I put math in hockey
Joined: Jun. 2018
Posts: 624
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Definite points for boldness, I love ACGMs with no cap space whatsoever.
Trade 1: Points for a reasonable-ish Eichel trade. I dunno if it'd be the best offer available, and it certainly isn't fair value for the Sabres, but I could definitely see them taking it if nobody else wants to swap out a young star.
Trade 2: It hurts to say with how much I like Giordano, but I dunno if you can move him without paying the other team. He's been pretty much a league-average blueliner for the past two seasons making nearly 7 million for next year. Maybe you can cash in on rep, but still.
Trade 3: You can probably get a bit more for Monahan, yes he's a touch overpayed, but Evolving-hockey projects his market value as comparable to Alex Killorn or Cam Atkinson before factoring in his contract. I'd be real surprised if you couldn't get multiple picks back for him.
The lineup construction is really iffy. Do NOT put Hamilton on his weak side, doing that really hurts blueliners in transition, which is Dougie's main selling point. Whatever you do with him, keep him on the right side.
That second line is WEAK. Lindholm's a decent second-line center on the back of his shot, but Dube's an unimpressive third-liner and Pelletier is almost certainly not ready for a major role. Patrick Bacon's NHLe model estimates a point in the QMJHL as equivalent to approx. 1/9th of an NHL point, putting his pace last year in the Q as equivalent to a 12 or 13 point NHL season. Yes he's due for some improvement there, and maybe his forechecking can be a sizable value add, but betting on him as a 2nd liner is a real stretch to me. The third line is a lot stronger at every position, you'd probably want to switch them.
Anddersson probably shouldn't be on the top pair, given that Hockeyviz estimates him to provide 7% less offense and 6% less defense than an average blueliner, and Evolving-hockey had him as a sub-replacement level player last year. A return to the second pair might get him back to where he was in prior years, as yet another Chris Tanev.
The top-6 is strong if we swap the second and third lines, and Hamilton can carry the top pair while the rest of the D corps treads water. This teams pretty Bruins-like in a lot of ways, and they're probably still a tick behind Colorado or Vegas in the west, but they can definitely win a cup if Markstrom gets hot at the right time.
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Pelletier,
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