Wow. Great analysis!

So that's why earlier this summer, when someone suggested just a 1st for Ekholm, NSH fans didn't bat an eyelash. Because that adds a safe asset and opens up a protection slot. I don't really understand this at all, but if the Caps don't have cap space for Dillon, is there a way to combine an Ekholm trade with a Kempny for Jarnkrok deal, that helps them have some flexibility against expansion? Or does WSH still end up overcrowded on LHD?

eta: and if they're unable to reach an agreement with Dillon, would adding his UFA rights have some value in such a big mutual defensive overhaul?

Yeah, trading for Ekholm and Jarnkrok together is definitely something that's crossed my mind, although I'm sure it'd be expensive. Ekholm seems like a taller version of pre-injury Kempny on a pretty fair contract, so he'd be a great partner for Carlson. I dunno if Kempny, a 1st, and a prospect like Leason would do it, but that's a price I'd definitely be willing to pay. The Lavi connection makes it extra appealing.

As for Dillon's UFA rights, they're probably worth a 5th. That's what Edmundson's rights got, and I think Dillon's better, but we're closer to the start of free agency now so a team acquiring him would have less time to negotiate. I feel like Nashville wouldn't be all that interested in his rights, since trading Ekholm and signing Dillon just puts them right back into the same ED jam.

So, I just saw your comment on my post so I decided to check out your proposed trade here. If we take out Eller and Zacha from this trade and add something else instead, I like the move. Eller is a very good 3C for us, arguably the best we've had in the Ovechkin era. I don't want to get rid of him especially on that contract. I'd be okay with parting ways with a package like:

Kempny
Protas
Gersich
2021 2nd round pick

I'm also okay with the Siegenthaler for Jarnkrok trade but I also think that the caps would have to add something small to sweeten it, like a mid round pick. I'm okay with a third line of Jarnkrok - Eller - McMichael.

I might toy around with this trade in a post of my own at some point later. I like the ideas a lot!

Thanks so much! I like your Subban trade, too. Might even get more retention, offering picks and prospects for their old guy, to help them rebuild through the draft.

We've seen Eller is fine at 2C as an injury replacement. I wouldn't see Zacha being ready for that yet, but in a few years he might be, and by then McLeod will still be ahead of him on NJ's depth chart, so his trade value might come down, eventually.

I posted the same Subban offer on the Devils' side. No Devils fans said anything, so I think that's a nope. Yours has more potential. Another Devils thread today offered Mirco Mueller for a 4th, though. Could be a good partner for Siegenthaler on a 3rd pair, just based on how good they are in a shutdown role, but better if they both speak the same kind of "Swiss."

On p.1 of this thread VilleNash says Nashville might also be more focused on searching for picks and prospects. Isn't everybody.

I reworked a few things in the team I just posted but I think my post might need even more refining lol. I agree on the Zacha v. Eller debate, Eller can handle a lot more if needed but I really wouldn't feel comfortable with Zacha at 2C in case of injury. If the devils were willing to take on more salary, there's a lot more freedom for what the caps can do. The extra 1.5M would make a big difference in the way the forward depth looks. I have a link to my post here.

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1970100

NSH would probably be interested in Vrana in an Ekholm deal -- assuming he could be made available since they won't have much cap space to sign him and Samsonov to contract extensions. Kempny + 1st + Leason doesn't get it done. Ekholm will have increased value with his contract and the flat cap as well. So he should be able to get a very solid return for NSH if they end up trading him.

You're both right in different ways.

NSH would want more value back from just Kempny, but a deal may be able to work there. And NSH will have to go 4-4 in the expansion draft unless they trade Ekholm, so we'll see what happens. I don't think they would protect Kempny in the draft either way though.

You're definitely right about the flat cap upping Ekholm's value. That's a fair ask, but I don't think the Caps would move Vrana with Ekholm as the main piece coming back. I feel like this would need to be a 3-way trade for it to work - Caps 1st to the 3rd team, young winger from the 3rd team to the Preds, Ekholm to the Caps. Maybe Rakell from the Ducks? He's got almost exactly the same contract remaining as Ekholm.