I used this article to roughly estimate draft pick values.
https://soundofhockey.com/2022/06/06/examining-the-value-of-nhl-draft-picks/
I have CHI technically giving up more value in favor of higher picks, according to the cited article.
In the past, Jones has proven to be effective when partnered with large frame defensive defenseman, like Gavrikov. I don't think Vlasic will be able to skate quite as many minutes as Jones yet, but I think he will be able to eat enough minutes to remain a top 4 dman. So, there will certainly be some rotation in the pairings, which is not unusual anyway.
I think Killorn would be a perfect fit to put with Bedard. He is big, tough, and skilled. He has done a lot of winning with Tampa and could be a great influence on young players. This will mainly depend on what his intentions are, though. I don't think Tampa will be able to keep him around, but I could certainly see him preferring to go to a contender. Depends on what kind of contract he is asking for, though. If he is more concerned about getting paid, CHI could be the perfect fit. Plus, who wouldn't want to come play with the young Connor Bedard?
I have Phillips and Mitchell together. I know it seems like Mitchell is on his way out, but I would like to run an experiment and see if his and Phillips chemistry from the 21-22 season in Rockford will translate to the NHL level. I don't think Mitchell has been utilized properly or put in a situation to succeed, and I get why those decisions have been made, but if we aren't serious about next season and don't have anyone else knocking on the door, why not waive Zaitsev and give Mitchell a longer look. At the very least, they could try to squeeze more trade value out of him than he currently has.
I think the key with the Killorn signing is playing him with Bedard. Outside of that, I think the top 6 here could be messed with and will depend on what kind of chemistry develops in camp. I think the second line could easily be [Johnson - Guttman - Raddysh] again, with a top line of [Reichel - Bedard - Killorn], but NHL coaches don't typically put two young 1st/2nd-ish year players on a top line together. Or even have Raddysh on the top line too. Or maybe they even shelter Bedard a LITTLE bit in his first season and put him on the second line and/or the wing.
With the way the rebuild has trended, I am finding it harder and harder to see Kurashev being in CHI long term. I get the feeling Davidson will dangle him in trades, or at least be willing to move him if someone asks. Which is why I opted to include him in the trade with DET, adding a little more value in an NHL ready roster player with decent upside to entice Yzerman to make the move.
So, according to this proposed scenario, CHI would have the 1st, 9th, and 14th overall picks in the 2023 draft. We give up some value, but gain better odds at adding cornerstone type players to the prospect pool. This early in the rebuild process, I think that is more important. Down the road we can start to spread picks back out and try to fill some holes and add some role players through the draft.
I would like to reiterate that, no matter what you or I or anyone else thinks of these trades, the values are based on someone else's data model. So, I cannot take credit for them. But, I do feel pretty confident that, even if they aren't QUITE right, they are pretty close to being realistic, value-wise. Whether these teams would actually be willing to make the moves is a different conversation all together.
Did everyone miss the Ted Lasso reference, too? "Mercy Buckets"
I like these moves a lot, although I would like to keep Kurashev and resign Domi. That Reichel-Domi-Kurashev line only got three games together last season, but they looked pretty good at generating offense. Although if the Hawks can get a second pick in the top ten and get their hands on Ryan Leonard that’s a slam dunk.
Yeah. I've thought about that a lot too. But, with Bedard likely coming straight into the NHL and likely being utilized as a center, I'd rather not push Guttman (as well as Raddysh and Johnson) down the lineup. Because if you bring back Domi and want to roll that line, what do you end up with? A top 9 like this, maybe...
Idk... I guess KD will just give Richardson the bodies and let the coaching staff figure all of that out, anyway. But, I find it hard to strike that balance between creating competition to make the roster and being loose and not blocking opportunities for young players and prospects. I also worry that this would be too good of a lineup for the rebuild, thus lowering the quality of our draft capital.
Do you then start Bedard on the 3rd line and shelter him a bit while he acclimates? I don't know if that is possible. Like most people, I think he is going to step right in and be a threat and start the season on the top line.
Yeah. I've thought about that a lot too. But, with Bedard likely coming straight into the NHL and likely being utilized as a center, I'd rather not push Guttman (as well as Raddysh and Johnson) down the lineup. Because if you bring back Domi and want to roll that line, what do you end up with? A top 9 like this, maybe...
Idk... I guess KD will just give Richardson the bodies and let the coaching staff figure all of that out, anyway. But, I find it hard to strike that balance between creating competition to make the roster and being loose and not blocking opportunities for young players and prospects. I also worry that this would be too good of a lineup for the rebuild, thus lowering the quality of our draft capital.
Do you then start Bedard on the 3rd line and shelter him a bit while he acclimates? I don't know if that is possible. Like most people, I think he is going to step right in and be a threat and start the season on the top line.
Yeah that definitely makes sense, I’d rather have Guttman getting bigger minutes as a 2C over resigning Domi. Plus it’s probably a lot more entertaining to have Reichel and Bedard feeding passes to each other.
I don’t think we have to worry about them improving their standings that much though. I mean the Oilers finished 29th in the season after they drafted McDavid. That team had Hall, Draisatl, Eberle, and RNH to go along with him.
For sure. That was something I was a bit less clear on. Earlier, a DET fan made a similar trade and implied that DET has most of their big pieces in place and needs to add more quantity now to fill holes and such. I am kind of on the fence about that, I think DET has prospects with real potential to be cornerstones, but they haven't really proven it yet.
That Detroit fan was certainly not aware of our team weaknesses then lol. Organizationally, it could be argued that we only have 4-5 top 6 players and 1 top 4 RD. We definitely need another RD and top 6 player if we want to be anything in a few years. We have depth for days, however.
Yeah that definitely makes sense, I’d rather have Guttman getting bigger minutes as a 2C over resigning Domi. Plus it’s probably a lot more entertaining to have Reichel and Bedard feeding passes to each other.
I don’t think we have to worry about them improving their standings that much though. I mean the Oilers finished 29th in the season after they drafted McDavid. That team had Hall, Draisatl, Eberle, and RNH to go along with him.
True. But if we were to add Killorn AND Domi or players of their caliber, and rolling 3 fairly skilled lines under Richardson, they could probably do a lot better than most people would think. I'm not worried about making the playoffs. But, I am worried about slipping out of the top 5, or, god forbid, the top 10 next year. haha. There are still a lot of great players next year too. But the caliber and depth is looking to be significantly lower at every tier.
True. But if we were to add Killorn AND Domi or players of their caliber, and rolling 3 fairly skilled lines under Richardson, they could probably do a lot better than most people would think. I'm not worried about making the playoffs. But, I am worried about slipping out of the top 5, or, god forbid, the top 10 next year. haha. There are still a lot of great players next year too. But the caliber and depth is looking to be significantly lower at every tier.
Richardson will for sure have this team working hard and stealing wins. Just gotta hope Mrazek can tank command us to another top 3 pick. I really need Eiserman on Bedard’s wing.
Richardson will for sure have this team working hard and stealing wins. Just gotta hope Mrazek can tank command us to another top 3 pick. I really need Eiserman on Bedard’s wing.
Or win the lottery again and draft Celebrini. haha. A guy can dream, right?
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. The entire league might just implode with outrage if that happens.
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