC to move to a contender, thus making it nearly impossible to move him elsewhere; and
- Johnson and Gourde have full NTC's and will be harder to move due to having more term (4 and 5 years vs 2 for Palat).

COL

2021 2nd round pick (FLA)
2021 3rd round pick (FLA)

FLA

Zadorov, Nikita [RFA Rights]

Additional Details:

Or to FLA / NJ / NYI / DET / MTL / LAK

COL

2021 4th round pick (COL)

OTT

Kamenev, Vladislav [RFA Rights]

Additional Details:

Buy-low 3C prospect

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2020
2021
2022

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
22	$81,500,000	$77,043,095	$0	$5,425,000	$4,456,905

Roster

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Landeskog, Gabriel $5,571,429$5,571,429 LW, C M-NTC UFA - 1	MacKinnon, Nathan $6,300,000$6,300,000 C M-NTC UFA - 3	Rantanen, Mikko $9,250,000$9,250,000 RW, C UFA - 5
Palat, Ondrej $5,300,000$5,300,000 LW, RW NTC UFA - 2	Kadri, Nazem $4,500,000$4,500,000 C M-NTC UFA - 2	Burakovsky, André $5,000,000$5,000,000 RW, LW UFA - 2
Nichushkin, Valeri $2,250,000$2,250,000 RW, LW UFA - 2	Compher, J.T. $3,500,000$3,500,000 C, RW UFA - 3	Donskoi, Joonas $3,900,000$3,900,000 RW UFA - 3
Calvert, Matt $2,850,000$2,850,000 LW, RW UFA - 1	Bellemare, Pierre-Édouard $1,800,000$1,800,000 C, LW UFA - 1	Kaut, Martin $863,333$863,333 ($425,000$425K) RW RFA - 3

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Graves, Ryan $2,750,000$2,750,000 LD UFA - 3	Makar, Cale $880,833$880,833 ($2,500,000$2M) RD UFA - 1	Grubauer, Philipp $3,333,333$3,333,333 G UFA - 1
Girard, Samuel $5,000,000$5,000,000 LD/RD UFA - 7	Johnson, Erik $6,000,000$6,000,000 RD M-NTC, NMC UFA - 3	Francouz, Pavel $2,000,000$2,000,000 G UFA - 2
Byram, Bowen $894,167$894,167 ($2,500,000$2M) LD/RD RFA - 3	Cole, Ian $3,450,000$3,450,000 LD/RD UFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
O'Connor, Logan $925,000$925,000 RW, LW UFA - 2
MacDonald, Jacob $725,000$725,000 LD/RD UFA - 2

Special Teams

Power Play 1
MacKinnon, N.		Landeskog, G.		Rantanen, M.
	Kadri, N.		Makar, C.

Power Play 2
Kaut, M.		Compher, J.		Burakovsky, A.
	Palat, O.		Byram, B.

Penalty Kill 1
	Nichushkin, V.	Compher, J.
	Graves, R.	Johnson, E.

Penalty Kill 2
	Bellemare, P.	Calvert, M.
	Girard, S.	Cole, I.

May 11, 2020 at 12:05 a.m.

TheGuyInTheChair

Joined: Dec. 2017

Posts: 1,271

Likes: 581

I'd rather have Johnson tbh since he can play center too I still remember him going off in the playoffs with Kucherov on that second line

May 11, 2020 at 12:05 a.m.

stammerman

Go Bolts!!!

Joined: Jun. 2015

Posts: 426

Likes: 153

I like your thought process... Palat is the forward the Lightning would most likely not want to give up but if he was willing to move his NTC for Colorado then I assume the Lightning would do it for the cap space. I would hate to see Palat go he is a great 200ft 2-way winger. I might be biased because I think Palat is still under rated and is worth a 1st and Jost even if the Avalanche are the only team bidding on him. That first will be in the upper 20s I am sure.

Richard88 liked this.

May 11, 2020 at 12:06 a.m.

IamDaPlum

Joined: Jun. 2019

Posts: 114

Likes: 25

I like the trade but it all depends on what Jost will sign too before Tampa pull the trigger

May 11, 2020 at 12:09 a.m.

stammerman

Go Bolts!!!

Joined: Jun. 2015

Posts: 426

Likes: 153

Quoting: Jesus

I'd rather have Johnson tbh since he can play center too I still remember him going off in the playoffs with Kucherov on that second line

Johnson is a 2C who has been forced to play less minutes this year around 14 with the ascension of Point and Cirelli. Give him 18 a night and he will get you 50+ points. This year he has been playing more of a defensive 3C role and he probably has the most inconsistent line mates on the Lightning this year. I also think you can get him a little cheaper then Palat since he does have a longer contract.

May 11, 2020 at 12:11 a.m.

stammerman

Go Bolts!!!

Joined: Jun. 2015

Posts: 426

Likes: 153

Quoting: tornadoty11

I like the trade but it all depends on what Jost will sign too before Tampa pull the trigger

It would have to be really cheap and if its not then maybe the Lightning look for a prospect in the Avs system instead.

IamDaPlum liked this.

May 11, 2020 at 12:25 a.m.

Chewk871

Joined: May 2017

Posts: 52

Likes: 7

I like the idea of the Palat trade but not sure you would need to give up Jost. I think the 2nd and a prospect gets it done or close to it. Tampa will need the cap space and there are only so many teams to deal with.

May 11, 2020 at 12:30 a.m.

Richard88

Thread Starter

John 3 16

Joined: Apr. 2020

Posts: 9,584

Likes: 4,618

Edited May 11, 2020 at 1:01 a.m.

Quoting: Jesus

I'd rather have Johnson tbh since he can play center too I still remember him going off in the playoffs with Kucherov on that second line

Johnson has 51 points in 67 career playoff games. Palat has 42 points in 68 career playoff games. Not a huge difference between them, particularly when you consider that Johnson got to play with Kucherov as you said.

Quoting: stammerman

I don't think we need a center as much as we need a playmaking winger, especially since we also have Newhook on the way.

The fact that Johnson has 4 years left also means that his contract goes beyond 2023 when Mackinnon and Byram need to be resigned, and that will probably rule him out as a trade candidate. Sakic has been structuring contracts to expire in 2023 (eg. Compher, Donskoi, Johnson) and with regards to that only Palat (expiring in 2022) and Killorn (2023) would work well timeline wise.

May 11, 2020 at 12:38 a.m.

Richard88

Thread Starter

John 3 16

Joined: Apr. 2020

Posts: 9,584

Likes: 4,618

Quoting: tornadoty11

I like the trade but it all depends on what Jost will sign too before Tampa pull the trigger

Quoting: stammerman

It would have to be really cheap and if its not then maybe the Lightning look for a prospect in the Avs system instead.

Quoting: Chewk871

Jost will probably come in somewhere between Sam Bennett ($2.55/2 years) and Lawson Crouse ($1.533m/3 years), like $2m/2 years for example. Tampa can probably squeeze him down to $1.5-1.8m with some hard negotiating and the fact that there's no income tax in Florida.

That said, it's certainly possible that this trade could get done without Jost (i.e. only a 2nd) since Tampa's trade options will be severely limited. Palat would probably want to go to a contender and also to a low-income tax state, and there's only one such team that can take on his full cap hit without sending much, if any, salary back.

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Forums/Armchair-GM

Palat trade

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