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Fantilli turns Pro and MTL buys out Armia

Created by: Billy316
Team: 2023-24 Montreal Canadiens
Initial Creation Date: Mar. 13, 2023
Published: Mar. 13, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
This post is my Prediction on what will happen so i can see how close i was.
If it was moves i wanted purely i'd Flip the FLA pick to STL and probably target Debrincat or PLD
But i feel neither ultimately ends up in MTL although im sure they use MTL as a Stalking Horse like many French Players have.
(Briere, Matheson , Perron, even Demers among many others)

I think MTL pick 5th OA is upgraded via Lotto for 3rd OA pick behind CHI and SJS. I think they select Bedard and Michkov. Michkov who's tearing up the KHL since his loan to team that can play him(went from TBL to CAR basically). SJS can afford to wait as skill wise all contract issues aside there are 2 elite players in this draft then a bunch of Future All Star and league leaders. But the gap between Bedard/Michkov and everyone else is wide. For a team just starting a rebuild the needed timeline doesnt intimidate them (atleast i dont think it would unless im wrong about the rebuild and its just a retool?)

-3rd OA MTL take Adam Fantilli

-15th OA MTL takes Eduard Sale or Dalibor Dvorsky rather then trade down when VAN and ARZ pick outside predicted rankings taking Reinbacher and Sandin-Pellikka .Similar to the free fall of Chychrun when BUF took A.Nylander over project Mikhail Sergachev. It happened again with Caufield when DET took Seider outta no where as i think the 3rd ranked D that year at 5th OA(clearly smart) but it started a domino effected

-28th OA MTL takes Michael Harabal(G)- Future Starter IMO but like 4-5 years work needed.

-37th OA MTL takes Oliver Bonk(RD)- Josh Gorges type who covers offensive Defensman.


Draft picks after that are a much longer conversation and i tap out at 2 rounds .
Onto the next problem to tackle being Roster Space and that means Armia is gone.

Armia's Buyout might span 4 years but
-34K year 1
-1.03m year 2
-143m year 3 and 4

Well IMO is just worth it to clear 3.35m on the high end and just under 2m cap on the low end.
If we could bury his contract for that cap hit , i'd keep him but his contract forced this conclusion.

I figure a gamble on Peterson could pay off given Sean Burke helped turn Smith and Dubnyks career's around as well as Montembaults for that matter.
Whats the harm in gambling on Peterson in a possible 3 goalie tandem as we have our AHL team close for call ups anyways if needed if he overachieves.
We can also keep him down to Laval and still have Burke work closely with him until Allen gets injured again
No real downside to the deal unless you look at it as MTL adding a year term .
Which is true but i see it as worst case Primeau is in a tandem with one of the AHL's best Veteran Goalies.


As i know someone will ask "what about Ylonen?"
Consistency is an issue but he'll earn his starts until Gally gets injured in November as per tradition.
Once Gally's on IR he'll have all the minutes he can handle and more.

Same idea with Harris but he'll cycle in for Barron, Kovacevic and Xhekaj often enough until Matheson goes on IR again.
Well really until anyone goes on IR again i just feel it'll be Matheson again
Free Agent Signings
RESERVE LISTYEARSCAP HIT
2$900,000
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$800,000
1$800,000
8$7,875,000
2$950,000
2$950,000
2$950,000
1$950,000
1$950,000
1$950,000
CREATEDYEARSCAP HIT
Fantilli, Adam
3$950,000
Trades
1.
MTL
  1. 2023 1st round pick (COL)
Additional Details:
MTL trades Jake Evans with 2 years remaiing on 1.7m deal in exchange for their 2023 1st round pick currently ranked 19th OA but i expect to be 25th -32nd overall at the time this post happens as it starts at the Draft.

Im Calling it the 28th OA pick assuming Landeskog is healthy for the playoffs.
COL
  1. Evans, Jake
  2. 2024 2nd round pick (COL)
Additional Details:
MTL gives back the 2nd from the Lehkonen deal in the Evans trade
2.
MTL
    -If ARZ can flip Hoffman then MTL's Conditional 3rd reverts back and ARZ pays nothing for Hoffman or RS.

    -IF ARZ flips Hoffman for a deal involving a 1st round pick then the 2024 3rd round pick (ARZ) becomes a 2024 2nd round pick(MTL)ARZ gets someone to help them with meeting their cap floor who they can play for 3-4 months then flip for a profit .
    ARI
    1. Hoffman, Mike ($2,250,000 retained)
    Additional Details:
    This deal helps MTL Give RHP a 1 year window to solidify himself before he get pushed out by anyone player like Slafkovsky , Ferrell ,Roy or any number of the special teams guys who will eat up his minutes.The idea here is to maybe take a little less now but this additional year of building up RHP's value like CHI did with Hagel before cashing in big.If we can get RHP to that 20 goal mark we're sitting pretty.
    3.
    MTL
    1. Grans, Helge
    2. Petersen, Cal
    Additional Details:
    LAK can eliminate a year term with Eddy
    Add experience in a Cup Tandem even if its just to bury him and save 1m per year keeping him as insurance
    LAK
    1. Edmundson, Joel
    2. Norlinder, Mattias
    Additional Details:
    Eddy or Allen
    Buyouts
    Retained Salary Transactions
    Buried
    DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
    2023
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the FLA
    Logo of the COL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the PIT
    Logo of the VGK
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the CGY
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    2024
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the SJS
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the EDM
    2025
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the CGY
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
    23$82,500,000$67,467,499$1,170,000$4,275,000$15,032,501
    Left WingCentreRight Wing
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $7,875,000$7,875,000
    LW, RW
    UFA - 8
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $7,875,000$7,875,000
    C
    UFA - 7
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $3,362,500$3,362,500
    C, RW
    RFA - 3
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $950,000$950,000 (Performance Bonus$3,500,000$4M)
    RW, LW
    RFA - 2
    Fantilli, Adam
    $950,000$950,000
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $5,500,000$5,500,000
    RW, LW
    M-NTC
    UFA - 4
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $950,000$950,000
    LW, RW
    RFA - 2
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $4,450,000$4,450,000
    C
    M-NTC
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $6,500,000$6,500,000
    RW, LW
    M-NTC, NMC
    UFA - 4
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $885,000$885,000 (Performance Bonus$80,000$80K)
    C
    RFA - 3
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $950,000$950,000
    RW, LW
    UFA
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $950,000$950,000
    LW, RW
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $1,100,000$1,100,000
    LW, RW
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $950,000$950,000
    RW, LW
    RFA - 1
    Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $4,875,000$4,875,000
    LD
    M-NTC
    UFA - 3
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $3,500,000$3,500,000
    RD
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $1,000,000$1,000,000
    G
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$420,000$420K)
    LD/RD
    RFA - 2
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$275,000$275K)
    RD
    RFA - 1
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $1,925,000$1,925,000
    G
    M-NTC
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $828,333$828,333
    LD/RD
    RFA - 1
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $766,667$766,667
    RD
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $1,400,000$1,400,000
    LD/RD
    RFA - 2
    ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
    Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
    $10,500,000$10,500,000
    G
    NMC
    UFA - 3

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    Mar. 13, 2023 at 7:12 p.m.
    #26
    I Love J Boqvist
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    Quoting: Billy316
    44% of all NJD faceofs are taken by Haula and Mcleod.
    So they both play 4th line Center is what you're saying ?

    If Boqvist is a Center , so is Josh Anderson and Gallagher.
    Being forced to lose faceoffs at a 35 and 37% win rate at 350-550 draws isnt a strong argument.
    By that logic Drouin's a great Center , said no one ever.

    I'll give you 2 of those people you have signed that you named.
    But Haula is sketchy as he's playing 2nd line minutes on most teams
    Mcleod is legit a 4th Liner and IMO probably one of the NHL's best just like Sissons was in NSH before he grew into a Middle 6 guy.

    You're offering up better quality in RFA's and a guy who's not been called a 4th line center since Minnisota. He may have been inconsistent and had stints there but never stays there.

    Faksa has been playing 4th line for like 5 + years
    Bellmare has been playing 4th line Center for a Decade.

    That's what i was talking about.
    But if you can find a better player who can win faceoffs who is AVAILABLE then i'd do it to.
    But what you did was look only and go "there's a C by his name , all C's are created equal , clearly"

    But now that you brought it up how much is Mcleod going for since he's Available?


    Oh so your only argument is he wins faceoffs at a decent rate.

    your best comparable of a recent trade is Lazar, who was 700k a year cheaper and just went for a 4th round pick
    TraderJoes liked this.
    Mar. 13, 2023 at 7:14 p.m.
    #27
    I Love J Boqvist
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    Joined: Jan. 2023
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    Quoting: Billy316
    44% of all NJD faceofs are taken by Haula and Mcleod.
    So they both play 4th line Center is what you're saying ?

    If Boqvist is a Center , so is Josh Anderson and Gallagher.
    Being forced to lose faceoffs at a 35 and 37% win rate at 350-550 draws isnt a strong argument.
    By that logic Drouin's a great Center , said no one ever.

    I'll give you 2 of those people you have signed that you named.
    But Haula is sketchy as he's playing 2nd line minutes on most teams
    Mcleod is legit a 4th Liner and IMO probably one of the NHL's best just like Sissons was in NSH before he grew into a Middle 6 guy.

    You're offering up better quality in RFA's and a guy who's not been called a 4th line center since Minnisota. He may have been inconsistent and had stints there but never stays there.

    Faksa has been playing 4th line for like 5 + years
    Bellmare has been playing 4th line Center for a Decade.

    That's what i was talking about.
    But if you can find a better player who can win faceoffs who is AVAILABLE then i'd do it to.
    But what you did was look only and go "there's a C by his name , all C's are created equal , clearly"

    But now that you brought it up how much is Mcleod going for since he's Available?


    Mcleod would go for a 3rd tops.
    Mar. 13, 2023 at 7:16 p.m.
    #28
    I Love J Boqvist
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    Joined: Jan. 2023
    Posts: 12,022
    Likes: 3,180
    Quoting: Billy316
    44% of all NJD faceofs are taken by Haula and Mcleod.
    So they both play 4th line Center is what you're saying ?

    If Boqvist is a Center , so is Josh Anderson and Gallagher.
    Being forced to lose faceoffs at a 35 and 37% win rate at 350-550 draws isnt a strong argument.
    By that logic Drouin's a great Center , said no one ever.

    I'll give you 2 of those people you have signed that you named.
    But Haula is sketchy as he's playing 2nd line minutes on most teams
    Mcleod is legit a 4th Liner and IMO probably one of the NHL's best just like Sissons was in NSH before he grew into a Middle 6 guy.

    You're offering up better quality in RFA's and a guy who's not been called a 4th line center since Minnisota. He may have been inconsistent and had stints there but never stays there.

    Faksa has been playing 4th line for like 5 + years
    Bellmare has been playing 4th line Center for a Decade.

    That's what i was talking about.
    But if you can find a better player who can win faceoffs who is AVAILABLE then i'd do it to.
    But what you did was look only and go "there's a C by his name , all C's are created equal , clearly"

    But now that you brought it up how much is Mcleod going for since he's Available?


    Boqvist drives play better and is a better Center than Evans (and Mcleod). Faceoffs are not that valuable an asset in today's game
    Mar. 14, 2023 at 8:50 a.m.
    #29
    Thread Starter
    Jesus Christ Is King
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    Quoting: dgibb10
    Mcleod would go for a 3rd tops.


    Thats it , really?

    **** i think i found my new favorite trade to make .
    Thanks buddy
    Mar. 14, 2023 at 8:54 a.m.
    #30
    Thread Starter
    Jesus Christ Is King
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    Joined: Mar. 2017
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    Quoting: dgibb10
    Boqvist drives play better and is a better Center than Evans (and Mcleod). Faceoffs are not that valuable an asset in today's game


    No Boqvist is a much better player then Evans , thats not being debated.
    Evans is a Superior Center though.
    Only those who didnt play think anyone can step into that role .
    Not only are you in charge of distributing the puck and setting the play.
    You're responsible for the middle of the ice with sticks in multiple lanes
    The idea is to control traffic to where you want it to go

    Pitlick plays Center as much as Boqvist last year
    He had his best season to date but MSL doesnt feel he's a center (his words on why Belzile>Pitlick at 4th C)

    Again Boqvist >Evans forsure overall
    But at Center Evans is better
    Mar. 14, 2023 at 9:07 a.m.
    #31
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    How did you get to pick 3rd overall? MTL currently holds the 5th pick, if they win the lottery they'll pick 1st or 2nd. If someone behind them wins the lottery they'll pick 6th or 7th.

    I don't see a path to 3rd overall through the lottery.
    Mar. 14, 2023 at 10:05 a.m.
    #32
    Thread Starter
    Jesus Christ Is King
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    Quoting: TraderJoes
    How did you get to pick 3rd overall? MTL currently holds the 5th pick, if they win the lottery they'll pick 1st or 2nd. If someone behind them wins the lottery they'll pick 6th or 7th.

    I don't see a path to 3rd overall through the lottery.


    Read the post Description its a Prediction
    The post is for the Draft or starting then after the Lotto

    If you would read what you comment on you wouldnt be so confused.
    Of the 2 page's worth of comments you're the single person that was confused by this
    Mar. 14, 2023 at 10:21 a.m.
    #33
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    Quoting: Billy316
    Read the post Description its a Prediction
    The post is for the Draft or starting then after the Lotto

    If you would read what you comment on you wouldnt be so confused.
    Of the 2 page's worth of comments you're the single person that was confused by this

    Your introduction says "I think MTL pick 5th OA is upgraded via Lotto for 3rd OA pick behind CHI and SJS." I just pointed out that this is impossible. Only picks 1 and 2 are available in the lottery.

    Someone is confused here and it's not me.
     
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