You created a "conundrum" by paying Mayfield Isles 3rd pairing Dman 4.5m. Let's hope Timmins.Hollowell or someone else can fill that spot cheaper.
Samsonov should get more if he's a number one goalie. 3rd pairing Brodie doesn't get paid that much . LHD are one of the easiest positions to fill
If Killorn settles for 1m contract it will be with Tampa. No way Kampf takes a decrease in pay. No Holmberg? ZAR still on team?
25m for Matthew and Nylander. Yep that might be the going rate. But no reason those UFAs resign with the Leafs, or the Leafs find other UFAs to fill those positions.

If you don't like Mayfield, that's fine. He's a placeholder for Holl replacement. It would be amazing if we find a top pair RHD to ride with Mo from within, but it's unlikely at this point, IMO. Lilly could get there, but he doesn't seem like he's really the right compliment to Rielly. Samsonov is RFA this summer so he'll have minimal negotiation leverage and I think if they resign him, $3.5M is about right (considering he's likely to be splitting time with Murray for another year before potentially being the outright starter in 2024-25). I guarantee someone will pay Brodie $3.5 if his play remains consistent until he's up. He's worth far more than that currently, but he's getting older so a small pay cut seems reasonable. You're probably right about Killorn, but again, he's a space filler for a player of similar ilk. Kampf's market value is basically replacement level so I don't think he says no to some contract security (let's not forget he was barely playable before coming to the Leafs). Holmberg was a bit of an oversight for sure, but there's no guarantee he continues to improve. Put him in there for Kampf if you like. ZAR could very well remain with this team in a 4th line grinder role for a few more years, but replace him with someone similar if you want. As for resigning AM & WN, that was the entire purpose of the exercise ... to see how they can roster a squad with those guys at their larger numbers, while still paying JT his full rate in the last year of that contract.

too many of the same average guys and some pretty big underpayments to the UFAs. And no real thought of what price will be paid at TDLs or age.

Also for a team that barely has brought in any rookies the rest 3 years or so, suddenly theyll have minten, robertson, knies, hirvonen AND niemala in the lineup?

Thats alot of hope that sandin, liljegren AND almost every prospect hits big. And then collecting a bunch of old guys (Jankrot, ZAR, Brodie, Kilhorn) and banking on some pretty unreliable goaltending.

Pretty hard to predict any TDL action. Maybe you're right that some UFAs are underpaid in this, but the main goal in doing this was to see what a roster could look like assuming roughly $24-25M for AM & WN (with JT still at $11M). Basically it looks like a long shot to ice a cup-contending roster unless the prospect pan out to a degree.

That said, I don't think projecting Sandin & Lilly soaking up 2nd pair minutes is much of a stretch though considering they're accomplishing that well today. Based on trajectories, Robertson and Knies should be able to contribute, although maybe not that high in the lineup. Niemela as a 3rd pairing D man is 100% not a reach 3 years from now, if you look at some of the third pairings in the NHL today. Hirvonen, Minten and the goaltending are the reaches, IMO. Just shows what needs to go right for Leafs to continue this quality for that season. Unless you have any other ideas that don't involve trading WN or losing AM?