This is bad for Ottawa

Looking at pick charts for DMen it's about fair. 44-50%~ Drysdale becomes elite. 75%+ he becomes about as good as Nylander. Brown=Liljigren. Seems fine.

Their not drafting Drysdale. Their taking Byfield or Stutzel
2 guys who WILL be better than Nylander

No lol. Have you ever looked at a pick chart? As much as we all want to believe every player drafted in the top 10 is instantly elite that's simply not true. About a 75% chance they become as good as Nylander, 50% they become better. I'm going to hold onto Nylander if it comes down to a flip of a coin.

where can i find these pick charts?

I wouldn't do this if I was getting two William Nylanders

Y

Leaf fans on here (most of them) are so ridiculous. Trade everyone all the time, it'll help. Especially if it's an overpay and needless.

This is one based on the pure value: http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/Schuckers_NHL_Draftchart.pdf
This one shows average value: https://bluebulletreport.com/2019/06/05/2018-19-draft-model-update-part-iii-blue-bullet-draft-pick-value-chart/

I can't share my google doc where I did my own but here's a copy and paste from another comment referring to defensemen in case we end up picking Drysdale at 4OA:

"Larsson (T4)
Murray (T4)
Reinhart (B)
Reilly (T4) (E)
Jones (T4) (E)
Hanifin (T4)
Juolevi (B)
Makar (T4) (E) (M)
Heiskanen (T4) (E) (M)

Top 4 D (T4): 7/9= 0.77%
Elite/Top Pairing DMen: 4/9: 0.44%
Marner-level DMen: 2/9: 0.22%

Concluding: Very few Defensive prospects are considered good enough to get drafted top-5. When a D-Man is drafted in the top-5 it is usually for his QB abilities or mature game. Between 5-15 there is a higher likelihood of an Elite DMan, but Drysdale safely falls into the top-5 category."

Assuming Nylander is equivalent to a top-4 RHD then theres a 77% chance we get a fairly equal player and a 44% we get something better. (Data is non-exclusive)

Sorry I can't find mine for forwards but take my word on it it is signifigantly better with a 80-90% depending on the draft they become 2nd line or fringe first line (Nylander is better then that imo) and around a 50% they become an elite player. I reccomend you do your own to see for yourself. It's pretty eye-opening to how often we over high-end draft picks.

I can write out another pick chart in a format I can paste into a comment if you want.

Cool, now do just the top 3, because there is a clear dropoff after the first 3 picks and the rest of the top 10. They may consider the deal if Nylander is swapped out for Marner or the 1st is swapped with Ottawa's 1st in '21.

Leafs have no interest in Ottawa pick they want drysdale which he falls to 3-5 area plus Ottawa also getting Liljegren who is 21 year old right d takin 16 overall who was top 5 before mono

Heres one:

Forwards drafted between 3rd and 6th OA 2010-2016:

Huberdeau (TL) (E)
R. Strome (SL)
Zibenajad (TL) (E)
Galchenyuk (D)
Draisatl (TL) (E)
Bennet (D)
Dal Colle (D)
Virtanen (D)- Will likely be Top-6 in the future but for me is not there quite yet
D. Strome (SL)
Marner (TL) (E)
Zacha (D)
Dubois (TL)
Puljujarvi (D)
Tkachuk (TL) E)

5/14 Players Bottom-6 (D): 0.36%
2/14 Players Second Line (SL): 0.14%
1/14 Top Line Talent (TL): 7%
6/14 Elite Talent (E): 43%

Since I consider Nylander to be a Top Line but not Elite talent, there is about a 50% chance that we get something slightly-significantly better than what we currently have. However, there is also a 50% chance we get something significantly worse. With those odds I will stick with what I’ve got.

Check out my pick chart for 3-6 OA, where Raymond or whichever forward we get is valued. Note that there are great players and busts at every spot.

The thing that would interest the Sens the most is the fact Nylander only gets 6 million per year while carrying the 6.96 caphit.

Because a top 5 pick in this draft projects to be a player as good or better than William Nylander, and at 18 years old, has a significantly longer future ahead of of them.

Giving a top five pick to Toronto is a horrible idea. Those picks are going to build the foundation of the Senators future.

I don’t think so nylander is still young plus u are getting another 1st round pick 21 years old in Liljegren and sens already have foundation in laf? Tkachuk branstrom white Duculair JBD add nylander to that that’s a team gonna make playoffs in a year or 2

But it's an insane price for a rebuilding team to pay, when they could just keep the pick and still be in the playoffs in a couple years.

A deal that makes sense for Ottawa would be something like Tierney, Abramov,Thomson and the NYI 1st and 2020 2nd. Anything beyond that and you're dipping so far into young assets that you're ultimately weakening your rebuild.

Neither team makes this deal tbh. I like the idea though