That's a terrible return for Grier. For that, he should be demanding another 1st and one of Pickering/Yager.

Those are bad deals for the pens, they need to retain Poulin and Nylander, only move one of Smith or POJ, and Carter said he will only play in Pit so he won’t waive his clause.

The return for Karlsson is going to be very underwhelming. He is extremely expensive and has a small amount of teams interested. Get ready for not a lot of return.

Yeah this is my feeling as well, you're probably looking at less than the Eichel package a few years ago. That package was an NHL roster player (Tuch), NHL ready A prospect (Krebs), protected 1st round pick, and a conditional second for Eichel and a 3rd round pick. Karlsson is older and more expensive than Eichel was so realistically it will probably be a NHL roster player, a prospect, and a first for Karlsson with retention and a pick.

Would Granlund + POJ + 1st + 3rd for Karlsson ($4M retained) + 4th work then?

I am going to be honest I am not as well acquainted with Pittsburgh's prospects to know what would be a fair deal but that is probably closer. I also think that SJS might want more picks/prospects instead of an NHL player because they are in a more rebuilding stage than Buffalo was when they traded Eichel. Also I think Grier said he was only willing to retain 20 or 30 percent of Karlsson.

EF said it’s closer to 40% than 20% now— I think poulin would be best for you guys. He had a really good development camp and honestly has a chance to see time in PIT this year

It's not even a remotely close comparison. This package is useless trash for Grier. He might as well not make this trade. It's not worth the retained salary. I say that as a PIT fan. Tuch is a useful player that was worth at least a 3rd round pick. More now. Carter is a liability that should be LTIRetired. He would require a pick to trade. Krebs is 1st round high ceiling player. Poulin is a low ceiling player that has floundered in the AHL. Nylander is a 4th liner/AHLer tweener. Rutta is a serviceable bottom pairing dman. Might be worth a mid round pick.

Why is it an unreasonable comparison? I wasn't saying anything about the players that were getting traded but I think everyone is overvaluing Karlsson in the current market. SJ is not going to get a lot for a defenseman who 1) not that good at defense, 2) has an albatross of a contract when the cap is stagnant, 3) is 33 years old, and 4) has a full NMC. Realistically SJ is going to get less than what Buffalo got for Eichel and it will fall around something like:

NHL roster player, A B tier prospect, First round pick -> Karlsson (20-40% retention), Later round pick
or
Combination of prospects and higher round picks -> Karlsson (20-40% retention), Later round pick

That would be something like Petry/Granlund, 2024 1st, Pickering/Yager. Not Carter (who likely won't waive his NMC) that isn't an NHL player regardless so he probably can't even be flipped at 50% retention and Poulin who is probably worth a mid round pick at most.