What is Dubois Value Now based on Friedman

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Created by: Howie

Team: 2022-23 Winnipeg Jets

Initial Creation Date: Mar. 27, 2023

Published: Mar. 27, 2023

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

This agm is to find a deal that works for both sides as with Dubois most likely going to mtl. Finding something may be hard so instead I outline the assets that make sense to make a deal work in terms of asset classes. These classes will be divided by picks, prospects and nhl/cap.

Hope that this is useful in making discussion so we can better understand how we each see it so a more connected way of a deal can be made. The last thing I like seeing is deals that obviously favor one side and are defended by the creator saying "no leverage".

Mtl needs to beat the rental offer so a random b prospect and a 2nd won't be enough on that front.

Thanks for reading and hope this was able to find a way to make a connected view.

Trades

WPG

2023 1st round pick (FLA)

Additional Details:

Asset Class 1 Picks

Wildly considered the main asset that goes for Dubois with mtl already having a top 10 pick. The range of the pick could be from 14-20 but for this I'm assuming a middle ground of 17th overall. This would allow for a player with team control from a strong class to come up with the team. Pick would be match with a dach type move to help the team while fitting the timeline.

Jets would get this pick and hope someone drops but 2 mid teen picks would be desirable to a changing core.

MTL

Dubois, Pierre-Luc

Additional Details:

*not actual trade

WPG

2024 1st round pick (MTL)

Additional Details:

2024 1st round pick

This pick would most likely be moved in the case that a move at the draft doesn't work out. Protection would be on this pick most likely with top 10 making sense. This pick would be a counter to a 2023 first but comes at the risk of giving away a 2025 unprotected first depending on mtl performance.

Jets would likely prefer a 2023 first to avoid the wait on the pick and thus the process of changing the core.

MTL

WPG

Additional Details:

Asset class 2
Prospects

I included all the prospects that could be included in a deal some may be more more likely than others and one that would require only 1 prospect (roy)

Beck: young c that is probably a middle six guy that is just all around a good player
Kidney: young c that has shown qmjhl success and has more offensive playstyle buy also probably a middle sixer
Mailloux: young rhd that has size and a shot. Has controversy around him being able to play so may be a risk but fits the organizational needs better
Mesar: young winger that has offensive instincts and great offensive skill set probably middle six/2nd line guy
Roy: best guy that probably not included but here anyway as a way to demonstrate that the changing of prospects can affect how many assets are included
Kapanen: young center in liiga that has some offensive and probably a middle six to 3rd line c

Any other prospects could be included but not mentioned can be discussed in the comments to make sure that what I have here makes sense

MTL

WPG

Additional Details:

Asset Class 3
Nhl/cap

The nhl is a cap in cap out world so most likely some form of cap would be coming back to ensure mtl can afford him and not have an existing contract affect the teams future.

Armia: (2y 3.4m remaining) could be useful bottom six guy that he was before we traded him but may increase the return with many agms dumping with for assets
Dvorak: (2y 4.45m 8 team no trade list for those 2 years) could be a 2/3c for a couple years to replace Dubois and may be able to be flipped in the future for more assets
Hoffman (1y 4.5m) good scoring winger to help pp but would most likely be bottom six which is unideal for a guy like him (1 year would come off the books first)
Anderson:(4y 5.5m 8 team no trade list until final year 2026-2027 5 team no trade list) it honestly wouldn't be an Dubois mtl agm without him. He provides a physical role but most likely bottom six and expensive for that role.

MTL

WPG

2023 7th round pick (MTL)

Additional Details:

My prediction here is based on 1 of the picks (here 2023 one) 2 of the prospects (kidney and mesar) and 1 nhl player (Dvorak)

This deal may not he exactly perfect but isn't the point but to create a way to figure out what makes sense for both sides.

MTL

This is here for those that say to wait to ufa:
This is the assumption that a trade is evident and most likely needs to beat the standard rental offer (1st prospect and other asset). So instead of saying that they wait respect that this is more to figure out what he's worth as a trade this offseason.

You are entitled to you view but this is in no way saying a trade is going to happen but to figure out his new value based on the Friedman news.

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2023
2024
2025

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
34	$82,500,000	$101,562,859	$0	$2,132,500	-$19,062,859

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Connor, Kyle $7,142,857$7,142,857 LW UFA - 4	Scheifele, Mark $6,125,000$6,125,000 C M-NTC UFA - 2	Wheeler, Blake $8,250,000$8,250,000 RW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 2
Niederreiter, Nino $4,000,000$4,000,000 LW, RW UFA - 2		Ehlers, Nikolaj $6,000,000$6,000,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 3
Namestnikov, Vladislav $1,250,000$1,250,000 LW, RW, C M-NTC UFA - 1	Lowry, Adam $3,250,000$3,250,000 C M-NTC UFA - 4	Appleton, Mason $2,166,667$2,166,667 RW UFA - 3
Barron, Morgan $925,000$925,000 ($850,000$850K) LW, RW RFA - 1	Stenlund, Kevin $750,000$750,000 C, RW UFA - 1	Kuhlman, Karson $825,000$825,000 RW UFA - 1
Gustafsson, David $775,000$775,000 LW, C RFA - 2	Beck, Owen $916,667$916,667 C RFA - 4	Maenalanen, Saku $750,000$750,000 RW, LW UFA - 1
Jonsson-Fjällby, Axel $750,000$750,000 LW UFA - 1	Kidney, Riley $859,167$859,167 C RFA - 4	Gagner, Sam $750,000$750,000 RW, C UFA - 1
Hoffman, Mike $4,500,000$4,500,000 LW UFA - 2	Dvorak, Christian $4,450,000$4,450,000 C UFA - 3	Mesar, Filip $950,000$950,000 RW, C RFA - 4
		Roy, Joshua $856,667$856,667 ($82,500$82K) LW, RW RFA - 4
		Armia, Joel $3,400,000$3,400,000 RW, LW UFA - 3
		Anderson, Josh $5,500,000$5,500,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 5

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Morrissey, Joshua $6,250,000$6,250,000 LD NMC UFA - 6	Pionk, Neal $5,875,000$5,875,000 RD UFA - 3	Hellebuyck, Connor $6,166,667$6,166,667 G UFA - 2
Schmidt, Nate $5,950,000$5,950,000 LD/RD M-NTC UFA - 3	DeMelo, Dylan $3,000,000$3,000,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 2	Rittich, David $900,000$900,000 G UFA - 1
Mailloux, Logan $897,500$897,500 RD RFA - 4
Dillon, Brenden $3,900,000$3,900,000 LD UFA - 2
Samberg, Dylan $925,000$925,000 ($350,000$350K) LD RFA - 1
Stanley, Logan $900,000$900,000 LD RFA - 1
Capobianco, Kyle $762,500$762,500 LD UFA - 2

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
	Perfetti, Cole $894,167$894,167 ($850,000$850K) LW, C RFA - 2

Mar. 27, 2023 at 8:02 p.m.

#26

habitantlecolon

Le patriote

Joined: Dec. 2018

Posts: 6,354

Likes: 1,410

Quoting: Howie

How is that offer better lol I'd rather you guys os him as we basically get a guaranteed top 10 pick with no conditions. How is getting a pick 2 drafts later with conditions, Mailloux who has risks, ylonen who would see his value diminish and Dvorak who sure gives us a c back but ultimately isn't a need. Can you please explain how the deal is better than an os. We don't take on cap and get the best pick possible so that's kinda hard to beat.

Mailloux will be cleared as for the rest i have explained how this is higher than 1st and 3rd. You guys starting to look delusionnal to me!

Mar. 27, 2023 at 8:15 p.m.

#27

Howie

Thread Starter

Joined: Jan. 2022

Posts: 4,018

Likes: 1,446

Quoting: habitantlecolon

Mailloux will be cleared as for the rest i have explained how this is higher than 1st and 3rd. You guys starting to look delusionnal to me!

How is it delusional to understand value so let's compare the options
Os
Unprotected 2024 first which can be 1st but most likely top 10 guaranteed. 2024 3rd likely early 70s but with the draft class is not terrible. Not taking on cap for any term and no media backlash for any players taken on.
Your deal is a 2025 protected 1st that could be in the 20s which is a long wait for a worse pick. Ylonen does nothing for the jets and would not be a long term guy and just diminish his value. Mailloux is probably around a 2nd in value rn as he was a late 1st and has issues where CURRENTLY he is not eligible to play based on his actions. To take him as a 1st round value is high praise for a guy that has done Nothing to help his value and is a major risk with the uncertainty. Dvorak is a center that may get a role but is injured and just a cap coming in that isn't a direct need, he can be in the deal just not valued that high whatsoever.
Compare
Os gives better pick, no cap, multiple picks, roster spot for internal growth. So no your deal is just plain bad but reason saying "no leverage" while the jets can just take their business to the place that gives them the return they want which this isn't.

Mar. 28, 2023 at 10:03 a.m.

#28

Billy316

Jesus Christ Is King

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 2,576

Likes: 723

Quoting: Howie

He's saying if they took OS they'd get a better offer and not have to take on a contract.
just a 1st ,2nd and 3rd round pick in 2024 but the issue is MTL traded the pick we need to ARZ
We missed our window the OS Dubois as WPG will match the highest offer we can technically make
It was pointed out to me earlier today

That said Trading the equivalent of that we can do as we have a 2nd rounder in 2024 just not ours, But ARZ will trade that back at a healthy profit im sure.
While i agree with your trade the problem is there's maybe 2-3 playoff teams and 1-2 non playoff teams in a position to make you an offer as big as you're suggesting (thats including MTL)
Of those 6 teams only 2 are in the Financial space to afford PLD long term as i think NSH and VGK are still deep enough to do it if they move out Karlsson to do it which is a no go with a lot of VGK fans .

in any trade scenario WPG doesnt do better then a 1st ,2nd and a 3rd round pick that OS gives them

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