Dubas gets more flak than he deserves for a lot of stuff that's (mostly) out of his hands, but protecting Holl in a 4-4-1 over McCann & Kerfoot felt like a decent mis-step, especially given Holl's pedestrian numbers away from Muzzin & our lack of secondary/depth scoring last year. so, in a world with 20/20 hindsight, we do that instead. *All other trades would be post-expansion draft.*
-McCann for Holl. Went over this in P1.
- Kerfoot for a pick. Every dollar counts, and I believe we could get better value in FA. Price doesn't matter as much as clearing his full cap, but he's definitely worth a mid-round pick at a minimum.
- We just saw what Risto went for, so Rielly could easily command the same. Dulled the price a bit (taking Ferland's LTIR) because he's got one year left. Either use the first (Wahlstedt? Johnson? Sillinger? yes to all) or trade down and recoup assets, which can either buoy our prospect pool or be used in future trades. Picks would be for this year, but that isn't available for some reason.
- Carolina is looking for a second for Bean, so flip our second (again, from this year) and Dermott (cheap replacement for Bean's spot) for him and Foegele, another player Carolina is shopping. Both good fits in our system (Bean & Sandin fight for PP QB spots, Foegele could be a poor man's Hyman on a much affordable beat). Add a minor league goalie if need be, given Marlies logjam and Canes' lack thereof.
-Engvall for Hunt. Cheaper, more physical, but can still play. This deal isn't as necessary, and Engvall is still an excellent PK/4th liner, but Hunt brings a different edge and would likely cost less too.
- Sign Coleman and Granlund. I think these should be priority targets one and two - Coleman is the well-rounded first line presence we lost in Hyman, while Granlund is a true Swiss Army knife player - any position, any special teams. Unlike Kerfoot though, he has a stronger track record of offensive production.
- Sign McCabe, Haakanpaa, and Brossoit. McCabe is pretty underrated imo, and could easily do the same thing Holl has done at a slightly higher price. I respect the fact that Dubas thinks that top four defenders aren't available at 2M, but there are always bargains to be found (Demelo at 3M comes to mind) and if you have to pay a bit more, then it's doable because of ELCs/bridge deals for Sandin, Bean, and Liljgren. Haakanpaa fills the Bogo role, and has some familiarity with Bean from Carolina. Rotate Lilj in for regular minutes, and use Muzz-Brodie as our matchup/shutdown pairing. Brossoit was excellent when called upon, and likely wouldn't demand much as well, but there's a dozen veterans on the G market so anyone at a similar price would do too.
Result: leveraged our biggest trade chip to replenish prospect/asset pool, focused on F depth without crippling defensive depth, and trust that youth (Sandin, Bean, and Lilj) can take that next step. McCann, Campbell, and Sandin would be the only one's needing new deals next year, and droppping Mikh opens some room, but there's little room for error. Just a fun concept of what could've been, or what still could be (assuming McCabe's 3M goes to a forward instead).
I like a lot of your analysis. The fact that Risto went for so much, to me, means a couple of things, Reilly's value not one of those:
1. RHD are gold
2. GM's perceptions of players =/= ACGM's perception of players
The conclusion for me is instead that Reilly is not worth what he probably should be. Anyway, VAN has Rathbone and Hughes on the left side already. If we want Reilly, we will wait until Tessa Virtue begs him to come play at home in Vancouver next year at no trade value
I like a lot of your analysis. The fact that Risto went for so much, to me, means a couple of things, Reilly's value not one of those:
1. RHD are gold
2. GM's perceptions of players =/= ACGM's perception of players
The conclusion for me is instead that Reilly is not worth what he probably should be. Anyway, VAN has Rathbone and Hughes on the left side already. If we want Reilly, we will wait until Tessa Virtue begs him to come play at home in Vancouver next year at no trade value
very fair, but even if you remove the second, and it's just the 9th + Ferland's cap, that feels like a pretty decent trade from Vancouver's perspective - heck, the second could be conditional on a re-sign. The point is the Leafs get a first under a GM who is known for trading down and maximizing value. Plus, Benning ain't exactly the sharpest knife in the drawer when it comes to deal like that, and the PR from bringing in a 'local boy' would have to be appealing on top of his obvious talent. I will say that the deal likely wouldn't happen if they can't move Schmidt's deal - so maybe LA? one pick higher, and a clear need for a top LHD who is still relatively young. Definitely think Leafs can get some serious value regardless, there's always one team who will overpay.
very fair, but even if you remove the second, and it's just the 9th + Ferland's cap, that feels like a pretty decent trade from Vancouver's perspective - heck, the second could be conditional on a re-sign. The point is the Leafs get a first under a GM who is known for trading down and maximizing value. Plus, Benning ain't exactly the sharpest knife in the drawer when it comes to deal like that, and the PR from bringing in a 'local boy' would have to be appealing on top of his obvious talent. I will say that the deal likely wouldn't happen if they can't move Schmidt's deal - so maybe LA? one pick higher, and a clear need for a top LHD who is still relatively young. Definitely think Leafs can get some serious value regardless, there's always one team who will overpay.
Since the Sedins have come in, I think they've tied Benning up to a chair. Don't think Dubas is looking to move Reilly. Your back end was really solid last year. He certainly wouldn't have done the 4-4-1 if he had moving a d-man in mind, I think
Since the Sedins have come in, I think they've tied Benning up to a chair. Don't think Dubas is looking to move Reilly. Your back end was really solid last year. He certainly wouldn't have done the 4-4-1 if he had moving a d-man in mind, I think
So uh, about that "Benning won't do anything" idea...
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