Quoting: OldNYIfan
Some thoughts in reply to your informed and courteous response:
Gustavsson, Sogaard and Merilainen are all excellent prospects, but none has the track record of Gibson. None came with the expectations of Demko or Knight, for example. Of course, I hope that at least one of them turns into an NHL starter for years.
I'm confused by your characterization of the Kuemper trade as "contextual," as if that supports a conclusion that he was overvalued. Colorado is a team that expects, and is expected, to be a serious Cup contender, both this season and in the next few seasons, at least. I think that any team that lacked a starter and hoped for playoff success would pay a reasonable and proper price for one. Ottawa has pretensions to being a serious contender in 2023-2024 and for several years thereafter; I wouldn't think that they would expect to get a long-term starter of high quality for less. It's not as if they're trading for Semyon Varlamov (who I consider, right now, to be at least as valuable as Gibby).
You're absolutely right that Ottawa's 2022 first >> Colorado's 2022 first. The reason I mentioned Brannstrom is that he's in this trade, and I've seen a lot of Ottawa ACGMs that imply that he's been passed up on the depth chart by other good D prospects in your system. But I don't think it's accurate to evaluate either him or Thomson as superior to Timmons.
I admit that this is a very high return for Gibson, but I put a LOT of stock on his age (he'll be only 34 when his contract expires, so I don't expect that much of a drop-off at the end of it), the term, and the fact that he was really very, very good when he had a high-quality defense in front of him. And as we have already seen in the games when the Ducks have played well in front of him this year, he's stil in the top quarter of goaltenders in the League.
Of course none of them has Gibson's track record, they're pretty young. Gustavsson is the most proven of the 3 and has already looked pretty good in the NHL. Murray is also pretty underrated (now) and just 27 y/o... Look at post #16 in this thread. The Sens need to acquire a good D-man, not a goalie and in this proposal, Sens are giving 2 of their best D prospects.
When I speak about "contextual", I mean the Avs had just lost Grubauer and needed to go out and acquire a good goalie. Timing wasn't the best with Seattle hoarding good goalies available. They were a bit in a bad spot in relation to supply vs demand and they overpaid to get Kuemper. If you'd poll hockey fans, I think that would be a concensus opinion. That being said, a late first and Timmins is nowhere NEAR what Brannstrom + Ott's first would be. Adding Batherson to that already overpyament makes it RIDICULOUS (sorry, don't mean to not be courteous anymore)
Brannstrom is not in ACGMs because he's been passed up on the depth chart. There would be a lot of explaining to do so instead of making a long text here, I'll give a link where I already gave some insight about this.
https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/522714?post_id=2749312
I coud also give links about how Brannstrom has always been ranked over Timmins by pretty much every source but that'd be a lot more work. I can link this one. Brannstrom still ranked 19th on that list. Timmins obviously not there
https://www.tsn.ca/detroit-red-wings-blue-chippers-montreal-canadiens-cole-caufield-headline-top-75-prospects-list-1.1617205
Finally, I wouldn't trade Murray + Batherson alone vs Gibson... Maybe you're not familiar with Batherson, I suggest you watch him, he's 30 G 65 P guy on a sweetheart deal. I really doubt the Sens trade him. If they don, it won't be for a goalie who in general have much lesser value than skaters
When you say Gibson "was really very, very good when he had a high-quality defense in front of him", it makes me think of Murray who had pretty good seasons (and won 2 cups) in Pittsburgh, even if the defense was never really that great. He's a goalie who just needs a solid structure in front of him, The Sens were the exactly opposite of that when he played last season, except when he came back from injury and the team was much better defensively, which is when he had 0.954 SV% in the 5 games he played.
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