To trade the Lucic contract it will have to be similar to the Patrick Marleau trade. which was essentially a 1st round pick.

Could very well be, just since Arizona is taking many bad contracts for seconds and thirds, unlike carolina in 2019 getting marleau, so the price might not be as high. I dont see us trading our first for 2023 though so maybe adding on more middle round picks?

I think you're close here, I don't see Lucic waiving and Kylington should get 1 year 2 - 3M. That's also a big Mangiapane contract for only 4 years but if he keeps going who knows!

Carolina was taking on a contract that they knew they would be paying for two years with the buyout, they also knew that Marleau wasn't going to play so it was a straight up favour to the Leafs to get a 1st round pick. Lucic after his bonus has $1M salary owed but gets Arizona tot he cap floor, there is no reason to buy him out, he is nearly 20 points in almost 50 games and has been a really big reason as to why Ruzicka has been good on the 4th line at C. I doubt he waives but it won't cost as much as Marleau if he does.

I also think the mangiapane contract is a little high, but from the reports I was reading this was around the average. Kylington is having a solid year, and if he wants to stay for a medium length term I think this is reasonable. I don't see Lucic waving either, and he is having a solid year just in terms of cap space issues getting rid of him would be beneficial.

The problem you run into with Kylington is that he has been in the organization for so long that next year is his last RFA eligible contract, a 3 year deal only buys one season of UFA, if you sign 1 year at a lower number if is an opportunity for both Kylington and the Flames to get a better gauge on the situation before signing to term. It also means that regardless, Monahan and Lucic are off the books and there is more flexibility for a bigger cap hit if her earns it.

Yeah thats a fair take, im hoping he'll continue to improve and the 3.1 mill price tag will look like a steal, but long term your idea makes more sense.