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2023 NHL Entry Draft Predictions

2023 NHL Entry Draft Predictions

Draft Class: 2023
Created By: cmcmulls
Published: May 4, 2023 at 2:03 p.m.
Description
This mock-draft was created using a collaborative census I made including the most recent prospect rankings from: Central Skating, Scott Wheeler, Steven Ellis, Dobber, The Win Column, Sam Consentino, Tankathon, The Hockey Writers, Jason Bukala, Craig Button and Elite Prospects.

I then created a weighted average ranking and averaged that against the consensus rankings to create my own 2023 Draft Prospects Ranking (as of May 1st).

These are my own personal selections based on team need, player evaluation and depth charts from each NHL team.

I present to you my 2023 NHL Entry Draft First Round predictions!

*I have enough data to create 5 Rounds worth of selections - so if anyone likes my picks/explanations, I can continue to do more rounds!
Lottery Winners:
  1. Logo of the San Jose SharksSan Jose Sharks (4→1)
  2. Logo of the Arizona CoyotesArizona Coyotes (6→2)
ROUND 1TEAMORIGINALPLAYERDETAILS
1Logo of the San Jose Sharks-I don't need to tell you this - as all consensuses point towards one VERY obvious choice for the #1 pick at the 2023 NHL Entry Draft. Going first overall will no question be Bedard. All the signs show that Bedard has the potential to reach "generational" status in the NHL.
2Logo of the Arizona Coyotes-Now, had Arizona not moved up in the draft - there was one very clear choice for them. However, I don't see them reaching for that player as Fantilli will no doubt, give them an incredible 1A-1B punch with Cooley in their near future. God must be feeling mighty generous to the fans at Mullett Arena.
3Logo of the Anaheim Ducks-Anaheim is granted the #3 pick here - which will ultimately leave them with a potentially polarizing decision... Can they afford to wait out Michkov's KHL contract? Based on their current prospect pool and the uncertainty surrounding Michkov currently - I say no. Carlsson gives them a chance to be competitive sooner, and he has already shown that he could make an impact as early as next season for the Ducks.
4Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets-Columbus on the other hand... is one of the few teams capable of waiting on the services of a prospect such as Michkov. With players like Johnson and Sillinger expected to lead the forward group in Columbus up the middle, the opportunity to have another elite winger plug into your Top 6 immediately after his contract is up - is a slam dunk. Columbus is poised to be one of the most potent forward groups coming up.
5Logo of the Chicago Blackhawks-As the end of an era looms over Chicago this offseason - what better way to spark hope in these depressed Blackhawks fans than giving them a prospect like the Fresh Prince himself to look forward to! This could be a match made in heaven.
6Logo of the Montreal Canadiens-Montreal is already shaping up to have a very potent forward group going forward - and with a need for more tenacious wingers (with uncertainty around players like Anderson and Gallagher), they could use more depth. Having already proven with Caulfield that size doesn't always matter - Benson could be exactly what this team needs!
7Logo of the Philadelphia Flyers-Yes - Philadelphia could definitely use some more defensive prospects in their pool, but I just can't see them passing up on Moore here, especially with a mixture of team need and consensus practically screaming his name at #7. Moore has the potential to be the missing piece to this forward group.
8Logo of the Washington Capitals-Now Washington has a clear need for centremen in their prospect pool (especially after addressing the LHD depth issue acquiring Sandin), this is a team that would have GREATLY benefitted from winning the draft lottery. Fate would have it that most of the elite centremen in this draft have already been chosen. However, Leonard HAS played center in his career thus-far (before moving to Smith's wing) and addresses another need at wing. Regarded as the fastest prospect in this draft and complete with the hands to match, Washington fans can watch how he progresses further at Boston College next year (alongside Smith no less).
9Logo of the Detroit Red Wings-Oh boy, Detroit REALLY benefits having Arizona move up from the draft lottery here. They have a need for a RHD prospect and now they get to CHOOSE between the two best options in this draft instead of befalling to whoever Arizona didn't choose. With Leonard off the board, they don't have to worry about him anymore either. The question that lies in front of Stevey Y now is, which player would benefit St. Louis more? Yeah, let's steal Reinbacher. With the potential to have a d-core of Seider, Edvinsson, Reinbacher, Willander and Johansson, paired with their incredible crop of forwards AND an elite goalie prospect in Cossa - the future looks good for Detroit fans. If you're not already frothing at the mouth picturing this, don't worry - you pick again at #18!
10Logo of the St. Louis Blues-Personally I do think Reinbacher is the top defensive prospect in this draft, and I do think he is the exact kind of RHD prospect St. Louis needs. Luckily, Sandin Pellikka is one hell of a consolation prize! The most offensively gifted RHD in this draft class, he has a great chance of leading the charge from the Blues Line (see what I did there) in the near future - especially with their current d-core. There is a good chance Sandin Pellikka hits a higher ceiling than Reinbacher, and his offensive tools will compliment Thomas and Kyrou greatly going forward. Plus, there is a better crop of forwards than defensemen to choose from with their other TWO (2) 1st round draft picks ahead.
11Logo of the Vancouver Canucks-My fellow Canucks fans - we did not win the draft lottery this year (buh-bye Bedard), nor did we get the chance to give Quinn the perfect defensive partner (buh-bye Reinbacher). It seems that ledge is looking mighty tempting right now... BUT WAIT! The most glorious shining star has descended from the endless gloom above Rogers Arena, and within that star the most dazzling neon lights encapsulate the name "DVORSKY". Not today ledge, our cup dreams are showing signs of life! In all seriousness, after his dominant showcasing at the U-18s and the desperate need at center, the aspect of giving Petey some help up the middle within the next few years from within our own organization is almost too good to be true. Let's hope that it isn't.
12Logo of the Arizona CoyotesLogo of the Ottawa SenatorsAfter narrowly missing out on addressing their defensive depth (after shipping Chychrun to Ottawa), Arizona may choose to add a complimentary winger to play with Cooley and Fantilli, rather than reaching for a RHD at this point in the draft. With a name like Sale, this pick is one heck of a bargain for Arizona at #12!
13Logo of the Buffalo Sabres-Probably the most polarizing player in this year's draft, Cristall had been placed anywhere within the Top 10 to on the fringe of the late 1st round. However, he is undoubtedly a gifted offensive prospect, the tools are all there - yet he continues to frustrate scouts everywhere with his play (evident at the U18s this past month). A team like Buffalo, however, can afford to be more patient with Cristall and allow him to round out his game and plug into the lineup when HE is ready. Buffalo is in a great position now and going forward - this is a team to be excited about!
14Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins-Another franchise on the cusp of ending an era - Pittsburgh will need to start looking toward the future with the inevitability that Crosby, Malkin and Letang only have a few more years left. There are a lot of varying needs this team will have to address, however, a player like Wood could be the perfect player to rebuild this team around when the time comes. A big, scoring winger with few flaws in his toolkit - he will only continue to grow and dominate in the NCAA before he makes the jump to the NHL.
15Logo of the Nashville Predators-There is only ONE player that Nashville should and will consider with their #15, and that is Danielson. Not only does he address the team's obvious need for a future 1st line centremen (the potential is there), but he also possesses a well-rounded two-way game and decent size to boot. For me, this is a no-brainer.
16Logo of the Calgary Flames-Talk about kissing a gift-horse on the mouth! Yes, Calgary will need to address their defensive depth, but I can't see Treliving passing up on a player like Barlow. He can play either side and runs a competitive two-way game. He is exactly the kind of player Calgary will want in their lineup once they figure out their identity.
17Logo of the Montreal CanadiensLogo of the Florida PanthersThere are quite a few good options for Montreal here - this draft will be rather good to them. They could still use another potential Top 6 winger to really round out their prospect pool, but they also still need to address their defensive depth. Do they value a defenseman like Gulyayev or Simashev enough to grab him here, or do they wait and see who is available at #37? Honestly, I could see them taking a defenseman here (Gulyayev most likely), however, I think it would be hard to pass up on a player like Perreault here. I mean, he even has a French last name, let alone addressing their need for another winger. Despite being not as quick as some other players in this draft, Perrault has all the tools to be a powerplay specialist for Montreal in the future. Not to mention his commitment to Boston College where he will get the chance to develop alongside Smith and Leonard.
18Logo of the Detroit Red WingsLogo of the New York IslandersWith their RHD need addressed with the top defenseman in this draft and three (3) back-to-back picks just beyond the horizon of the 1st round - Detroit can honestly do whatever the heck they want with this pick. Now they may opt for the bigger Honzek here, but I agree with the consensus here and see them snatching up Yager. Yes he is a centreman, but I can see him shifting to wing in the big leagues if his body doesn't mature, plus there are some great natural wingers they can select with any one of their three (yes 3) back-to-back early 2nd round draft picks.
19Logo of the Winnipeg Jets-Winnipeg is a team I could see reaching for a goalie with their #19 pick, and honestly having your top goalie choice would be great for a team with so much uncertainty in their future with that position (especially if they lose Hellebyuck), but I don't see them passing up on Honzek here. He addresses another need for them, and the Jets are likely to see a major shakeup throughout the 2023-2024 season, starting this offseason. They are going to want some certainty at forward for the future and Honzek provides that certainty. He will be an impactful Top 6 player in the NHL soon enough.
20Logo of the Chicago BlackhawksLogo of the Tampa Bay LightningWith their future 1st line centreman locked in with Smith - I could see a player like Musty being a perfect complement to him for many years to come. His offensive abilities complete with his already mature frame - will likely be able to create space making plays to set up the craftier Smith. That's a future that Blackhawks fans can be excited about.
21Logo of the Seattle Kraken-With other teams needing to address more pressing needs - Seattle could be granted the luxury of being able to pick from the WHOLE crop of LHD available in this draft. They will need somebody to take pressure off of Dunn on the top pair eventually - Gulyayev is more than capable of being both a powerplay quarterback and an effective second pairing offensive LHD in the NHL. He has time to round out the more defensive aspects of his game while the Kraken continue to show their depth and gifted ability to make their waiver claims impactful players (Sprong and Tolvanen help bolster their lack of effective wingers for the future too). The future looks mighty bright in Seattle with Gulyayev in their pool.
22Logo of the Minnesota Wild-Minnesota is one of the few teams that don't really have any needs to address in their prospect pool - as they have elite prospects at nearly every position already. I think Minnesota will likely take the best player available - and the consensus would point toward Heidt at #22. Especially with his likelihood to play center and wing at the NHL level.
23Logo of the Columbus Blue JacketsLogo of the Los Angeles KingsColumbus is one of the few teams with a dire need of options in goal both now, and in the future. For that reason, I think the first team to reach for a goalie in the 1st round will be the Blue Jackets. After his stellar play in the USHL this season and outstanding performance for Czechia at the U-18s (despite not medaling), I think Hrabal will be the first goalie taken at this year's draft. His commitment to developing in North America with the University of Massachusetts only add to my case for him being the first goalie taken. Oh, and his 6'6" / 209 lb. frame helps too of course.
24Logo of the New York Rangers-Bear with me here... Yes, there are some very intriguing options for the Rangers here, however - they are clearly missing something on the ice, and a player like Gauthier could have the tools to provide more of what they need. With his grindy style of play and ability to agitate and keep play in the offensive zone, a player like that to compliment the more skilled players in New York's younger core of Fox, Lafreniere, Kakko, Miller, Schneider and Chytil could make one hell of a threat in the playoffs each year. Not having to select the best available player, like years past - could really make Gauthier a diamond in the rough for this team going forward.
25Logo of the St. Louis BluesLogo of the Dallas StarsNow that St. Louis addressed the RHD with a potential game changer in Sandin Pellikka - they can address other needs in terms of prospect depth. One such need is a complimentary winger to support their young core going forward. The best pick here for the Blues is without a doubt, But. A huge power forward with dual wing capabilities, But can help open ice for the likes of Thomas and Kyrou and allow further depth keeping the more creative Buchnevich on the second line. Suddenly, the future in St. Louis isn't looking so bleak! Not convinced? Don't worry St. Louis picks again in four spots!
26Logo of the Colorado Avalanche-I'm not going to lie - the perfect pick for Colorado here (if he IS available), is But. The absence of Landeskog proved how crucial missing a big power forward of his ilk in their lineup was, and how that affects the dynamic of this team. Yes, Colorado's first round exit can't be completely held against missing Landeskog - but depth proved to be Seattle's reason for advancing past our previous Stanley Cup victor. Another fine option at #26 would be Stenberg. You may be seeing Ritchie available and BEGGING MacFarland to snatch him - but with Stenberg having dual position eligibility and dominating at the U-18s, I think Stenberg has a better chance of making an impact on this current roster than Ritchie would (being pushed down the depth chart by MacKinnon, Rantanen and Newhook).
27Logo of the Nashville PredatorsLogo of the Edmonton OilersWhat a way to set up the future of your 1C and 2C by drafting Danielson AND Ritchie. Yeah, there is no way if RItchie is available at #27 that Nashville doesn't SMASH that pick in. They can address their needs at defense and wing with their back-to-back picks at #46 and #47 - there should be plenty of options available.
28Logo of the Toronto Maple LeafsLogo of the Boston BruinsToronto could really use a boost to their defensive prospect pool, and if there is one thing Toronto probably doesn't need it is offense... so I think the smartest thing to do here is take Bonk - he's definitely got solid offensive instincts, but he holds true to a two-way type of game. I think his defensive capabilities are EXACTLY what Toronto needs more of on the blue line. Besides - any defenseman compared to Marino is an immediate plus in my books!
29Logo of the Vegas Golden Knights-There is still a plethora of effective potential Top 6/Top 9 wingers available and there isn't an exact playstyle that Vegas is looking for - I think the best available winger for Vegas is Ziemmer. I think he could really become an effective shoot-first winger to replace the inevitable loss of impact wingers Vegas will see by the time Ziemmer is ready to jump into the lineup.
30Logo of the St. Louis BluesLogo of the Toronto Maple LeafsHonestly, this pick will just come down to who is available to St. Louis here at #30... They may be hoping one of Stenberg, Bonk or Ziemmer is still available here, but they may still have Halttunen, Perron, Nadeau, Dragicevic, Simashev and Willander available. I'd just go strictly based on team need, consensus and the numbers here - with that available information I think (if he is still available), the Blues opt to bolster their defense and grab Willander here. With the teams picking ahead of their early back-to-back 2nd round picks, the likelihood of one of the better defensemen still being available compared to the crop of wingers that will likely be available - you grab Willander and you don't look back! The U-18s proved the ultimate benefactor on my decision here- with Sweden's blue line being just an absolute beast during the tournament - non better than Willander himself.
31Logo of the San Jose SharksLogo of the New Jersey DevilsSee - here I think San Jose was hoping one of either Bonk or WIllander would still be available to them at #31. You already won the Bedard sweepstakes fellas, let's not get TOO greedy! The need for a potent RHD to wait on with Karlsson's reign coming to an almost definite end in San Jose - a player like Dragicevic could have Mike Grier seeing double. He has already made some pretty significant changes to the look and feel of his Sharks, but one thing he didn't do was ship of Karlsson. I think the potential to have a replacement in the near future for Karlsson's style of play could look to handsome to pass up. Just imagine Bedard and Dragicevic playing together - I know I can!
32Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes-With the final pick in the 2023 NHL Entry Draft's 1st round - Carolina looks poised to have a wonderful lineup to choose from. The Hurricanes have a pretty well-rounded prospect pool still and although they could use some more wingers, I think taking the polarizing Simashev here could make for a pretty good "boom or bust" last pick in the 1st round. He very well could become a great new piece of Carolina's aging defensive core within a few short years - there is great potential for Simashev to become an effective blueliner in the NHL, with further development in the KHL he could jump right into the Top 4 when he's ready.
May 4, 2023 at 2:44 p.m.
#1
Darkblade
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the 6th overall spot is def a weird spot for habs to be in, as 5th they could take smith or michkov, at 6th, Benson is 6th on a lot of mock drafts but habs already have a lot of guys under 5'10, Caufield, Farrell, RHP, Mesar, Pitlick, adding Benson would def be a weird thing to do, but if they were to go bpa i'd assume they trade him eventually, or trade down a couple spots so they can get Reinbacher in the 8-9 range, Reinbacher, Moore def seem interesting at that range. if they do drop to 7th then they def take Reinbacher.
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May 4, 2023 at 2:57 p.m.
#2
Amirov Forever
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Edited May 4, 2023 at 3:23 p.m.
This may be the single best thing I've read on Capfriendly. Your insight is superb, your ranking system makes sense, and it just seems right. I'd like to see Toronto go for Simashev if he is still available at 28. Bonk is no slouch either though, and with a name like that, he'd be a welcome addition to my team haha

I'd be super interested in seeing the other rounds of data you have. Some of my favourite prospects of the draft in Brindley, Perron, Wahlberg, and Mukhanov didn't make the cut in the first round and I'm curious to see where they fell in your model. Plus, your insight on them would be a fun read.

Very well done!
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May 4, 2023 at 3:06 p.m.
#3
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If Perrault, Yager, and Honzek all went off the board 3 picks in a row right before the Hawks pick again, I'd be really sad! But Musty is certainly a tools and projection guy - similar to Rinzel last year. I could see it for sure. Rankings look pretty good to me. Hawks have 4 picks in the 2nd round now so I'd be curious to see what you have for a 2nd round projection.
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May 4, 2023 at 4:23 p.m.
#4
Bedard23
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I don’t know where you got “Columbus can wait for Michkov” I mean maybe for like a year and land Eiserman which I suppose is an option (not a bad one) but when you have Gaudreau and Laine at the same time you have to be competitive as soon as possible
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May 4, 2023 at 7:05 p.m.
#5
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@AlakHul - It's great having insight from a Habs fan in here, so thank you! I definitely agree - having too much of one thing does not always mean a good thing. My additional reasoning for Benson at #6 definitely includes the consensus that he is the best player available (BPA). However, I also took into consideration recent picks such as Slafkovsky and Tuch and stealing Dach from Chicago bringing some great size - and I felt there was enough offset to grab Benson here. At the very least, the potential is there for him to be an impact player for Montreal eventually or makes a handsome addition to their trade block!

@Nathaniel - That is such a welcome compliment, thank you so much! Assuming you're a Leafs fan, I thank you for providing some insight as well! It honestly came down to Bonk and Simashev for me for Toronto - especially considering they shipped Sandin to Washington, a high-end LHD would be very welcome to their prospect pool. As for further rounds - I am currently working on a model for the first four rounds (so far) and rest assured that Brindley, Perron and Wahlberg are likely gone before the mid-second round! Mukhanov definitely could make the second round based on consensus alone in my model - however, he does also have the added benefit of being listed with dual-capabilities (LW/C) which could see him taken even sooner, I just wonder if team needs, and being a smaller player from Russia might turn some GMs away from him so early? I'll be sure to include insight on his draft position in my mockup!

@SlickWilly - I appreciate your appreciation for my model here! It's also good to have a fan of non-Canadian teams to provide insight, so welcome aboard! Chicago really could end up with any of the three forwards you are hoping for at #20 - they are in a really great spot, I liked the idea of Musty "falling" to Chicago here (and I am an anti-Blackhawks fan being a Canucks fan myself) but if fate will have it, I think Chicago could also use the tools Honzek provides especially (a player compared to Pavel Zacha) who could potentially become what they had hoped Dach would be for them?
May 4, 2023 at 7:05 p.m.
#6
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Edited May 4, 2023 at 7:27 p.m.
@IconicHawk - Although I completely see your reasoning behind your response, more in terms of what I meant by "Columbus can wait for Michkov" comes down to the depth of their current prospect pool in contrast to their current roster. I agree, Columbus will want to make the absolute most of players like Gaudreau, Laine and Werenski - and I think the players that are likely to be promoted from within plus the continued development of Johnson, Sillinger, Jiricek, Tarasov, Marchenko, Foudy, Mateychuk, etc. on top of being aggressive through FA and trades, this is possible. Hence my thought process on for when Michkov is ready to come over, the "wait" will have been worth it. Although, this is just my opinion on the matter!
May 4, 2023 at 8:35 p.m.
#7
Bedard23
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IconicHawk - Although I completely see your reasoning behind your response, more in terms of what I meant by "Columbus can wait for Michkov" comes down to the depth of their current prospect pool in contrast to their current roster. I agree, Columbus will want to make the absolute most of players like Gaudreau, Laine and Werenski - and I think the players that are likely to be promoted from within plus the continued development of Johnson, Sillinger, Jiricek, Tarasov, Marchenko, Foudy, Mateychuk, etc. on top of being aggressive through FA and trades, this is possible. Hence my thought process on for when Michkov is ready to come over, the "wait" will have been worth it. Although, this is just my opinion on the matter!


No one else is gonna want to come to Columbus and they don’t trade firsts often if you’ve paid any attention to them do them being aggressive won’t likely happen
May 5, 2023 at 6:21 p.m.
#8
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@IconicHawk - I'm not entirely sure what you mean, Gaudreau signed long term with Columbus so I think there is at least some draw there - especially with the players in the system who could come up and the good minutes available at most every position! As for being aggressive - that doesn't always equate to their 1st round pick being a chip, it could be any mix of picks/prospects/roster players for upgrades - there will likely be cap-strapped teams this offseason and we will likely see cap dumps at the 2024 trade deadline as well! Never say never my friend!
 
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