A smaller trade may occur if Gorts decides not to move step bc it looks bad if Step is moved before the NTC kicks in, something like Miller being traded elsewhere.

Not necessarily, Subban was traded right before his kicked in last summer and Nashville probably won long-term (Weber's production is going to drop off eventually).

Personally, I think Stepan is the next Callahan - Rangers signed him to a big deal and gave him first line C duties because there were no better options. The Rangers knew Callahan would wear down soon and traded him while they could, and now he is the biggest blemish on that talented Tampa roster.

St. Louis needs offense, and if they're not in the playoff hunt by the deadline, they will definitely trade Shattenkirk. In their minds, they get a first line C for the next five years in exchange for Shattenkirk (who they know the Rangers would sign immediately). So it's essentially a straight-up deal of long-term 1C for long-term top-4 D. Rangers come out on top but the Blues get what they need in a 1C.

As a Rangers fan, I like these moves pending what happens with Shattenkirk's contractual situation. NYR has plenty of young blood up the middle, and Rob is 100% correct about Stepan being "the next Callahan."

Also, this is a solid move with respect to the cap because Stepan is overpaid and Gorton needs to scrounge for extra cash to re-sign Zibanejad. The big question is what can be done about Girardi/Staal. Maybe if the Avs tear things down completely they'd consider swallowing one of those contracts for an extra prospect or pick.

EDIT:
One problem, though: what happens to Rangers' D in the expansion draft? Girardi and Staal have NMC's and you can't leave Shatty or McDonagh unprotected.

Have to think Girardi will be bought out, or asked to waive his NMC if a protectable defenseman is acquired. If you knew Shat would resign, I would say leave him as a UFA so you don't have to protect him also.

I don't like this trade straight up. Think something like Stepan/Klein for Shat, Berglund, and another minor piece would get it done. Still need to replace that Center for this year, so Rangers can compete for playoffs, and can address another C to go with Hayes/Zib in off-season when Berglund and Shat expire. Trading Stepan in this deal would also allow Grabner to be protected.

I understand Hanzal, but would rather keep the 2nd rounder.