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Forums/Armchair-GM

Pittsburgh rumor

Created by: southpark_writer
Team: 2023-24 Edmonton Oilers
Initial Creation Date: May 11, 2023
Published: May 11, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$4,250,000
1$900,000
2$775,000
2$1,450,000
2$775,000
2$775,000
2$775,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
5$1,750,000
6$4,000,000
5$1,900,000
1$800,000
3$1,000,000
3$2,500,000
2$900,000
Trades
1.
EDM
  1. 2023 6th round pick (NSH)
2.
EDM
  1. Smith, Ty [RFA Rights]
PIT
  1. Campbell, Jack
  2. Holloway, Dylan
  3. 2023 2nd round pick (EDM)
  4. 2024 1st round pick (EDM)
3.
EDM
  1. 2023 7th round pick (MTL)
Buyouts
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2023
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the NSH
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the MTL
2024
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the NSH
2025
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
22$84,000,000$83,955,000$850,000$850,000$45,000
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$5,125,000$5,125,000
LW, C
NMC
UFA - 6
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$12,500,000$12,500,000
C
NMC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$5,500,000$5,500,000
RW, LW
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$5,125,000$5,125,000
LW, RW
NMC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$8,500,000$8,500,000
C, LW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$2,750,000$2,750,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$900,000$900,000
LW, RW
RFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$1,450,000$1,450,000
C
RFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$1,750,000$1,750,000
C, RW
UFA - 2
$800,000$800,000
LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$900,000$900,000
C, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$1,000,000$1,000,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$775,000$775,000
C
RFA
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$6,000,000$6,000,000
LD/RD
UFA - 3
$4,000,000$4,000,000
RD
UFA - 7
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$2,600,000$2,600,000
G
UFA - 3
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$2,750,000$2,750,000
LD/RD
UFA - 3
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$4,250,000$4,250,000
RD
RFA - 2
$2,500,000$2,500,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$9,250,000$9,250,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 7
$1,900,000$1,900,000
RD
UFA - 3
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
LD
RFA - 1

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May 11, 2023 at 6:06 a.m.
#1
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is jack campbell that bad lol?
CD282 liked this.
May 11, 2023 at 8:25 a.m.
#2
spoiled penguins fan
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Can’t imagine Edmonton gives up anything remotely close to ALL of that just to get rid of Campbell.
CD282 liked this.
May 11, 2023 at 8:48 a.m.
#3
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Quoting: Pensman69
Can’t imagine Edmonton gives up anything remotely close to ALL of that just to get rid of Campbell.


I would think the Pens accept that in a heartbeat.
CD282 liked this.
May 11, 2023 at 9:01 a.m.
#4
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Quoting: fil97
is jack campbell that bad lol?


i dont think its that hes that bad its just that having his contract off the books would make things a lot easier next year and they would be able to lock up bouchard longterm
May 11, 2023 at 9:04 a.m.
#5
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Edmonton declines all trades. Especially that Pittsburgh deal!
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May 11, 2023 at 6:36 p.m.
#6
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Quoting: fil97
is jack campbell that bad lol?


There is a strong possibility that he will return closer to the mean next year. However, with Skinner now becoming the clear #1, it frees up a lot of Space that will still likely be for backup goalie.

Of course, Oilers are not going to offer this initially.

Would Pittsburgh do that deal with out the first round pick, or without Holloway added?
May 11, 2023 at 6:43 p.m.
#7
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Quoting: CD282
Edmonton declines all trades. Especially that Pittsburgh deal!


That is your usual response as you are in love with Ceci. In his first year, he played much better. But he has certainly regressed in the second half of the season, and has way too many mistakes in the playoffs to be a first pairing D. He would be a great third pairing D but is too expensive, he may be a very good second pairing D [which by minutes this series he already is]. If we are assuming that Ekholm/Bouch are the de facto second pairing, then Ceci is a problem. Is not a good enough 1st pairing D, and a too expensive 3rd pairing. So he doesn't fit in.

Nurse needs someone with him with more defensive skills, and that is certainly not Bouch.
May 11, 2023 at 6:47 p.m.
#8
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Quoting: southpark_writer
There is a strong possibility that he will return closer to the mean next year. However, with Skinner now becoming the clear #1, it frees up a lot of Space that will still likely be for backup goalie.

Of course, Oilers are not going to offer this initially.

Would Pittsburgh do that deal with out the first round pick, or without Holloway added?



imho it depends on what the new GM thinks of campbell, if they feel like he is the solution in net as the main guy with desmith as the backup we might even do smith for campbell plus the second, if he isn't that good don't think we would take that deal because of the cap hit. obviously the first and Holloway are good incentives but I think the new gm is going all in for the next 2 seasons so it wouldn't make much sense unless there are other moves involved later.

I'm not too familiar with Campbells game unfortunately to give you a clearer idea didn't really follow him with kings or oilers. he wasn't bad with Toronto but not sure if that was only cuz of the contract year
May 11, 2023 at 6:54 p.m.
#9
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Quoting: CD282
Edmonton declines all trades. Especially that Pittsburgh deal!


By some analytics and stats, Yamamoto is worth weigh more. The problem with analytics from the very start, is that it has a bias towards skill, and eliminates other facets of a true game. Yamamoto has skill, but his size, injuries, inconsistent performance are factors not evaluated with analytics, but easy to see.

Based on Cap amount, to sign Bouch and some other 3rd/4th liners (Bjugstad etc), 2 off either Ceci/Yamo/Foegle, or Kulak have to be dealt. And Kulak and Foegele are the ones I would keep.

In my opinion, unless we win a cup (or 2) by then end of McDavids 3 more years, he will likely not resign (along with Drai). So trading away magic beans is miniscule to ice the best possible team the next 2 years.
May 11, 2023 at 7:04 p.m.
#10
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Quoting: fil97
imho it depends on what the new GM thinks of campbell, if they feel like he is the solution in net as the main guy with desmith as the backup we might even do smith for campbell plus the second, if he isn't that good don't think we would take that deal because of the cap hit. obviously the first and Holloway are good incentives but I think the new gm is going all in for the next 2 seasons so it wouldn't make much sense unless there are other moves involved later.

I'm not too familiar with Campbells game unfortunately to give you a clearer idea didn't really follow him with kings or oilers. he wasn't bad with Toronto but not sure if that was only cuz of the contract year


Agreed. I have been thinking it would be hard to get rid of Campbell because of the cap hit. A story came out yesterday about the Penguins and Campbell, and that they may try to bring in Dubas who has a history with Campbell. It could be just fantasy.

It seems to me that Campbell's issue this year was likely mental. He has gone through multiple equipment changes. His confidence appears to have evaporated. That being said, if it was not for Campbell in the 50 minutes he played in the LA series and won the game, we may have been eliminated. Down 3-0 in the game, it was an amazing comeback that he was a big part of.
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May 12, 2023 at 9:11 a.m.
#11
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Quoting: southpark_writer
That is your usual response as you are in love with Ceci. In his first year, he played much better. But he has certainly regressed in the second half of the season, and has way too many mistakes in the playoffs to be a first pairing D. He would be a great third pairing D but is too expensive, he may be a very good second pairing D [which by minutes this series he already is]. If we are assuming that Ekholm/Bouch are the de facto second pairing, then Ceci is a problem. Is not a good enough 1st pairing D, and a too expensive 3rd pairing. So he doesn't fit in.

Nurse needs someone with him with more defensive skills, and that is certainly not Bouch.


I didn't say anything about Ceci!?

tears of joy

You post ****ty trades constantly and then fight straw men in response, lol.

But since YOU brought up Ceci, here's something to chew on:

Ceci played 37.4% v Elites this year, which was 12th most in the league among defensemen with at least 200 min v Elites. His 493 total TOI v Elites was 15th most in the league. So he was playing pretty much the hardest minutes possible, that's an indisputable fact.

So if he sucks - as you've implied by trading him for nothing - you would expect him to have performed very poorly, as he was constantly being hard matched against the leagues best forwards. However, he finished the season with a 50.23 CF%, a 51.06 xGF%, a 50.11 SCF% and a 52.88 HDCF%. Those are very good numbers when you account for quality of competition.

In the previous season he played the exact same role and performed similarly. He's not flashy and doesn't produce much offense, but he does the hardest job in the league for just $3.25M and does it well. That's got value to NHL GM's, even if not to you.
May 13, 2023 at 4:39 a.m.
#12
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Quoting: CD282
I didn't say anything about Ceci!?

tears of joy

You post ****ty trades constantly and then fight straw men in response, lol.

But since YOU brought up Ceci, here's something to chew on:

Ceci played 37.4% v Elites this year, which was 12th most in the league among defensemen with at least 200 min v Elites. His 493 total TOI v Elites was 15th most in the league. So he was playing pretty much the hardest minutes possible, that's an indisputable fact.

So if he sucks - as you've implied by trading him for nothing - you would expect him to have performed very poorly, as he was constantly being hard matched against the leagues best forwards. However, he finished the season with a 50.23 CF%, a 51.06 xGF%, a 50.11 SCF% and a 52.88 HDCF%. Those are very good numbers when you account for quality of competition.

In the previous season he played the exact same role and performed similarly. He's not flashy and doesn't produce much offense, but he does the hardest job in the league for just $3.25M and does it well. That's got value to NHL GM's, even if not to you.


I agree with all your data regarding the % vs elites is exactly what PuckIQ states.

However, your CF%, xGF%m etc. is not evaluating his time vs elites. Also those metric’s are much more important for forwards.

Look at his DFA/60, DFA/60 adjusted for relative comps, and DFF%RC. And assess it based on time vs elites, mid comp, and replacement players. This is where the problem begins. DFF%RC I think is the most relevant, and his is the worst on the team, with Kulak second worse.

By these metrics, Nurse didnt do well either, although him paired with Ceci likely had a lot of effect.

They also show that Ekholm is an absolute beast, and likely likely props up Bouchs numbers.

Based on this data, Ekholm Bouch are by far our top pairing, Nurse needs help especially since he likes to be more of a rover,, and Broberg/Deshnarais can survive sheltered minutes.

Without upgrading the D, we are wasting the best offence the league has seen in almost 3 decades.
 
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