This is an outgrowth and further exploration of an ACGM for 23-24 suggested by a Toronto fan. You can see the original post here: https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/4208883
The idea here is to re-sign Ryan O'Reilly and Ilya Samsonov in 2023 and then Auston Matthews and William Nylander in 2024. One issue of discussion is whether this can be done while buying out Matt Murray, for whom the hit would be $2 million in the season shown. The results here suggest that it's close enough that if some numbers were massaged, it could be done (if, say, O'Reilly or Schenn took $250,000 less), and if the cap rose to $85 million it would be easy. Of course, we wouldn't know that in 2023 when it came time to buy Murray out. (I'm too cyni- , er, experienced to put a lot of credulity in rumors that it might rise to $87 million in 2024.)
I've given Nylander $9 million because his current cap hit is deceiving, based upon the fact that he signed his existing deal in the middle of the season. He's actually getting paid $6.5 million per year, so I think that my figure is in the ballpark.
O'Reilly, Samsonov, Schenn, Kampf, Acciari, Lafferty and Gustafsson were signed to the multi-year deals shown in 2023. So was Giordano, but he was signed for one season so I had to re-sign him again because he just won't retire.
Jalen Chatfield is my sole step-out here. He might have outpriced me by 2024 or made me look foolish expecting him to be a #3 RhD at that point.
RFA signings with the odd number are guys I expect to be with the Marlies, but it's possible that a year from now, one or more of them might be ready for auditions or even full time, particularly the defensemen (whom I don't know well). I dialed that number because CapFriendly won't tell me what the Qualifying Offers for RFAs expiring NEXT season will be.
Bottom line: plenty of room in this roster for whatever sensible adjustment you might like to make. You keep the Big 5 in 2023 without any of those silly trades. you keep the Big 5 in the year shown while re-upping Matthews and Nylander, and after 2025, with Tavares' $11 million coming off the books, you have enough for Marner's raise and a quality McCabe replacement plus Matthews, Nylander and Rielly into the future along with Marner.
Don’t be cyni-, er, experienced about the cap. Once the escrow is paid off, which is expected to be in first quarter of 2023-24 season, they will automatically revert back to the original CBA with 50/50 split with cap ceiling pegged to hockey-related revenues. It will be first cap figure based on that formula since the new tv deals, so it could be significant jump.
I think it’s kind of built-in…and should be base-case that we are up to 87m or so for 2024-25.
(Of course, the impact of 1/3 of regional networks going bust has yet the flow through league balance sheets…)
Same problems as all these teams. Bottom 6 is weak and defence is lacking true shutdown guys
Yeah, but what you get dealt is what you get dealt. Putting a quality shutdown defenseman in there means losing O'Reilly. Putting Alex Iafallo in there means losing Calle Jarnkrok or Jake McCabe. Nothing is free and tradeoffs are inescapable.