Both teams probably decline

Lol kinda what I thought would be the case (hence the name), but I love this for the Ducks. I think another RD and LW prospect are two of the biggest opportunity areas in the pipeline, and I'm a fan of both Rob and Lilj

Leafs take that and run

Gibson makes the trade tilt towards the leafs

That is very very very bad value for the Ducks. You could get that whole package just for lindholm in my opinion. Mrazek and Holl have none if not negative value.

Agreed on Mrazek and Holl. They're included to make salary work for Toronto. Read the description and I talk through the value. I agree value is slanted for Toronto. It's intentional to account for the fact that they're getting 2 rentals and only 1 long-term contract, while the Ducks are getting 2 high end prospects who will likely both be full-time NHLers next season for us (and this year considering our roster) and a 1st in a very good draft

I am not so sure they run with it but this is something to think hard about. They are giving up a tonne of futures for a goalie and 2 guys that will be gone after this season. It also would mean they need to add another depth defenceman since it saps their depth by one NHL defenceman. If it was Kerfoot going over instead of Holl I think it's a done deal.

That whole package for Lindholm.....that's a awful analysis

Lol that's hilarious. Please post that so you can get some feedback.

That's actually a great callout. I'd happily make it Kerfoot instead of Holl. Probably better for both teams even. I'll make the edit

If both teams decline the value cant be that far off. Would rather remove Lindholm and Lily. Lindholm would be nice for this run but we can't afford him after this season and Lily fits the long term need.
Gio would be a better fit as he was played/paired with Brodie in the past and hope we could get him as the Spezza of our Dcore moving forward.
If this trade happened I would love it for about 3 months and start to hate it once the season ended without a cup.

Lindhom and rakell will each return a 1st on their own, if not more for being retained.

Not sure if Gibsons value, but it's not this pile of stuff

I completely agree with this POV. It's exactly why I felt like a little extra value slanted Toronto's way is necessary to get them to shake hands on it. It's an immediate value win for TOR, but it's such an abundance of high end prospect talent in positions of need for Anaheim that it feels worthwhile to me (and seemingly only me 😂)

Rakell is worth a first imo, but getting someone to pay that may be tough. He has almost identical stats to Jarnkrok, who got less and consensus is they overspent on him in a bidding war. Value doesn't matter if there isn't someone willing to pay it. If we don't get something for him, he walks for nothing.

Lindholm is totally worth a 1st + on his own. Chiarot got a 1st and then a bunch of meh. Lindholm is worth a 1st and good prospect. IMO Robertson is much better than just a "good" prospect, so in an effort to be conservative I'm saying a 1st and Robertson is slightly more than he's worth.

I also agree Gibson is worth more than this. It's about giving something long-term in the deal, and slanting value toward TOR since almost everything they're getting is on an expiring contract, and everything they're giving is a long term piece. I agree this is where Toronto could "win" the deal, but to me that's necessary for them to even consider moving this much in young assets. And at the same time, when the Ducks are ready to seriously compete Gibson will be past his prime, on a contract that isn't cheap, and there's a strong alternative in the pipeline in Dostal so I'd be happy with moving him generally if the return is worth it

Considering the pylon Chiarot at 50% got a first, third and fourth.... Not sure if that player will amount to anything but I gave him the value of the round he was drafted in.
The first is a year away so that means that pick doesn't help the team for like 4-5 years. Also it really should be a late pick, thinking 24-32. Mrazek is straight cap dump, negative value right now, so let's conservatively say he would cost a third to dump. Holl I'd say is pretty neutral value so just leave him out. You are looking at 2 good prospects, not great, and a late first while including a cap dump for a good defenceman with half retention.
Then you look at the trade and Rakell should easily get a second + and Gibson would be a big package to get a good starting goalie with term. Especially since they don't really have anyone to replace him.

I think Lindholm will be a 1st and a good prospect. Anything more is ridiculous to expect. There are more sellers than buyers. He's better than Manson but that only got you a 2nd and good prospect.

Everyone gets 14 firsts and everyone on the leafs is negative value. Yeah nothing new here.

Any team that is trading a first is a team picking 22-32 and you are hoping that those picks become Lily and Robertson type prospects.
If you were offered say pick 30-32 for Rakell and 22-24 for Lindholm you would rather the pick over the players offered?

Oh sorry I misread your comment, I thought you were agreeing with that guy. Same exact page on value Logan 👍. Only reason I'm saying he gets less than a 1st and Robertson alone is that I personally think Robertson is better than just a "good" prospect.

Anyone makes a trade involving the leafs and you are sure to be on there saying it's about 30% less than it should be. Rackell is probably worth Matthews if the Leafs retain 50%.

This is an interesting idea, its a huge swing for TO since they are left with just Gibson after this season but I think it would certainly make them a really good team for this year.

Leafs fans are true victims

I implore you to post an Armchair GM of your comment above that Lindholm is worth this whole package so you can get some feedback. And generally, I disagree with almost every point you've made.

The 1st is a year away intentionally because next year's draft is far deeper, and Toronto can only really fall in the standings. Consensus around the league is that a '23 1st is more valuable right now even than a '22

Your POV on the two prospects is confusing, because they're totally strong prospects. Not sure what you'd back that view up with. In fact, I think the NHL ranked Robertson in the top 20 to start the year. Not sure I'd go that far, but just helps to illustrate these aren't scrubs.

Gibson IS expendable right now because the Ducks DO have someone to replace him, and he's 28 so will be past his prime when the Ducks are competing. Stolarz is outplaying him this year, and Dostal is in the pipeline as the long-term solution.

EDIT: I also have a description of the value breakdown in the description if you'd like to give it a look 👍

Says the champion of trolls

Totally agree, and that's intentional so they'd actually move so much youth for expiring contracts 👍