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southpark_writer
Member Since
Mar. 21, 2023
Favourite Team
Edmonton Oilers
2nd Favourite Team
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forum Posts
57
Posts per Day
0.1
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THREADS
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ARMCHAIR-GM TEAMS
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 23, 2023 at 1:42 p.m.
Thread:
Sell futures for backend
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hockey_Mind</b></div><div>"Foegele has great stats with McDavid."
Doesn't everybody?</div></div>
Im basing this on comparison to other Oilers. Minutes are not high, but McDavids GF% with Foegele is 2nd highest compared to any other Oiler last year.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 15, 2023 at 5:43 a.m.
Thread:
changes top 6 RW
Evan Bouchard declines. Its going to start with a 4, and closer to a 5.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 15, 2023 at 5:40 a.m.
Thread:
Oilers next season upgrade
McLeod, Bjugstad, and Severson all decline those amounts.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 14, 2023 at 3:10 p.m.
Thread:
DFFRC based
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>reelnb</b></div><div>Even if the Habs were interested in adding a defenceman (they have too many already), why would they not just sign a UFA?</div></div>
They have a plethora of poor quality defenceman. Ceci is not poor quality, he just is not the ideal fit with Nurse. He would be 2nd pair and possibly first pair on the habs. Look at the UFAs available and who could they sign?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 13, 2023 at 4:39 a.m.
Thread:
Pittsburgh rumor
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>I didn't say anything about Ceci!?
:tearsofjoy
You post ****ty trades constantly and then fight straw men in response, lol.
But since YOU brought up Ceci, here's something to chew on:
Ceci played 37.4% v Elites this year, which was 12th most in the league among defensemen with at least 200 min v Elites. His 493 total TOI v Elites was 15th most in the league. So he was playing pretty much the hardest minutes possible, that's an indisputable fact.
So if he sucks - as you've implied by trading him for nothing - you would expect him to have performed very poorly, as he was constantly being hard matched against the leagues best forwards. However, he finished the season with a 50.23 CF%, a 51.06 xGF%, a 50.11 SCF% and a 52.88 HDCF%. Those are very good numbers when you account for quality of competition.
In the previous season he played the exact same role and performed similarly. He's not flashy and doesn't produce much offense, but he does the hardest job in the league for just $3.25M and does it well. That's got value to NHL GM's, even if not to you.</div></div>
I agree with all your data regarding the % vs elites is exactly what PuckIQ states.
However, your CF%, xGF%m etc. is not evaluating his time vs elites. Also those metric’s are much more important for forwards.
Look at his DFA/60, DFA/60 adjusted for relative comps, and DFF%RC. And assess it based on time vs elites, mid comp, and replacement players. This is where the problem begins. DFF%RC I think is the most relevant, and his is the worst on the team, with Kulak second worse.
By these metrics, Nurse didnt do well either, although him paired with Ceci likely had a lot of effect.
They also show that Ekholm is an absolute beast, and likely likely props up Bouchs numbers.
Based on this data, Ekholm Bouch are by far our top pairing, Nurse needs help especially since he likes to be more of a rover,, and Broberg/Deshnarais can survive sheltered minutes.
Without upgrading the D, we are wasting the best offence the league has seen in almost 3 decades.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 11, 2023 at 7:04 p.m.
Thread:
Pittsburgh rumor
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>fil97</b></div><div>imho it depends on what the new GM thinks of campbell, if they feel like he is the solution in net as the main guy with desmith as the backup we might even do smith for campbell plus the second, if he isn't that good don't think we would take that deal because of the cap hit. obviously the first and Holloway are good incentives but I think the new gm is going all in for the next 2 seasons so it wouldn't make much sense unless there are other moves involved later.
I'm not too familiar with Campbells game unfortunately to give you a clearer idea didn't really follow him with kings or oilers. he wasn't bad with Toronto but not sure if that was only cuz of the contract year</div></div>
Agreed. I have been thinking it would be hard to get rid of Campbell because of the cap hit. A story came out yesterday about the Penguins and Campbell, and that they may try to bring in Dubas who has a history with Campbell. It could be just fantasy.
It seems to me that Campbell's issue this year was likely mental. He has gone through multiple equipment changes. His confidence appears to have evaporated. That being said, if it was not for Campbell in the 50 minutes he played in the LA series and won the game, we may have been eliminated. Down 3-0 in the game, it was an amazing comeback that he was a big part of.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 11, 2023 at 6:54 p.m.
Thread:
Pittsburgh rumor
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>Edmonton declines all trades. Especially that Pittsburgh deal!</div></div>
By some analytics and stats, Yamamoto is worth weigh more. The problem with analytics from the very start, is that it has a bias towards skill, and eliminates other facets of a true game. Yamamoto has skill, but his size, injuries, inconsistent performance are factors not evaluated with analytics, but easy to see.
Based on Cap amount, to sign Bouch and some other 3rd/4th liners (Bjugstad etc), 2 off either Ceci/Yamo/Foegle, or Kulak have to be dealt. And Kulak and Foegele are the ones I would keep.
In my opinion, unless we win a cup (or 2) by then end of McDavids 3 more years, he will likely not resign (along with Drai). So trading away magic beans is miniscule to ice the best possible team the next 2 years.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 11, 2023 at 6:43 p.m.
Thread:
Pittsburgh rumor
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>Edmonton declines all trades. Especially that Pittsburgh deal!</div></div>
That is your usual response as you are in love with Ceci. In his first year, he played much better. But he has certainly regressed in the second half of the season, and has way too many mistakes in the playoffs to be a first pairing D. He would be a great third pairing D but is too expensive, he may be a very good second pairing D [which by minutes this series he already is]. If we are assuming that Ekholm/Bouch are the de facto second pairing, then Ceci is a problem. Is not a good enough 1st pairing D, and a too expensive 3rd pairing. So he doesn't fit in.
Nurse needs someone with him with more defensive skills, and that is certainly not Bouch.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 11, 2023 at 6:36 p.m.
Thread:
Pittsburgh rumor
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>fil97</b></div><div>is jack campbell that bad lol?</div></div>
There is a strong possibility that he will return closer to the mean next year. However, with Skinner now becoming the clear #1, it frees up a lot of Space that will still likely be for backup goalie.
Of course, Oilers are not going to offer this initially.
Would Pittsburgh do that deal with out the first round pick, or without Holloway added?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 4, 2023 at 11:05 p.m.
Thread:
Solid experienced D
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RedWing9119</b></div><div>It sad watching you try to shut down conversations with these silly numbers. Am I supposed to be intimidated? All your bullsh*t really says is Foegele is a good third liner who struggles to maintain his production against stiffer competition. He's playing behind 2 of the best lines in the world. I never said he was a cap dump but I definitely wouldn't give up anything significant for him.</div></div>
Based on Puckiq data, against elite (first line competition), Foegele has a GF% of 58.3% which is 6th on the Oilers.
Larkin is 42.9% against elite comp. Perron is the highest Wing at 55.6%.
So Foegele is not struggling against stiff competition in any way. He just doesn’t get PP time, or enough time in general given our top 6. But the data supports that he should be on the second line over Yamamoto.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 4, 2023 at 10:54 p.m.
Thread:
Solid experienced D
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>Warren Foegele is among the best in the league at generating scoring chances.
[A little context for my stats. I took full season 5v5 stats and applied two filters: forwards only and minimun TOI of 495 minutes. That leaves us with the top 385 players by minutes played. Why 385? Because there are 32 teams and each with 12 regular forwards. 32 x 12 = 384, so pretty close. This way we can divide results by "1st line" (top 96 players), "2nd line" (97-192), etc. All stats are expressed as "per 60 minutes" to equalize for TOI differences.]
So here's how Foegele stacks up:
G/60: 0.93 (84th, tied with Panarin) 1st line rate
P/60: 2.09 (85th, tied with Tavares) 1st line rate
S/60: 9.36 (50th, tied with Cozens) 1st line rate
xG/60: 1.16 (9th, tied with Tavares) elite 1st line rate
SCF/60: 10.90 (23rd) elite 1st line rate
HDCF/60: 6.19 (8th), elite 1st line rate
Tka/60: 3.63 (3rd), elite 1st line rate
Hits/60: 7.11 (108th tied with Kreider) high 2nd line rate
Now consider that he spent just 8% of his TOI with McDavid this year. Foegele is a value contract.</div></div>
Agree, and any team who focuses on Analytics will be interested. If Oil keeps him, I would suspect he is on the second line next year.
Would like to keep him, but if we want 2 solid RD to replace Ceci and Deshnarais, someone has to go.
Based on the LA series and the Vegas game, spending assets on better D seems the way to go, especially in the playoffs.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 4, 2023 at 10:48 p.m.
Thread:
Solid experienced D
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>Severson is superior to Ceci offensively. I'm not convinced he's better defensively. Isn't that what the Oilers would be looking for?</div></div>
If you use Dom Luszczyszyn’s GSVA model, Severson is superior defensively to Ceci. Equivalent to Ekholm based on the model (who has the highest defensive rating on the Oilers). Based on that model, Ceci comes in last, behind both Kulak and Broberg.
https://theathletic.com/3989427/2023/01/30/nhl-player-cards-new-jersey-devils-2/
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 4, 2023 at 10:33 p.m.
Thread:
Solid experienced D
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Gronk9911</b></div><div>What’s with people criminally underrating Ceci…..
Find out what a top 4 RHD goes for, good grief, the Oilers gave up Taylor Hall for one, you’d think that would be a clue.
I’m sorry, Yamamoto isn’t going anywhere, not at 3M per season, not unless the Oilers eat 1M at minimum.</div></div>
Oilers are not going to eat salary or add significant assets, because his contract can be bought out for a cap hit of $433,333 next year and $533,333 the following. Its the only contract the have with a very friendly buyout amount.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 4, 2023 at 3:11 a.m.
Thread:
Need solid D
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CaseyFlyman</b></div><div>The Jackets say no to both trades. It's a slight overpay for Kulak since this year's 2nd is nearly a 1st, but we might take him for this year's 3rd. But zero interest in Foegele, we've got a ton of bottom-6 forwards already and don't need another taking ice time from the kids.</div></div>
Based on Foegeles performance since Jan 1st, he is a second line forward on the majority of teams in the league. Oilers are not Columbus when talking about offence.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 4, 2023 at 1:30 a.m.
Thread:
Need solid D
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>EvanderKanesLawyer</b></div><div>Valimaki is gonna be paid more than 1m. Why even move that many assets for him when you have Broberg?</div></div>
Of course he is, but he still has year left at $1M. To sign him the year after, Ceci has to go. He is a lefty, so not comparable to Bouchard, they play different positions. And eventually they will off load Nurse. His bonehead mistakes are not worth $9M.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 4, 2023 at 1:25 a.m.
Thread:
next year
Seversen says no, needs quite a bit more.
McLeod laughs at the offer.
Bouchard says no to that for 5 years, plus that takes him to UFA so a 5yr deal is dumb for the Oilers.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 4, 2023 at 1:19 a.m.
Thread:
next year
NYI massively decline, need to add multiple first round picks to that.
No way SJ takes on that much retention.
No way Bjugstad signs for even double that.
No way Toews or Connor Brown signs for that.
This is all a big Fantasy.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 3, 2023 at 1:47 a.m.
Thread:
Yearly Contenders Now
Bouchard is going to get way more, even on a one year deal.
McLeod is going to cost way more. No clue why you are paying Kostin more than Mcleod.
And Bjugstad is going to cost much more.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 2, 2023 at 2:56 p.m.
Thread:
Escrow deal nhlpa and owners
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HockeyIsMyPassion61</b></div><div>Good luck on that. I don't see it going to $87,000,000 until the 2024/2025 NHL season. Bettman pretty much said that it's going to stay at the current $83,500,000 level for the 2023/2024 NHL season.</div></div>
Its dependant on playoff revenue. The more series that go to game 6/7, the better. Round one was a cash cow for the owners with almost every series 6/7 games.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 2, 2023 at 2:54 p.m.
Thread:
Escrow deal reached
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>Oh, I understand the term/AAV balance. I just don't think there's any value in signing non-core player to term if they're past their prime. There are always more bottom-6 types willing to join a Cup Contender on the cheap each summer as a means of rebuilding their value and potentially getting a ring.
And you ESPECIALLY don't want to be trading 24 year olds in order to accommodate a long term contract for a 30+ player.</div></div>
Janmark is only 30. He was paid $2.7-2.8 multiple years before coming. Don’t see signing him for $1.1M for a few years as risky.
Same with Ryan at league minimum. He has been worth his current deal, and has always been a late bloomer.
You likely think Bjugstad is an overpay, but he could move to 2nd line when they keep Connor/Leon together.
I like Yamo, but his injuries/concussion is a concern, he is streaky and inconsistent and his size punishes him in playoff. Other than in game 6, he has been awol in the playoffs. Would prefer Bjugstad at $1.9-2.0 than Yamo
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 2, 2023 at 2:52 a.m.
Thread:
Next Season - Big Tade
Kane may sign for $1,000,000, but not until 2029 when is 39 like Gio was when he signed that deal.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 2, 2023 at 2:17 a.m.
Thread:
Escrow deal reached
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>Long term contracts for marginal older players is just what they need! ... said nobody, ever.</div></div>
The term was added to get the cost down. Janmark will get more on a 1-2 yr deal. Ryan will get more than league minimum on a one year deal. Both can be buried when the fall off.
There is talk of Bjugstad wanting close to $3m. To get a 3rd line right center, we need term or else the cost will be too high.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 2, 2023 at 2:12 a.m.
Thread:
Escrow deal reached
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Babatunde</b></div><div>EDM would need to overpay to get a free agent like Killorn. No one takes discounts to play in Alberta</div></div>
Kane did.
McDavid did.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 2, 2023 at 2:11 a.m.
Thread:
Escrow deal reached
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Oiler_fan88</b></div><div>Gudas current contract is 2,500,000</div></div>
He is also 33 at the start of the season and this deal takes him to 37.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 2, 2023 at 1:58 a.m.
Thread:
Escrow deal reached
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>VGKNation702</b></div><div>Why would Killorn take less than he’s making now?</div></div>
Kilhorn is 34 at the start of next season and this deal takes him to 38. Regression is a thing.
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