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Wishful thinking

Created by: ahdede
Team: 2020-21 Vancouver Canucks
Initial Creation Date: May 9, 2020
Published: Jun. 30, 2020
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
RESTRICTIONS
Minimum $1.7m cap space to cover Pettersson and Hughes bonuses
Resign 2 of Markstrom, Tanev, Toffoli
No CBOs / Mutual terminations

Trade for Caleb Jones - While Virtanen has improved over the past 2 years, we should trade him now while his value is increasing for a young dman. Tough to trade him to a division rival, but Jones projects to become a top 4 dman and is dirt cheap for 2 seasons. Provides EDM an opportunity to turn a potential dman exposed in Expansion Draft into a fwd.

Trade for Erik Cernak - Similar structure to the JT Miller trade. TB is in a cap crunch so they most likely do not want players back. Steep but fair price. Opportunity to play with Hughes, potential to be long term D partners.

Trade for Ryan Kesler - Eriksson is owed $5m in cash over 2 years after $3m signing bonus is paid. Kesler is owed $13.35m cash over 2 years. With Kesler injured indefinitely, insurance will cover 80% owed, leaving the team to cover 20%, or $2.67m. VAN retains 50% of Eriksson's contract, leaving each team to pay $2.5m in cash over 2 years. By trading Kesler, ANA saves $170k in cash and gains a player who can suit up and contribute. 4th rd pick added as sweetener for taking on $3m in cap. VAN pays $2.67m to Kesler + $2.5m to Eriksson = $5.17m cash and saves $3m in cap space for 2 years.

$25.8m in cap space for the following season. Pettersson and Hughes will probably be signed to bridge deals because of flat cap.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$800,000
1$750,000
1$800,000
2$2,500,000
1$875,000
2$1,600,000
1$1,000,000
2$2,200,000
1$2,200,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$800,000
1$1,600,000
4$5,600,000
4$5,250,000
1$1,000,000
Trades
1.
VAN
    Conditional pick compensation for resigning Toffoli
    LAK
    1. 2022 4th round pick (VAN)
    2.
    VAN
    1. Jones, Caleb
    2. 2022 2nd round pick (EDM)
    3.
    ANA
    1. Eriksson, Loui ($3,000,000 retained)
    2. 2020 4th round pick (VAN)
    4.
    VAN
    1. Cernak, Erik [RFA Rights]
    TBL
    1. 2021 3rd round pick (VAN)
    2. 2022 1st round pick (VAN)
    Additional Details:
    Lottery protected
    Buyouts
    Retained Salary Transactions
    Recapture Fees
    DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
    2020
    Logo of the VAN
    Logo of the VAN
    Logo of the VAN
    Logo of the ANA
    2021
    Logo of the VAN
    Logo of the VAN
    Logo of the VAN
    Logo of the VAN
    Logo of the VAN
    Logo of the VAN
    2022
    Logo of the EDM
    Logo of the VAN
    Logo of the VAN
    Logo of the VAN
    Logo of the VAN
    Logo of the VAN
    ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
    23$81,500,000$79,843,545$1,700,000$3,700,000$1,656,455
    Left WingCentreRight Wing
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $5,250,000$5,250,000
    C, LW, RW
    UFA - 3
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$2,850,000$3M)
    C, LW
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $5,250,000$5,250,000
    RW, LW
    UFA - 4
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $3,750,000$3,750,000
    LW
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $4,125,000$4,125,000
    C
    UFA - 3
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $5,875,000$5,875,000
    RW
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $3,000,000$3,000,000
    LW
    M-NTC
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $1,600,000$1,600,000
    C, RW
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $1,600,000$1,600,000
    RW, LW
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $1,000,000$1,000,000
    LW, RW
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $3,000,000$3,000,000
    C
    M-NTC
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $875,000$875,000
    RW, C
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $3,500,000$3,500,000
    LW, RW
    NMC
    UFA - 3
    Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $916,667$916,667 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
    LD
    UFA - 1
    $2,200,000$2,200,000
    RD
    UFA - 3
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $5,600,000$5,600,000
    G
    UFA - 6
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $6,000,000$6,000,000
    LD
    NMC
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $6,000,000$6,000,000
    RD
    NTC
    UFA - 4
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $1,050,000$1,050,000
    G
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
    $850,000$850,000
    LD/RD
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $2,200,000$2,200,000
    RD
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $2,000,000$2,000,000
    LD/RD
    M-NTC
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $700,000$700,000
    RD
    UFA - 1
    ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
    Logo of the Anaheim Ducks
    $6,875,000$6,875,000
    C, RW
    NMC
    UFA - 2

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    Jun. 30, 2020 at 9:49 p.m.
    #1
    What in tarnation
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    I just don't see the wisdom of trading an useless player to one who's on LTIR. Where's the incentive for Ducks to even consider it...
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    Jun. 30, 2020 at 9:50 p.m.
    #2
    Best In The World
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    VAN is not moving Virtanen, they have spent to much time developing him and now he is finally a useful player. Not a chance they move him to a division rival.
    Jun. 30, 2020 at 9:57 p.m.
    #3
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    Haha no
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    Jun. 30, 2020 at 10:31 p.m.
    #4
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    Oilers pass
    Jun. 30, 2020 at 11:26 p.m.
    #5
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    Here's the flaw in your thinking: that by acquiring Eriksson, Anaheim "gains a player who can suit up and contribute." (A) No, he can't, and (B) any contribution would come at the expense of another player's time on ice. We'd much rather have Nic Des Lauriers or one of our left-handed youngsters getting on the fourth line.
    Jul. 1, 2020 at 2:45 a.m.
    #6
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    ahdede
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    Quoting: OldNYIfan
    Here's the flaw in your thinking: that by acquiring Eriksson, Anaheim "gains a player who can suit up and contribute." (A) No, he can't, and (B) any contribution would come at the expense of another player's time on ice. We'd much rather have Nic Des Lauriers or one of our left-handed youngsters getting on the fourth line.


    I admit I don't have knowledge on how Anaheim prefers to configure their bottom six, but from looking at the list of players they have now it seems there would be room for a vet like Eriksson that plays on both wings and PK and still have room for Deslauriers and others. My thought on Eriksson contributing was pointing out how Anaheim could use the cash that was going towards Kesler, and instead spend slightly less of it onto Eriksson who is at least a warm body that can be inserted into games.
    Jul. 1, 2020 at 2:52 a.m.
    #7
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    Quoting: Timmah007
    Oilers pass


    Is it because trading Jones is a non starter? Or no interest in Virtanen?
    Jul. 1, 2020 at 3:34 a.m.
    #8
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    Quoting: brocklesnar
    VAN is not moving Virtanen, they have spent to much time developing him and now he is finally a useful player. Not a chance they move him to a division rival.


    Virtanen will probably cost closer to $3m. If we resign Toffoli, can we afford another $3m player in the bottom six? I'd rather spend a fraction of it on Leivo and getting a young dman, whether its Jones or someone else. The defence needs to get younger and cheaper.
    Jul. 1, 2020 at 9:00 a.m.
    #9
    2018 Canucks
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    Retaining 50% the Canucks are paying 1m real money to the Ducks to play Eriksson.
    Jul. 1, 2020 at 9:07 a.m.
    #10
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    Now let's talk about retention. As intimated by @Nighthawk , I don't think that you understand how retention works.

    Retention means a team pays the player an amount in actual cash equal to that cap hit. So that if Vancouver were to retain $3 million on Eriksson, that means that the Canucks pay him $3 million of the $4 million he's owed for each of his last two years, leaving the Ducks to pay the remaining $1 million. And if, as you imply, the deal is made AFTER the Canucks have already paid Eriksson his signing bonus, then the deal becomes even worse for Vancouver. As Nighthawk says, Vancouver would be paying the $3 million bonus plus $6 million in compensation, i.e., $1 million more than Eriksson is owed.
    Jul. 1, 2020 at 9:20 a.m.
    #11
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    Quoting: ahdede
    I admit I don't have knowledge on how Anaheim prefers to configure their bottom six, but from looking at the list of players they have now it seems there would be room for a vet like Eriksson that plays on both wings and PK and still have room for Deslauriers and others. My thought on Eriksson contributing was pointing out how Anaheim could use the cash that was going towards Kesler, and instead spend slightly less of it onto Eriksson who is at least a warm body that can be inserted into games.


    Cash is not a consideration at all for Anaheim, one of the most well-run franchises in the League. Just as an example, due to differences between cap hits and contracts (all downward), our actual payroll next year will be at least $10 million less than our cap total. This why we traded for Backes last year and could well trade for Eriksson this year -- just not on those terms. If we we're to do so, I think that it would be in a structure mimicking the Backes deal -- say, Jacob Larsson for Eriksson, Vancouver's 2021 first and Jett Woo.
    Jul. 1, 2020 at 9:29 a.m.
    #12
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    Quoting: OldNYIfan
    Cash is not a consideration at all for Anaheim, one of the most well-run franchises in the League. Just as an example, due to differences between cap hits and contracts (all downward), our actual payroll next year will be at least $10 million less than our cap total. This why we traded for Backes last year and could well trade for Eriksson this year -- just not on those terms. If we we're to do so, I think that it would be in a structure mimicking the Backes deal -- say, Jacob Larsson for Eriksson, Vancouver's 2021 first and Jett Woo.


    Benning under no pressure to swing that deal. Ride out 2yrs easily better than giving up another 1st & a good RHD prospect.
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    Jul. 1, 2020 at 9:35 a.m.
    #13
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    Quoting: Nighthawk
    Benning under no pressure to swing that deal. Ride out 2yrs easily better than giving up another 1st & a good RHD prospect.


    That may be. My point was that this is the only sort of deal by which Vancouver could trade Eriksson to the Ducks.
    Jul. 1, 2020 at 1:25 p.m.
    #14
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    Quoting: ahdede
    Virtanen will probably cost closer to $3m. If we resign Toffoli, can we afford another $3m player in the bottom six? I'd rather spend a fraction of it on Leivo and getting a young dman, whether its Jones or someone else. The defence needs to get younger and cheaper.


    Virtanen is a cost controlled RFA, who can play anywhere in the lineup he is finally playing up to his potential. If he gets consistent powerplay time and top 6 minutes he can easily put 25 goals. If he really wants to keep playing for his hometown team he will take a discount. Also it is not even guaranteed they sign Toffoli. Leivo might not even be the same player after his brutal knee injury.
    Jul. 3, 2020 at 12:37 a.m.
    #15
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    ahdede
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    Edited Jul. 3, 2020 at 1:04 a.m.
    Quoting: OldNYIfan
    Now let's talk about retention. As intimated by @Nighthawk , I don't think that you understand how retention works.

    Retention means a team pays the player an amount in actual cash equal to that cap hit.


    This is not how retention works. The salary retained is also determined from the percentage used to determine the cap hit retained.

    From Puckpedia https://puckpedia.com/salary-cap/retained-salary
    When teams trade a player, they can retain, or keep, some of the players' salary and cap hit. The team keeps a % of both the cap hit and salary for the remainder of the contract.

    Therefore, if a Player with a Salary of $2.0M and a Cap Hit/AAV of $3.0M is traded with 20% retention, the trading team would continue to pay 20% of the $2.0M Salary and would continue to have a cap hit of 20% of the $3.0M Cap Hit.

    All the numbers used in the Armchair Gm calculator are based on cap hits. For Eriksson, 50% retention of $6M cap hit is $3M. The same 50% applies to the salary remaining, which as of yesterday with Eriksson receiving his $3M signing bonus, has $5M total salary remaining - 50% of it is $2.5M.

    Quoting: OldNYIfan
    As Nighthawk says, Vancouver would be paying the $3 million bonus plus $6 million in compensation, i.e., $1 million more than Eriksson is owed.


    If this were really the case - which it is not, then Eriksson's agent would be demanding a trade out of Vancouver as Eriksson would be eligible to receive more than what he is contractually owed.

    Quoting: OldNYIfan
    Cash is not a consideration at all for Anaheim, one of the most well-run franchises in the League. Just as an example, due to differences between cap hits and contracts (all downward), our actual payroll next year will be at least $10 million less than our cap total. This why we traded for Backes last year and could well trade for Eriksson this year -- just not on those terms. If we we're to do so, I think that it would be in a structure mimicking the Backes deal -- say, Jacob Larsson for Eriksson, Vancouver's 2021 first and Jett Woo.


    The fact that actual payroll is lower than cap total is precisely why I believe cash could be a consideration. It shows that the team places high value on efficiency, and prefers player contracts where salary owed in a given year is less than the cap hit. Also with revenues drying up because of COVID, teams will be looking at different ways to save cash.
    Jul. 3, 2020 at 1:50 a.m.
    #16
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    ahdede
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    Edited Jul. 3, 2020 at 2:14 a.m.
    Quoting: brocklesnar
    Virtanen is a cost controlled RFA, who can play anywhere in the lineup he is finally playing up to his potential. If he gets consistent powerplay time and top 6 minutes he can easily put 25 goals. If he really wants to keep playing for his hometown team he will take a discount. Also it is not even guaranteed they sign Toffoli. Leivo might not even be the same player after his brutal knee injury.


    Virtanen rarely played in a matchup role, where Green usually used Pearson and Horvat - so he doesn't play anywhere in the lineup. Yes he scored at a 2nd line rate playing primary with Gaudette, and provides speed and size, but his defensive game would need to round out for him to be able to get consistent top 6 minutes on this team. If Toffoli were to resign, it would be hard for him to crack the top 6 5v5 and PP with Toffoli and Boeser on RW. Leivo may not be the same player he was pre injury, but I'd rather take a 1 year bet on him vs paying Virtanen $3M hoping that he finds his 2 way game. Virtanen might take a discount, but he is also eligible for arbitration, where he has a decent case to ask for $3M.
    Jul. 3, 2020 at 12:07 p.m.
    #17
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    Quoting: ahdede
    All the numbers used in the Armchair Gm calculator are based on cap hits. For Eriksson, 50% retention of $6M cap hit is $3M. The same 50% applies to the salary remaining, which as of yesterday with Eriksson receiving his $3M signing bonus, has $5M total salary remaining - 50% of it is $2.5M.


    He has $5 million salary remaining SPREAD OVER TWO YEARS. Retention is applied year by year.
    Jul. 3, 2020 at 12:09 p.m.
    #18
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    Quoting: Nighthawk
    Benning under no pressure to swing that deal. Ride out 2yrs easily better than giving up another 1st & a good RHD prospect.


    Eriksson will cost you a 1st to trade right now.

    If you wait until next summer you could probably deal him for a 2nd + b level prospect
    Jul. 3, 2020 at 12:18 p.m.
    #19
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    Quoting: EnvironmentalTwister
    Eriksson will cost you a 1st to trade right now.

    If you wait until next summer you could probably deal him for a 2nd + b level prospect


    I agree but even a 1st might not be enough for some teams. Problem is not many if any buyers are out there for any big dumps. My guess is JB is holding out & not wanting to eat a 1st. He wants to see if LE can reinvent himself which is unlikely. So other options are let it play out & if prospects can push LE out he will sit in the press box or even get demoted. That situation isn’t cap ideal but savings transferred to an ELC is fine. That would mean the line-up got stronger.
    Jul. 3, 2020 at 12:21 p.m.
    #20
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    Quoting: Nighthawk
    I agree but even a 1st might not be enough for some teams. Problem is not many if any buyers are out there for any big dumps. My guess is JB is holding out & not wanting to eat a 1st. He wants to see if LE can reinvent himself which is unlikely. So other options are let it play out & if prospects can push LE out he will sit in the press box or even get demoted. That situation isn’t cap ideal but savings transferred to an ELC is fine. That would mean the line-up got stronger.



    Yup. Of course the other option is he doesn't want to ride the buses and agrees to a mutual termination. But that only happens if he hates the idea of playing in the AHL.
    Jul. 3, 2020 at 12:25 p.m.
    #21
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    Quoting: EnvironmentalTwister
    Yup. Of course the other option is he doesn't want to ride the buses and agrees to a mutual termination. But that only happens if he hates the idea of playing in the AHL.


    One can only hope lol

    All in all LE aside the roster is impressive & prospects are coming. Fun tines are a coming.
    Jul. 3, 2020 at 12:27 p.m.
    #22
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    Quoting: Nighthawk
    One can only hope lol

    All in all LE aside the roster is impressive & prospects are coming. Fun tines are a coming.



    I agree. The pickle will be fitting everyone within the cap while dumping Eriksson/Beagle/Sutter
    Jul. 3, 2020 at 12:33 p.m.
    #23
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    Quoting: EnvironmentalTwister
    I agree. The pickle will be fitting everyone within the cap while dumping Eriksson/Beagle/Sutter


    Lets hope the PO’s help out the situations. I’m bullish they will. With the AHL season up in the air lots of problems are out there for most teams.
    Jul. 3, 2020 at 8:22 p.m.
    #24
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    ahdede
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    Quoting: OldNYIfan
    He has $5 million salary remaining SPREAD OVER TWO YEARS. Retention is applied year by year.


    2020-21 Salary remaining = 1M Retained @ 50% = 500k
    2021-22 Salary remaining = 4M Retained @ 50% = 2M
    Total retained = 500k + 2M = 2.5M
    OldNYIfan liked this.
    Jul. 3, 2020 at 8:33 p.m.
    #25
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    ahdede
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    Quoting: Nighthawk
    I agree but even a 1st might not be enough for some teams. Problem is not many if any buyers are out there for any big dumps. My guess is JB is holding out & not wanting to eat a 1st. He wants to see if LE can reinvent himself which is unlikely. So other options are let it play out & if prospects can push LE out he will sit in the press box or even get demoted. That situation isn’t cap ideal but savings transferred to an ELC is fine. That would mean the line-up got stronger.


    Certainly there wouldn't be any cap savings if LE sits in the press box and an ELC is brought up to replace him. If LE is demoted his cap savings are $1.075M. A min ELC replacement of 700k would only net cap savings of 375k.
     
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