Quoting: BigShoots
I think my last post laid out pretty succinctly that Petersen was never the goalie you thought he was. He did not play well on a bad team. He was a -3.1 in goals saved above expected. Your response I think has shown you didn't understand how good Demko has been. He was in on the periphery of the Vezina talk last yr on an awful team.
The simple fact is you are being misled by the traditional counting stats. Wins and save % often don't tell the whole story, so I dont blame you for being unaware. You walked it back from "the only difference is the way the team is treating them" to "Im not saying they're equal value" now you're just 1 more step away from getting it right.
I hear your concern over the 15 games Demko played this season but I would suggest you're overvalueing those 15 games. To give you an idea, even if Demko comes back and he tanks the rest of the season he has far more value than Petersen given he was actually good every yr previously.
I walked nothing back. I never contended they were equal value. I said that they were both good goaltenders that were playing well previously and have not this season, and that it's asinine to think that one should carry top quality value while the other has negative value.
I think you are being misled by GSAx. That stat is similarly flawed because it relies entirely on "high/medium/low danger chances" which are entirely based on where the shot originated. It does not account for odd-man rushes, one-timers, or traffic in front of the net. A shot from the point through traffic will count as low danger, while multiple whacks at a puck from the slot directly into the goaltenders pad will count as multiple high-danger chances.
You like Demko because he's your team's goalie. I get it. I similarly like Cal Petersen because he's my team's goalie. However, I at least admit that he's not playing well and that his value should suffer accordingly. His value is, in fact, negative right now.
I do not believe that Demko's value is negative. He definitely wouldn't clear waivers like Petersen did. However, I do not think anyone would give up a 1st round pick for him. If Vancouver were to retain 25% of his salary, I think they could likely get a 2nd. That's a far cry from "1st and a prospect."