To me it would all come down to who was available at 8 before I would even consider pulling the trigger for the Oilers

Yeah it would 100% be done at the draft

I took Holtz with it. Put him in the A till Chiasson is gone

Why're so many people paying Bear so much? He's had 1 decent season? Generally interested, no hate!

Idk one good season and most threads seems to have larsson expendable and bear as a top pairing guy...

Doesn’t matter who’s available at the draft nuge is far more important to Edmonton....

If he had more seasons like this he'd get a lot more money, theyre getting him long term at a decent cap, a steal if he gets better

Not a chance Edmonton goes for this trade. And nobody is paying Ennis those dollars or that term.

Bear played 1st pairing all season long and did well. If you look at his 5v5 icetime he was 5th in the entire league this year. As a 22-year-old rookie.

That has value.

Id offer him 2-3 to come back to Buffalo. No skin off my back if Edmonton doesnt want this, Its already super iffy. RNH is not highly sought after outside of Edmonton, this is an over pay

Edmonton isn't going to give him up for a pick that won't arrive for several more years and most likely will never be as good as RNH anyhow.

Even at 8 Holtz has been said to be NHL ready. those guys are a year out. RNH is not that special, hes an average 50 point forward

I agree 8 o/a is a bit much for a player with one year term left. If it is a sign and trade then I can be on board. I would propose 8 o/a + Middlestadt for RNH and JP. Each team gets a young player that can play in the NHL this year that will benefit from a fresh start. If it is a sign and trade and Edmonton wants current help the Sabres add Johannson and Edmonton adds 2020 3rd round pick

0 interest in Puljujarvi tbh

I am skeptical of him moving forward, but with the year he had in Finland he is worth kicking the tires on. I view him very similarly to Middlestadt. I think Casey ends up being a winger in the nhl and whether he becomes an impact player or he just flames out is still to be determined.

I dont think Liiga is comparable to the NHL, its like a lower tier AHL, Id put it between the ECHL and the A. So I am always skeptical of Finnish players who do well in Liiga but have either no experience in the NA pro leagues or, like Puljujarvi, have come here and already been underwhelming. I'd rather put Mittelstadt at wing if they end up getting a 2c this offseason and see what he can do. As long as they dont plan on putting him back at C

I doubt Holtz is in the NHL next year, but even if he is it would be idiotic to expect him to play a key role on a winning team. Look at Kakko and Hughes this year - the jump from lesser leagues is a large one.

As for Nugent-Hopkins, he's 47th in scoring among forwards over the past 3 years with 0.85 P/GP. His chemistry with McDavid and Draisaitl makes him super valuable to the Oilers.

Here are his 5v5 P/60 for each of the last 3 years when playing with Connor or Leo:

2017-18: 2.61 P/60
2018-19: 2.06
2019-20: 3.51
Total: 2.76 P/60

That 2.76 puts him 5th in the NHL over these 3 years, just ahead of Panarin (2.75) and Malkin (2.70). Only Kucherov (3.10), McDavid (2.95). Marchand (2.83) and Stamkos (2.80) produced more at 5v5.

Here are his splits between those two centers:

with McDavid: 2.31
with Draisaitl: 3.21

To put these numbers into context, 2.31 puts him 25th in the NHL over the past 3 years and tied with Barkov and Huberdeau, just ahead of Bergeron and Forberg who posted 2.30 P/60. His 3.21 P/60 with Draisaitl is unmatched over the past 3 years, Kucherov is the closest at 3.10 P/60.

It's interesting that Nugent-Hopkins has made Draisaitl better too, which is incredible when you consider most of the rest of the time Draisaitl played with McDavid.

Draisaitl's 5v5 P/60 with McDavid: 3.07 (1857:31 TOI in 3 seasons: 2017-20)
Draisaitl's 5v5 P/60 with Nugent-Hopkins: 3.68 (635:07 in 3 seasons: 2017-20)

Also, Nuge is excellent on the PK and the PP.

- of 86 forwards who played >100 minutes at 4v5 this year, Nugent-Hopkins was 10th best for shots against and 3rd best for goals against.
- of 186 forwards who played >100 minutes at 5v4 this year, Nugent-Hopkins was 22nd in expected goals for and 5th in actual goals.

As for the #8 pick, here is some research I did recently:

Between 2001 and 2015 there were 39 forwards taken with picks 4-7. If we rearrange them by P/GP performance we can see the odds of getting a difference-maker:

Superstar (1.00+ P/GP): 0/39 = 0%
Elite (0.75 - 0.99): 8/39 = 20.5%
Top-6 (0.50 - 0.74): 17/39 = 43.6%
Bottom-6 (< 0.50): 14/39 = 35.9%

I did that research when Buffalo was slotted to get the 7th pick, but since they're now picking 8th lets repeat the procedure but with picks 8-10. Forwards only, from 2001 to 2015 inclusive:

Superstar (1.00+ P/GP): 0/27 = 0%
Elite (0.75 - 0.99): 2/27 = 7.4%
Top-6 (0.50 - 0.74): 11/27 = 40.7%
Bottom-6 (< 0.50): 14/27 = 51.9%

That pick has about a 7% chance of being as good as RNH eventually, and no chance at all of becoming a significantly better player. If you think you can convince a team in Win Mode to trade a top-50 player for a 7% chance of replacing that player sometime in the future, you're sadly mistaken.

For reference Eichel scored just 2.12 P/60 at 5v5 over the past 3 years.

Buffalo accepts. This is Buffalo's ideal move IMO

So McDavid

Puljujarvi scored 0.72 P/GP in the AHL as an 18-year-old.
Mittelstadt scored 0.69 P/GP in the AHL as a 21-year-old.

What?

All of those stats are him with McDavid and Draisaitl, arguably the 2 best forwards in the league over the last 3 years. Before that he wasnt close to those numbers. Whats the variable. McDavid (and Drai)

many players have gotten paid after 1 "good" season

I will agree that Liiga is not on par with the NHL and is likely a step below the AHL but I think it is close just different game style. As far as Casey I view him much in the same was as Reinhart at center they are both very skilled but average skaters and you cannot get away with that at the nhl level.if you are undersized. Now Sam worked really hard to improve his strength and become a very good winger at this level and if Casey puts in the same work he may achieve similar levels of success but I haven't seen it yet. I know his game stepped up offensively in Roch, but he stilled seemed to struggle defensively and he was not a positive possession player there. I am not sure what the organization plans for him it will be interesting.