NHL Analytical Standing Predictions

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: Devil

Team: 2022-23 Custom Team

Initial Creation Date: Oct. 7, 2022

Published: Oct. 11, 2022

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Continuation of Jfresh's twitter posts
https://twitter.com/JFreshHockey/status/1578821817896431616
https://twitter.com/JFreshHockey/status/1578806577976311808
https://twitter.com/JFreshHockey/status/1578790891795677190
https://twitter.com/JFreshHockey/status/1578769277812736000

Averaging the totals from Bulsink Bot, The Athletic, JFresh, Evolving Hockey, Puck, TopDown Hockey, 538, and Hockey Viz to get most analytically accurate point predictions

Atlantic Division:
Florida Panthers: 105
Toronto Maple Leafs: 105
Tampa Bay Lightning: 103
Boston Bruins: 103
Ottawa Senators: 87
Detroit Red Wings: 84
Buffalo Sabres: 80
Montreal Canadiens: 74

Metropolitan Division
Carolina Hurricanes: 102
Washington Capitals: 98
Pittsburgh Penguins: 97
New York Rangers: 97
New York Islanders: 92
New Jersey Devils: 89
Columbus Blue Jackets: 80
Philadelphia Flyers: 74

Central Division
Colorado Avalanche: 107
Minnesota Wild: 102
Nashville Predators: 95
St. Louis Blues: 95
Dallas Stars: 93
Winnipeg Jets: 89
Chicago Blackhawks: 70
Arizona Coyotes: 70

Pacific Division
Calgary Flames: 103
Edmonton Oilers: 100
Vegas Golden Knights: 95
Vancouver Canucks: 94
Los Angeles Kings: 92
Seattle Kraken: 85
Anaheim Ducks: 82
San Jose Sharks: 78

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

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TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
32	$82,500,000	$48,099,277	$0	$1,527,500	$34,400,723

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Balcers, Rūdolfs $750,000$750,000 LW, RW UFA - 1		Aho, Sebastian $8,460,250$8,460,250 C UFA - 2
Abramov, Mikhail $809,444$809,444 C RFA - 2		Alexeyev, Alexander $863,333$863,333 LD/RD RFA - 1
Barré-Boulet, Alex $758,333$758,333 RW, LW UFA - 2		Andonovski, Corey $925,000$925,000 RW RFA - 2
Ahcan, Jack $750,000$750,000 LD UFA - 1		Blais, Samuel $1,525,000$1,525,000 LW, RW UFA - 1
Aspirot, Jonathan $768,333$768,333 LD UFA - 1		Adams, Collin $800,000$800,000 LW UFA - 1
Andreasson, Pontus $842,500$842,500 ($82,500$82K) C, LW UFA - 1		Bahl, Kevin $795,000$795,000 ($82,500$82K) LD RFA - 1
Asplund, Rasmus $825,000$825,000 LW, C RFA - 1		Angle, Tyler $850,833$850,833 ($82,500$82K) C RFA - 2
Anderson, Josh $5,500,000$5,500,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 5		Allison, Wade $785,000$785,000 RW RFA - 2

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Aamodt, Wyatt $925,000$925,000 LD RFA - 1	Andersson, Rasmus $4,550,000$4,550,000 RD UFA - 4
Addison, Calen $795,000$795,000 ($82,500$82K) RD RFA - 1	Barrie, Tyson $4,500,000$4,500,000 RD UFA - 2
Afanasyev, Egor $789,167$789,167 ($132,500$132K) C, LW RFA - 2	Ahac, Layton $897,500$897,500 LD RFA - 2
Acciari, Noel $1,250,000$1,250,000 C, RW UFA - 1	Åman, Nils $883,750$883,750 ($82,500$82K) C RFA - 2
Arcuri, Francesco $841,667$841,667 C RFA - 4	Allard, Frédéric $750,000$750,000 RD UFA - 1
Appleton, Mason $2,166,667$2,166,667 RW UFA - 3	Beniers, Matthew $897,500$897,500 ($925,000$925K) C RFA - 2
Allan, Nolan $847,500$847,500 LD RFA - 4	Andersson, Axel $772,500$772,500 ($57,500$58K) RD UFA - 1
Bjugstad, Nick $450,000$450,000 C, RW UFA - 1	Agozzino, Andrew $775,000$775,000 C, LW UFA - 2

Oct. 11, 2022 at 7:50 a.m.

cMac73

Sway4Vezina

Joined: Nov. 2021

Posts: 809

Likes: 361

For the Atlantic Division, people don’t realize how close it was last year, at least between spots 2-4. When the Bruins are healthy, they could be just as good as any team in their division, especially with the significant downgrades from other teams. By the end of the year, spots 1-4 should be tight. And again, I think Boston will for sure be in that mix as when healthy, they have an improved lineup from last year. There isn’t much logic to thinking the Senators finish ahead of them simply because they were a 73 point team last year. They’ll develop a winning culture and eventually make the playoffs but only after they have an 80-90 point season, and they improve their awful defense

Oct. 11, 2022 at 8:22 a.m.

Austerity

Joined: Apr. 2019

Posts: 174

Likes: 56

I agree that Boston is mad underrated right now. There are concerns that Krecji may not be as good as two years ago, and the Bruins being pretty injured to start the season, but come playoff time they still have one of the more threatening rosters with one of the best top lines in the league, good defensive depth, and one of the best defensemen in the league with McAvoy.

I think Toronto has only improved their roster from last year, however, and for the regular season I think it's tough to see Boston being the better team.

Oct. 11, 2022 at 8:36 a.m.

CD282

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,091

Likes: 7,772

So, nobody over 107 points? That doesn't seem likely. Your method has all the good teams getting worse and all the bad teams getting better. Maybe it's not the most accurate way after all?

Oct. 11, 2022 at 9:53 a.m.

earl08

Joined: Jan. 2019

Posts: 3,773

Likes: 974

Quoting: CD282

So, nobody over 107 points? That doesn't seem likely. Your method has all the good teams getting worse and all the bad teams getting better. Maybe it's not the most accurate way after all?

Averaging compresses the results. Not sure if point totals are accurate, but standings should be, based on the data.

CD282 liked this.

Oct. 11, 2022 at 9:56 a.m.

CD282

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,091

Likes: 7,772

Quoting: earl08

Averaging compresses the results. Not sure if point totals are accurate, but standings should be, based on the data.

Exactly my point. It's not possible to be "the most accurate" due to the averaging.

Oct. 11, 2022 at 12:32 p.m.

Xqb15a

Joined: Aug. 2020

Posts: 11,468

Likes: 9,108

If AZ AND CHI both get 70 pts I would be beyond shocked. They actively suck and are looking to get worse. They are going to be so bad it might be embarrassing for the league.

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