attach a 3rd and 7th to make murray go away and batta bing, batta boom all your problems are solved

Its a one or the other thing. If we move Sammy its to keep Murray.

Could see that Murray deal with PGH though

possibly, especially because I think that Hexy is going to make some dangerous plays this summer, we know hes a big fan of miller, I could see him over spending on a goalie, and looking to get some UFA's for way to much

Still cant believe you guys couldnt find a way to make that trade work. Just a huge missed opportunity.

Also, random thought that hasnt been thought through at all.

Petry for Karlsson (and other things probably)

I still think it will happen, I think that when the dust settles, Hexy will do 2 1sts and he'll get his guy, Miller is a fantastic player, I get people dont like how emotional he is, but look at Kesler, he was hated and loved depending on the amount it was raining in vancouver. he still has at least 4 8m seasons left in him, and by the time he is worth less than that the cap will have gone up so much it wont even matter

Petry for Karlsson would need a lot to go with petry, 1st of all JP has a 15 team NTC and an NMC so those teams are locked in. Second of all, age, JP is 35, so that will make moving him super difficult, not impossible, hes still a good defender and from all accounts a real leader and great guy, but not sure that he would be on the move. I think if he doesnt have them on his NTC that he could be a candidate but he would need to go with probably 3-5M in salary and multiple 1st round draft picks in order to make up for the large swap

Yeah, id be very careful about making any long term predictions on the cap. The cap increase was supposed to be from the US TV deal, which is currently collapsing. That isn't even to say what I think about Miller.

I made a quick mock of petry for EK if you check the agm section

No Leafs fan or NHL observer would pick Murray over Samsonov.

Its not about stats as both have good ones, its about the fact that Murray is entering year four of being constantly injured and unreliable. So injury ridden that TOR has had to extensively rely on Kalgren, Woll throughout the year. Woll is not waiver exewmpt next year, so TOR needs either a reliably healthy tandem or one of them needs to go. Murray will not even play 30 games this season, and at 4.7mil, thats just sad for a team that could've put that needed cap money elsewhere.

But to trade Samsonov and keep Murray, when Murray is a guarantee to constantly be on/off the LTIR is just crazy

Had you read the description, you'd know that this is based on a scenario where the Leafs think Woll is ready, and 30 games from Murray is all we need.
Getting positive value in a trade rather than needing to dump Murray and a shorter contract makes more sense in that situation

Maybe, but 30 games for a unreliable backup goalie at 4.7mil is a crazy thought for a cap strapped team. Its also pretty honest evaluation found online NOT from Leaf fans, that Woll is not a quality NHL starter, but hes currently the best TOR goalie prospect they have. TOR fans were gaga over Kalgren too, (and the Mrazek signing, and Campbel, etc...).

Really it comes down to the playoffs.

But even after this season if you have the choice to sign Samsonov over Murray, its crazy to choose Murray even for a year, because the leafs will not want to bargain shop for a goalie at the same time vying for resigning their big name UFAs to come back to a club thats a pereniall disappointment. The best move for the leafs is, if Samsonov plays well in playoffs, they re-sign him. as you say above 3 yrs for 3-4.5mil for a starting goalie for the leafs would be a massive win, then Woll is the backup.

As far as the question in the description? I'm not convinced they get a 1st for Samsonov. Goaltenders, especially RFAs with an unreliable history are hit/miss for value. For instance, Ville Husso put up great stats last year and didnt get that kind of return and the league can see that if the Leafs cant move Murray at a loss than they can get samsonov for free. Its also he has great stats, but has been historically uneven, (which is why the leafs got him for free), so if he doesn;t play above average throughout the season and in playoffs, his RIGHTS are probably worth a 3rd maybe. If he does play well then TOR should resign him, but his RIGHTS are probably worth a 2nd, but its a limited market.

Outside of your value answer, gotta say I disagree with most of this or think it misses the point.

Generally I will say that I agree that the safest play is to keep Sammy and Woll. The real-underlying reason for this thought is because I am looking for another pick in next years draft.

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I dont think Im missing the point, I think you want a 1st for Dickinson.

Without moving any of the prospects (and the leafs cant afford to given their current lack of picks over the next 3-4 years, only 5 of their top 12 picks (rds 1-4) in next 3 years, and the loss of Sandin, the probable loss of Amirov and the disappointment of Robertson so far), what do the Leafs had that they could get a 1st for?

Without touching the youth/prospects, other than the big 4 and maybe Reilly, (and all of them have NTC-NTM), I dont see anyone on the roster that they can get a 1st for. BUT if they dont progress in the playoffs, they MIGHT have to change course and move one of those players and get a 1st in return.

You did miss the point a little lmao - but it doesn't matter.

Anyway one of my other options I was entertaining was moving the Sandin pick to next year via trade down - but rather than a pick trade down we do a time trade down. If you pick the right team (like Vancouver or Pittsburgh, etc) you could really rob them blind and it would make any trade up for Sam easy and maybe unneeded (although I am worried he might go top 10 or even top 5. Dude is everything you want in a Dman).

Maybe, but not sure you're getting a high enough pick to get Dickinson, when all you have is the very late in the round BOS 1st. (DET fans are looking at dealing the 11th and 20th and 40th approx to move up to 6th/7th if Mikhov falls). Dickinson might come in 10th-14th MAYBE, I think you'd be looking at the 2023 BOS 1st AND the 2024 TOR 1st and a bit more to move up that much. And the fact that TOR only has the late BOS 1st and then nothing until the probable later in the round TOR 5th in 2023, severely hampers moving up. I think most teams can get taken, but rarely do, as they all have those cheat sheets as to pick value.

But say Dickson is there at 12th, I'd think an illustration would be:

BOS 1st 2023 AND TOR 1st 2024 AND a prospect (Holmberg, Voyt, Steeves)

or BOS 1st 2023 (around 28th overall) and Samsonov (its just his rights) and NYI 3rd 2024 might get it done

I just dont think TOR has the resources (other than their current prospects) to move up higher than 10th-14th in draft.

Oh yes, the whole idea is to get a 2nd first to trade up. TOR 1st + 20 ish for 12 ish is what I'm thinking. If you can swindle VAN maybe that pick is 15 and it makes your life very easy. If he goes top 10 I fear there is nothing we can do, and its even less likely all those picks make it to the draft anyway rather than being used at the deadline.

But I've watched a lot of Knights. Dickenson impresses me far more than Bonk - who is going to go 1st round this year (maybe early 2nd)

We're not trading Samsonov, who is still 26 years old. You want a tandem of a 23 year old and a 30 year old instead of a 23 year old and a 26 year old?

We're not trading Samsonov, who is still 26 years old. You want a tandem of a 23 year old and a 30 year old instead of a 23 year old and a 26 year old?

Ill check that out, but the money isnt coming from the bally groups, its coming from the big names who are broadcasting like ESPN and TNT