Forums/Armchair-GM

Trading down conversation and possibilities

Created by: Blazingbat11
Initial Creation Date: May 17, 2022
Published: May 17, 2022
Team: 2022-23 Montreal Canadiens
Team Explanation
Here are some of my thoughts with regards to trading down. I'll start by saying that I think MTL will select Wright come July 7th. End of story. If Habs keep the 1st overall pick, they WILL pick Shane Wright. Can't really see any way they wouldn't. Too many ramifications if they don't..............HOWEVER.....

If MTL determine Wright isn't their guy, I'd say it's almost a certainty they try and trade down.
So what does that look like?
Trading down to 2nd overall won't happen. If MTL call NJD asking to move down one spot, NJD can safely make the assumption Habs don't want Wright, so why give up an additional asset to move up one spot.... won't happen.


So realistically, trading down begins with Arizona at 3rd overall, and I believe ends with Philly at 5th overall, as I don't see MTL trading out of the top 5.

ARI: Trading with Arizona for me would identify that MTL are happy with whoever will be left over from the 3 top choices of Wright, Cooley, and Slafkovsky or they REALLY want one of the available Dman (Nemec or Jiricek)...and getting an additional asset(s) on top of one of them.

SEA or PHI: Trading with either Seattle or Philly would signify that MTL are only targeting one of the defensemen (Nemec or Jiricek) and don't have any interest in any of the top 3 forwards. They value whichever Dman they choose, with the additional pieces that would be added from the trade, more than whoever is in the top 3.


So question for everyone, what would Arizona, Seattle, and Philly be willing to offer to move up to 1st overall? Keep in mind that MTL could still add pieces to the 1st overall pick depending on what is coming back.
Trades
1.
MTL
    3rd overall pick + what?
    ARI
      1st overall pick
      2.
      MTL
        4th overall pick + what?
        SEA
          1st overall pick
          3.
          MTL
            5th overall pick + what?
            PHI
              1st overall pick
              Buyouts
              • Karl Alzner: $833,333
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              17$82,500,000$64,314,166$1,132,500$1,570,000$18,185,834
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              May 17 at 2:27 p.m.
              #1
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              Habs take Wright, whether you like it or not
              May 17 at 2:28 p.m.
              #2
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              Quoting: raph222b
              Habs take Wright, whether you like it or not


              That's literally the first thing I wrote in my explanation....
              uncle_toto liked this.
              May 17 at 2:31 p.m.
              #3
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              I could see Philly offering like 5OA + Brink or something like that, not much more
              May 17 at 2:37 p.m.
              #4
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              Quoting: DH28Hockey
              I could see Philly offering like 5OA + Brink or something like that, not much more


              hmmm... I can see Pilly having a lot of interest in Wright seeing they already drafted his linemate from Kingston in Wisdom.

              Replace Brink with Frost?
              May 17 at 3:08 p.m.
              #5
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              Quoting: Blazingbat11
              hmmm... I can see Pilly having a lot of interest in Wright seeing they already drafted his linemate from Kingston in Wisdom.

              Replace Brink with Frost?


              That would work too, Frost looked like he was finally starting to figure it out at the end of the year, but Wright would take his spot anyways
              May 17 at 3:26 p.m.
              #6
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              Not interested at all in trading 1st OVA, why is this even being entertained? Unless a team is going to go crazy and give up their top 5 pick AND an unprotected 2023 1st we are keeping the 1st OVA as Wright fills our BIGGEST need.
              May 17 at 3:54 p.m.
              #7
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              Quoting: Campabee
              Not interested at all in trading 1st OVA, why is this even being entertained? Unless a team is going to go crazy and give up their top 5 pick AND an unprotected 2023 1st we are keeping the 1st OVA as Wright fills our BIGGEST need.


              As much as a lot of Habs fans are convinced that Shane Wright is the second coming of Patrice Bergeron (or better), there's too much info out there from so many scouting sources that indicate Wright's potential has a lot of doubt of being able to live up to the hype. You have to realize there IS a legit possibility Habs management won't like what they see, and the decide to pass on him. This conversation is just exploring that possibility.

              That being said, I fully expect MTL to select him 1st overall, and fingers crossed he can live up to everyone's expectations.
              May 17 at 3:59 p.m.
              #8
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              Quoting: Blazingbat11
              As much as a lot of Habs fans are convinced that Shane Wright is the second coming of Patrice Bergeron (or better), there's too much info out there from so many scouting sources that indicate Wright's potential has a lot of doubt of being able to live up to the hype. You have to realize there IS a legit possibility Habs management won't like what they see, and the decide to pass on him. This conversation is just exploring that possibility.

              That being said, I fully expect MTL to select him 1st overall, and fingers crossed he can live up to everyone's expectations.


              I don't like to rely on player comp's, every player is a different person both on and off the ice. The reason I am not interested in trading 1st OVA is because 1. Wright is the best player in this draft right now (maybe he ends up as the 5th best in 3-5 years maybe he remains the best) 2. Montreal's biggest need is at center 3. No one is offering a 2023 unprotected 1st + a top 5 pick this year as compensation.
              May 17 at 4:31 p.m.
              #9
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              Quoting: Campabee
              I don't like to rely on player comp's, every player is a different person both on and off the ice. The reason I am not interested in trading 1st OVA is because 1. Wright is the best player in this draft right now (maybe he ends up as the 5th best in 3-5 years maybe he remains the best) 2. Montreal's biggest need is at center 3. No one is offering a 2023 unprotected 1st + a top 5 pick this year as compensation.


              I agree with your 2nd and 3rd points, but for your 1st point is where that all becomes irrelevant. Regardless if Wright is the consensus best player, if he isn't 1st on Jeff Gorton, Kent Hughes, Martin Lapointe and all the Habs scouting team draft board. They won't pick him. and that is a legitimate possibility.

              So let's say Habs have Nemec as #1 on their draft board, Slafkovsky #2, Wright #3, Jiricek #4, and Cooley #5 (who knows), MTL will definitely look at maximizing their 1st overall pick and trading down, to get more value if they believe NJD and ARI don't have Nemec at #1 or #2 on their draft boards. That's how that works. If they believe NJD or ARI have him high on their draft board, they might just outright pick Nemec 1st overall (then the whole hockey world explodes)
              Again, this is all hypothetical. Definitely not unrealistic.
              May 17 at 6:32 p.m.
              #10
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              Quoting: Blazingbat11
              hmmm... I can see Pilly having a lot of interest in Wright seeing they already drafted his linemate from Kingston in Wisdom.

              Replace Brink with Frost?


              there is not nearly enough incentive to do that
               
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