I see there being three paths for the Leafs this season in goal (I have presented the one I would attempt if I were in charge).
Option 1- Try to obtain a top-5 or 10 starter from another team. Obviously extremely difficult. You need to find a team that isn't contending that would be wiling to let you overpay for that goalie. Nashville and Winnipeg are potential options here, but they seem unlikely to be willing to do that. Maybe you can get Kuemper as a UFA. This is a tough option because other teams generally want to keep really good goalies.
Option B- Run it back. Sign Campbell, and figure out what to do with Mrazek. Then you need to add another goalie (probably two) and you're in the same spot as last year, hopefully new guy can play better than Mrazek did, no guarantee and Campbell can give you more consistency.
Both of those options are either unlikely to happen or unlikely to produce success. I would prefer option C.
Option C- Try to find older, established veteran goalie at a reasonable number who can start and has some proven playoff success as a 1A. Then look for a younger guy who is trapped behind an established (or superior) starter and has some potential to blossom as a 1B.
Here are the options I would consider:
1A- Fleury, Varlamov (at a reduced rate somehow), Holtby, and Reimer is probably the list.
1B- Husso, Kahkonen, Georgiev, Stolarz, Korpisalo, Ingram, Vitacek, Samsonov.
Would love some feedback on what you think are some good goaltending options for the Leafs. I realize any move I make, as a Leafs fan, every other fanbase will scream that it's not enough and the value is all wrong. That may be true, but since none of us have any idea what that value is, let's focus on the theory behind the moves instead of picking at small details.
Note here that I have bought Mrazek out. While not an ideal solution I didn't want to argue about him anymore, so I took this road. It's one potential road open to the Leafs although I think it's more likely they trade him.
I also have no idea what they will do with their D core, so I left it as is, but certainly you can make a move there to free up needed salary cap space (having so little is a terrible idea). I just don't know which 6 of 7 they would prefer and I'm not sure they do either.
I am not going to argue about the value here. What is MORE likely is this trade uses a third team like Arizona to retain salary, meaning the Isles would get less. Yes I realize NYI isn't going to retain.
NYR has lots of UFA's and probably don't need to spend on Georgiev considering how good Shesterkin is. I can't imagine his market is much bigger than this.
Either way if the Isles get less I highly doubt it's only going to be a 4th. I'm pretty confident a team like NJ for example would take Varly at full freight for at least a 2nd round pick.
Varlamov at 50% retained ATLEAST gets a 2nd if not more
Please read the description. I doubt the Isles are the ones doing the retention but it's impossible to do a three team trade on here with salary retention.
Please read the description. I doubt the Isles are the ones doing the retention but it's impossible to do a three team trade on here with salary retention.
Yeah Isles wouldn’t retain 2.5 mil
I also heard something about Varlamov having all the Canadian teams on his NTC so him to Toronto is probably unlikely.
If I’m Dubas, I’d probably go after two of Reimer, Vanecek or Stolarz. Those seem like the most cheap, efficient and realistic options.
I also heard something about Varlamov having all the Canadian teams on his NTC so him to Toronto is probably unlikely.
If I’m Dubas, I’d probably go after two of Reimer, Vanecek or Stolarz. Those seem like the most cheap, efficient and realistic options.
I like those guys as well. I think Varlamov is the best fit. I get the Canadian thing, but he's got a chance to be the starter on a team that could win the stanley cup. He's a year away from UFA, he'll get more in that scenario then he will as Sorokin's backup again. Makes sense from his perspective. The Isles get to clear 5 mil off the books they can use to upgrade their roster. It seems to be wins all around.
I mentioned the Isles wouldn't retain, it's more likely they rinse the trade through an intermediary to retain some salary (helps both teams) but that's impossible to do in this exercise.
They should run it back with Campbell, he was clearly very good for them until he got hurt and then again was strong in the playoffs despite what stat-watchers will say. Realistically they aren't going to get someone better on the market
Give Campbell the Lehner deal (4x$5M) because he was an above average goalie by pretty much every metric this year.
Buy out Mrazek ($1.03M hit this year) and sign a generic backup for $1M. You're not spending a ton more on goalie in this situation- this season your tandem was Campbell at $1.65M and Mrazek at $3.8M, so you spent $5.45M on goalie; this plan has you spending $7.03M on goal instead so it's something you can live with. If you can find someone to eat Mrazek's deal at the cost of a mid-tier pick or prospect, go for it and enjoy that extra million.
Campbell makes the most sense because option 1 most likely costs more than you'd want to pay - as long as Toronto has all these big cap hit guys, they *need* guys on their ELCs/first RFA deals to fill out the bottom 6 & 3rd pair, and you're going to suffer if you keep trading all of your top picks and best prospects - exactly what you'd be sending out of you traded for a Connor Hellebuyck, for example.
Option C is less attractive because you're either once again spending assets to acquire Varlamov or Reimer, or you're hoping for a bounce-back season from Fleury or Holtby(both guys put up worse numbers than Campbell this season). The 1B tier is again guys you have to spend assets on or guys that are going to be looking for a bigger payday to be the starter somewhere else like Husso. I think Option C also probably winds up having the same type of cap hit as what I described above would have - maybe you get retention on a guy like Varlamov but you're once again, sending more assets out on that.
They should run it back with Campbell, he was clearly very good for them until he got hurt and then again was strong in the playoffs despite what stat-watchers will say. Realistically they aren't going to get someone better on the market
Quoting: dannibalcorpse
Give Campbell the Lehner deal (4x$5M) because he was an above average goalie by pretty much every metric this year.
Buy out Mrazek ($1.03M hit this year) and sign a generic backup for $1M. You're not spending a ton more on goalie in this situation- this season your tandem was Campbell at $1.65M and Mrazek at $3.8M, so you spent $5.45M on goalie; this plan has you spending $7.03M on goal instead so it's something you can live with. If you can find someone to eat Mrazek's deal at the cost of a mid-tier pick or prospect, go for it and enjoy that extra million.
Campbell makes the most sense because option 1 most likely costs more than you'd want to pay - as long as Toronto has all these big cap hit guys, they *need* guys on their ELCs/first RFA deals to fill out the bottom 6 & 3rd pair, and you're going to suffer if you keep trading all of your top picks and best prospects - exactly what you'd be sending out of you traded for a Connor Hellebuyck, for example.
Option C is less attractive because you're either once again spending assets to acquire Varlamov or Reimer, or you're hoping for a bounce-back season from Fleury or Holtby(both guys put up worse numbers than Campbell this season). The 1B tier is again guys you have to spend assets on or guys that are going to be looking for a bigger payday to be the starter somewhere else like Husso. I think Option C also probably winds up having the same type of cap hit as what I described above would have - maybe you get retention on a guy like Varlamov but you're once again, sending more assets out on that.
Totally see what you guys are saying. The only thing I am concerned about with an option B route is you are essentially locked in. There's no clear avenue to upgrade your goaltending again if the next season doesn't go well. I guess the question is, can you win a stanley cup with capable goaltending (since that's what Campbell provides). He's also 30, so a 4 year deal might be buying into his decline, even though he hasn't played a ton. It could work, but there's no wiggle room if it doesn't.
It's not an easy question at all and it will be fun to see how Dubas tries to solve the issue this offseason. Do you need an elite goalie to win a stanley cup? It could be hard to get out of the east without one. The Leafs win that series with Tampa Bay with better goaltending (Campbell was totally fine, but sometimes you need a guy to be better than fine).
To be honest, I would love Varlamov but I think Toronto is on his NTC and it would cost a bit to get him at a reduced number. I dont see Fleury coming to toronto and same with Holtby. I see them bringing in Georgiev if he goes unqualified but the 1A goalie is really leaving me confused on what will happen especially now hearing that Toronto and Campbell are far in talks
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