Quoting: sedin33
We both agree that we wouldn't do this trade. Fair enough.
So this is academic, but your rationale has significant flaws. First, you undervalue Virtanen. He has improved his goal scoring significantly. Why are you so certain it won't improve beyond the 21 goals per season pace he had this year? He's not even 24 years old yet.
Virtanen is 24 in 10 days. Knock it off.
https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/03/23/a-new-look-at-aging-curves-for-nhl-skaters-part-1/#:~:text=Rob%20Vollman%20summarizes%20this%20quite,by%20age%2034%20or%2035.%E2%80%9D
Rob Vollman is considered one of the true experts of statistical hockey analysis, and I refer a lot to his work. The big takeaway in the link I supply is shown in the highlight:
Quoting: Rob Vollman
“Most players hit their peak age by age 24 or 25 then decline gradually until age 30, at which point their performance can begin to tumble more noticeably with the risk of absolute collapse by age 34 or 35.”
While he does state that some players can plateau in the age range of 22-25, what you see is what you get by the time a player reaches 24-25. This represents a statistical average: in order for Virtanen to "beat the odds", his style of play would have to fundamentally change. Either the way he shoots, how frequently he shoots, or where he shoots from has to drastically change. Given that hockey players are notoriously habitual, what seem like simple changes to us as fans is more of a cerebral undertaking than we give it credit for.
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20192020&thruseason=20192020&playerid=8477937&sit=5v5&stype=2
All numbers below are at 5v5.It's worth noting that his goal scoring over the past 3 seasons, at least at even-strength, haven't changed much. The average of 30 goals over the last 3 seasons is very much in-line with what his actual production was.
Delving into Virtanen's numbers suggests that he's averaging 123 shots per season with about 12 minutes of icetime over the last three seasons. The variation in this number is minimal, as is his average number of games played: Virtanen suits up for about 71 games per season (granted, the shortened season this year is a factor in this number). His shooting percentage hovers around 8.11% over this same timespan, but if we opt to discount his lower shooting percentage from the 17/18 season and assume his true shooting percentage is more in line with what we've seen over the last two seasons, his average only slightly improves to 8.75%.
All of this suggests that Virtanen shoots the puck once just shy of every 7 minutes he plays. If his shooting percentage cannot be changed, the only way he can score more is if he opts to shoot the puck more or if he sees more icetime. Icetime does not immediately improve on his results: a jump from 12 minutes per night to 14 would suggest he consistently takes two shots per game. The math results in about 142 shots per season, and with his 8.75s%, would result in 12 or 13 goals per season. One or two more goals. Connor McDavid is not exclusively a play-making centerman and does shoot the puck a fair bit. Virtanen - as McDavid's winger - would not necessarily shoot more than he already does. 12 to 13 goals should still be expected, it's the change in primary and secondary assists that would drive any substantial increase in points for Virtanen.
I am ignoring powerplay production for the time being: I don't think Virtanen would get much - if any - in Edmonton, as the #2 unit never sees action as it is, and I suspect that Hoglander and Lind will consume any prospects Virtanen will get on the man advantage in the future for the Canucks.
I genuinely don't believe any of the above is undervaluing Virtanen: he was on pace for 13 even-strength goals and 17 even-strength assists. That's good third-line production, and his powerplay utility this season is apt to net him more money than the average quality third liner.