But they aren't playing similar roles. The usage category is very clear about this. One is in the 92nd percentile of hardest minutes/role/quality of teammates and the other is in the 37th percentile of the same category. I've looked at Moneypuck, naturalstattrick, hockey reference, and Dom's model and they all have Pesce playing a more 50/50 role of Ozone starts to Dzone starts while some of the models have Pesce having more offensive zone starts than Dzone starts. Parayko on the other hand is getting handed very defensively skewed minutes because we have to shelter the 2nd pair of Krug and Faulk. My whole argument is Parayko is a 2nd pairing D who is being played in harder minutes than he has ever before. He's being played as if he is a top 5D in the league and he is simply being overwhelmed because of that. Put him on the 2nd pair like he used to be in 2015-2019 and he'll play much better. He was the best defensive defensemen on the blues from 2016-2019 and allowed Pietrangelo to play in a more offensive role. Putting Pesce in the spot Parayko is in and he will crumble the same way playing harder minutes than he has every played with a way worse partner and not having Slavin to play in front of him. I'm not saying Parayko is better than Pesce, I think Pesce is slightly better than Parayko but he isn't miles ahead of him and certainly the worth is not a boluc plus a 20241st better than him.

I mean Parayko might not be as bad as he looks given his deployment, but he’s being paid like a number 1 which is the whole problem. With Pesce you can replace his minutes for a player who is marginally better and save 2.5M in cap space to improve your team for when he’s not on the ice (you know, what you’ve said the whole problem is)

Parayko is only being paid 6.5 mil which is fine for a 2nd pairing defensemen. Pesce is going to make more than 6.5 mil on his new contract next year. I mean Parayko cap hit is tied for 29th overall with 5 others and is slightly ahead of other players like Ekholm, Sanheim, Severson, Pulock, Petry, Weegar, Morrisey, etc... With the cap rising and new RFA that need to be paid, Pesce, Dahlin, Hanafin, etc... his cap hit will become even lower overall

Every player you mentioned as a comp leads their team in ice time against the top competition without getting caved in with the lone exceptions of Severson (he might this year tho) and Petry (he used to but is old and washed up)

There is no possible way you compared Parayko to Ekholm, Morrissey, Weegar and Severson. Jesus Christ. 6.5 is not fine for a 2RHD who gets peppered any higher than the second pairing. Severson is making 6.25 with near Parayko's usage and has a much better defensive and offensive impact. It's not even close man. Parayko just isn't that good.

EKholm plays with a better partner in Bouchard and they also have Nurse on the other pair. Sanheim also never played against the top competition on the flyers and that was left to Provorov and now York takes those responsibilities. Pulock has Pelech and Dobson with him. Weegar on Florida had Ekblad playing with him and now on the Flames has Hanafin, Andersson, and Tanev. Morrisey is the one who has doing very well and is not getting caved in and that's why he is a #1D. He also signed a longterm contract a couple years ago and that's why his cap hit is lower. Petry also doesn't paly against the top competition as Letang does that. Parayko plays with Nick Leddy and has Krug and Faulk as the 2nd pair. All 3 of those defensemen are worse than Hanafin, Andersson, Dobson, Pelech, Ekblad, Letang

Weegar took the difficult assignments away from Ekblad, Ekholm did the same for Josi, Petry shared the burden with Weber in Montreal but also took many of the difficult minutes. Parayko’s best comp is probably Scott Mayfield (except Mayfield performed excellently next to Leddy). Parayko is a fine player on the ice, but overpaid by roughly 2.5M for the next 7 years and he will only get worse. Unless a team is willing to overpay him by that much for the next 7 years, he has negative value because he represents an opportunity cost. We can agree to disagree on if St Louis actually wants to trade him (despite all the rumours), they will almost certainly have to pay a premium (or retain which is unlikely since they want to compete themselves) if they are to move him. Ultimately, if they see a championship window and a better and/or cheaper replacement for his minutes, the cost is not that hard to swallow. Zach Dean doesn’t forecast as anything more than a middle six player, those are relatively abundant

Yeah when Pietrangelo was here Parayko took the harder matchups which allowed for Petro to thrive in a more offensive role, but still he had petro to help him out. There is no one on the blues to help lighten the load of Parayko. Even when Weegar took some of the assignments away from Ekblad he still had Ekblad on the team taking the other difficult assignments. Same with Ekholm and Josi. Just because Ekholm took on the difficult assignments he didn't take them all on and still have Josi to help out. All of the guys you mentioned had another very good defensemen to help out with assignments as well as drive the offense. Also with Mayfield and Leddy that was when Leddy was younger and better as well as they had Pelech and Pulock in front of them. Parayko doesn't have anyone to help lighten the load because the blues have to shelter Krug on the 2nd pair and he's getting like 60% Ozone starts with some of the weakest competition. Yeah Parayko hasn't perfomed well and some of that is due to his decline in performance, but also he is getting set up to fail because of his usage and the teammates around him. Put a Weegar or an Ekholm on this team instead of Parayko and they would also look bad because they would be the only good defensemen on the team.

Heh. You try to float by on dumbdumb Dom's model and then accuse me of having a superficial point. Hilarious.

Yeah, because I would rather use stats and raw data to get a good read on players. Rather than overvaluing them simply because they play for my team. A common trend with you.

Heh. TRANSLATION: I don't actually watch these players play, nor do I understand what raw data means.

Dude, Dom's model and all models like it are entirely subjective. And speaking of fluffing up one's own team's players, this is the same model that in like March had Lily worth nearly twice as much as Thomas and Kyrou for this past season. Raw data....

Heh. The models aren’t subjective. They calculate a players 5v5 impact relative to their QoC, QoT, Zone%, Zone denials/entries, etc.

Lily was performing great this season. Was stellar in a shut down role but was in Keefe’s doghouse. If you’re going to focus way too much on “Market value”, then sure. But I like the charts for Offensive and defensive impact. Every chart has its flaws. Even JFresh, Andy & Rono, and Evolving-Hockey have their flaws. But you’ll find that each chart is very similar in the way they are made to calculate player value and performance. They use raw data wether you like it or not. Choosing to ignore that because you don’t like that the player on your team played like doodoo isn’t really my fault.

But he wears the Blues crest so he must be worth so much!!!

Holy crap. You think analytics and models are objective stats. Dude. They're almost all based solely on on ice stats. Not only are they fully subjective formulas based on xG, another fully subjective formula, but they're not even based on individual stats. I mean, how out of the loop mathematically can one get? Yikes.

This is a projection methinks. I literally told you how doms models are created, and you just chose to ignore it. They are used by evaluating QoC, QoT, 5v5 impact, zone denials and entries based on Zone start%. But yeah, I’m out of the loop mathematically, whatever that means. The models don’t like Parayko. Rightfully so, he’s overrated. Just a big guy with average defensive metrics.

“They are almost all based solely on on ice stats”
As all hockey statistics are, yes. 💀 Does Parayko have a teammates/60 stat I don’t know about? Gatorade/60?

Erm... all hockey stats are on-ice? Never heard of goals? Assists? Hits, takeaways, saves? And if you want to get super fancy, goals/60, shots through percentage, power play assists, penalties drawn, penalty kill shot blocks, zone exits and controlled zone entries. Why do I need to explain what an individual stat is? This is blowing my mind.

I know full and well what Dom's decent enough regular season betting model is and how it works. Honestly, I think you need to fold some basic math knowledge into your research. It could help you understand what you're looking at (and that what you're looking at requires context). Or you could just watch more hockey.

Almost everything you’ve said is taken into account in the models. Like I said 3 times now. The model predicts how the player will perform ALONG with how they actually perform.

But yeah, math. Thanks for the laughs 💀

If you’re not using some type of model or combination of models to evaluate players consistently, how are you doing it? Genuinely curious? I get watching players provided additional context and all models have issues and gaps which need to be taken into account. But it’s also not realistic to expect everybody to watch every player. And unless you do that equally there’s no way to measure players against each other.

If you’re not a Blues fan and don’t watch every game Parayko has ever played (apparently), then you don’t know what you’re talking about (apparently). Mokumboi is widely known to do this kind of thing.

I like using the charts. While like you said, they have gaps, they give you a good read on how a player has performed in a season. I don’t really know what he’s on about, how charts are subjective? I guess statistics are subjective? I dunno. I guess I need to do more math lol.

Advanced metrics will never come close to his eye test!

I never said I never look at analytics, nor did I suggest everybody should watch every player religiously to speak on them.

What I did say flat out for the 1000th time is no one can solely judge a player on analytics. And I also suggested that no one who solely judges players on analytics should be speaking as fact on players/teams they never watch, or calling others biased/ignorant. Neither of these messages is even remotely controversial.

Oh, that's abundantly clear. We got that already, man. You obviously, somehow do not know and need to do more math instead of lashing out with feeble personal attack attempts out of left field.

Goals scored, saves, wins, losses = objective individual stats a ka raw data. Corsi, RAPM, all xG related stats, all on-ice stats, basically all of analytics = subjective a ka humans took some data, raw or not, and made a formula.

I'm honestly baffled at what could possibly be confusing about any of this.

I like to call put Blues fans (all 3 of them) for massively overrating their players. I don’t need to watch all 82 of Parayko’s games in an NHL season to know he gets peppered and outputs an average defensive impact.

Each major content created stat chart are all relatively similar. And with the stats they use, those aren’t subjective. But hey, whine some more because I said your favourite player isn’t that good, I guess?