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Was typing before that ranking was posted, was referring to the list from @Ledge_and_Dairy

I know Knies is ranked higher than Robertson but didn't want to argue that because it isn't relevant to my point. It would still be a package greater than 2 1sts 2nd and 3rd.

His last year with the Leafs he played 73 games and 3rd line center, Kerfoot played all 82 games and on 2LW the entire season

Imagine taking something written by The Hockey Writers as fact lol. Like, their draft profiles are solid because they don’t have to make a decision, just give a scouting report and rough consensus range. Everything else on the site needs to be taken with a massive grain of salt. Like I was a big Lapierre fan in his draft year, but he’s not close to better than Quinn (or several other guys under him). Robertson and Amirov are simply not better than Pinto, Bourque, Bourgault, etc. I wouldn’t even take Robertson over Pelletier honestly. Similar point production in the AHL (Pelletier very slightly below PPG as a rookie, Robertson at exactly PPG as a sophomore despite being the same age), but Pelletier does more off the puck (and despite also being undersized, Pelletier is still significantly bigger than Robertson, 5’9” and 164 lbs just isn’t moving the needle, exactly two players were lighter than that last year and most of the guys in that weight range are high end contributors like Gaudreau, DeBrincat, and Spurgeon, and Robertson has yet to prove he’s close to that tier). At the very least they’re extremely comparable, and you’re telling me that Robertson’s the 20th best prospect but Pelletier’s the 44th? Give me a break. They’re good prospects who would go slightly higher in a redraft but none of them are great. Diversify where you get your information from and use reliable sources to find a consensus. Try to avoid Leafs bias, just because Toronto’s best prospects get talked about endlessly doesn’t mean they’re great prospects.

Button still has Niemela at 21 and Robertson 46

See my other response as well, but I have major issues with these rankings and don’t find THW reliable. Like even just looking at Leafs prospects it goes Robertson/Amirov/Niemela/Knies. Which might honestly be the reverse order, I’d definitely have Knies and Niemela as the top 2 prospects, Robertson had good AHL production but tiny forwards need to do a lot better than good AHL production in their DY+3 to crack the NHL (Gaudreau put up 3 ELITE college years and then cracked an NHL top line, DeBrincat put up 2 PPG in the OHL in his DY+1 and then a 50 point rookie season).

Also if you’re using the 9mil compensation package as the comparable, you’re barking up the wrong tree. If he was a 9mil player he’d be locked up already. He’ll likely be making 8 figures, maybe even 11mil. Power forwards that can score 40 goals and 100 points simply don’t exist anymore, and even if there are contract issues, he’s a desirable enough piece that plenty of other teams will blow that package out of the water. Like the Devils could offer 2oa+Holtz+Zacha or Sharangovich (go through ACGMs, Devils fans seem to be willing to do that), I don’t think the Leafs can realistically top that if that’s on the table for Tkachuk.

Knies had a great year, but immediately jumping to surefire top liner is a stretch. I think he’s raised his stock to be projected as a solid 2nd liner right now, but lets see him play a pro game first.

As for Niemela, there are only 2 players that have yet to play a pro game in NA where it would shock me that they don’t become a top 2 D and they are Sanderson and Edvinsson. Niemela (like almost every Leafs prospect) is undersized and has only ever played in Finland. He’ll need at least a year in the AHL to see if his game translates, and then we’ll have a better idea of if he could potentially be a top pair guy, but that’s too much of a leap at this point imo. Let him develop without immediately pinning him as the immediate saviour the second he shows a flash in a lower level league.

I’m sorry but Craig Button is the most unreliable writer in all of hockey. Nothing he ever writes about prospects can be believed. Agreeing with him on something will literally make me re-evaluate my opinions because that’s how often he is wrong.

The post i was talking about was before the thw one, Craig Button's from TSN. (just saw your response). Regardless though what matters is Dubas and Triliving's assessment of them and where they could find common ground.

Have poor connection, im typing responses and seems like they aren't going through.

I would also just like to point out to people GMs will look at more than one here and Tkachuk is just a point above point per game in the last 3 years.

Tkachuk is 24 and entering his prime. It’s reasonable to expect that even if this is his peak, he should be able to put up comparable numbers for the next 5 years at least. Also the last two years he’s been on the 2nd line, because Gaudreau is better and they hadn’t moved Tkachuk to RW yet so.

Oh for sure, you can expect growth and that some of what they saw last year is growth for sure-question is "how much?". They also need to put those numbers into context and a gm trading for him should exercise some caution (same thing with Treliving in terms of signing him) I expect him to get somewhere in the 90s next year since that line had unreal 5v5 production this year (can expect it to come down).

Both GMs would agree that he is going to get somewhere between 80-100, Treliving would try to convince Dubas that he would definitely get 100+ with Matthews and Marner. Dubas isn't just going to agree even if he believes it to be true (same with other GMs trading for him) and would try to value him closest to a pt/game player as possible.

It's the same for Miller and the unicorn, Kadri, who got a ~90pt career high with his career rate being sub PPG and he did it at an age that no one really has.

They would all have demand but teams looking to retain them for long-term based off this year alone will exercise caution to varying since Tkachuk is entering his prime, Miller is in it closer to the end, and Kadri is at an age where NHL forwards are typically not in their prime anymore or expected to exit.

If the scoring continues to be high going forward, the standards of evaluating players should change too, luckily for Tkachuk and Kadri, they might be able to cash in before that.