If we did it straight up, we aren’t retaining

I cant see this making any sense. It's just a slow news day

Vanecek is the better, cheaper, and younger player. Gibson is a liability.

2018 was a long time ago. Gibson is on the wrong side of his career arc.

I dont see anybody trading for that contract tbh, even if the Ducks retain. Too much of a risk with 4 years remaining for a guy who is seemingly just cooked. Devils certainly wouldnt do it either, as hes a straight downgrade from Vanecek.

If the Ducks retain 1.4m or 2M, and some team finds that they are having goalie problems, they very well might look at Gibson and hope he's better than his stats.

Honestly, considering he's been posting around a .900 SV% with the shot volume he faced, I think with a good defence he's at least an average starting goaltender. I do wonder though if he's burnt out now.

What it comes down to always is cost of acquisition, the consequences of adding him in terms of cap outlook, and how likely can they get out of his contract if things go wrong

Hellebuyck has faced the heaviest workload over the last three seasons and has performed FAR SUPERIOR. Some other notable heavy workload goalies are also Vasilevskiy, Shesterkin, and Saros. Reality is, he should be able to perform well even under a heavy workload or he isn't worth the contract risk to begin with. So isolating on Gibson he appears to be a risky acquisition. Most teams would be much safer taking two low risk options in lieu of taking on Gibson. If he were put on waivers, I think he would pass through easily.

First off, the guys you mentioned are guys who are or will be paid 8M+. My argument isn't that Gibson is as good as them or that he is even worth his current 6.4M either. I think he would slot into the next category of elite goaltenders below the top 6: guys who can be Vezina winners but aren't always competing for it.

Look at shots faced per 60. Hellebuyck plays more so sure you can say he has the heaviest load over the season, but Gibson faced 40 shots per game last season.

The goalies who faced the highest shot totals over the past 4-seasons (where Gibson had a 902 SV %) are Hellebuyck, Vasilevsky, Saros, Gibson, and Markstrom. Past 3, it's Saros, Hellebuyck, Gibson, Vasilevsky, Sorokin.

Over the past 3-seasons (I can't do 4), the highest shots against/60 among starters with 100+ games:

Vejmelka: 35.07 (.899 in 102GP)
Gibson: 34.92 (.902 in 144)
Merzlikins: 34.21 (.902 in 117 )
Demko: 32.38 (.912 in 131)
Allen: 32.2 (.900 in 106)
Saros: 32.14 (.921 in 167)
Hellebuyck: 31.82 (.915 in 175)
Hart: 31.77 (.900 in 127)
(Reimer: 31. 39 (.902 in 113))
Kuemper: 30.92 (.914 in 141)

Skipping guys now:
Shesterkin: 30.68 (.923 in 146 ), Sorokin 30.6 (.924 in 136), Ullmark 30.24 (.926 in 110), Vasilevsky 30.23 (.918 in 165 GP), Samsonov 28.62 (.907 in 105), Vanecek 28.41 (.909 in 131 GP), Markstrom 27.87 (.907 in 165), and Andersen 27.32 (.911 in 110)

Gibson also faced the most high danger shots/60 in the past 3 years among goalies who played 5000+ minutes. The problem is that his save percentage is only the 19th best (Hellebuyck is 17th).

1. Gibson: 10.52 (.819)
2. Vejmelka: 10.41 (.807)
3. Allen: 9.61 (.797)
5. Hart 9.21 (.817)
7. Hellebuyck 9.14 (.822)
9. Shesterkin 8.97 (.860)
10. Merzlikins 8.9 (.807)
11. Demko 8.85 (.827)
13. Sorokin 8.83 (.847)
16. Kuemper 8.54 (.825)
17. Vasilevsky 8.53 (.836)
19. Saros 8.42 (.843)
26. Andersen 7.88 (.816)
28. Samsonov 7.75 (.824)
29. Ullmark 7.71 (.840)
31. Markstrom 7.57 (.823)
33. Vanecek 7.37 (.796)

Vanecek with NJ:
SA/60: 27.43 | Sv%: .911 | HD shots against/60: 7.06 | HDSSV%: .802%

My conclusion from all this is that yes, Gibson would probably pass through waivers if he was waived now, but if it was July 1st or 2nd, maybe a team takes a chance. If a team can get the shots he faces down to around 29-31, at worst, I think he gets a similar save percentage as Vanecek (.909 at ~3M more). It's probably a good bet that he can get up to a similar save % as Kuemper (. 914 at 1.4M more - same as Hellebuyck but if you reduce his load I think that goes up). The outside hope would be that he's actually a top-6 goalie but that would be far from the expectation. Now, if you're trading for him with 1-2M retention, that would make him far more interesting.

In the context of NJ trading for him, I think it's worthwhile to explore if Anaheim is willing to retain at least 1-1.4m, depending on how much they need to add on top of Vanecek. NJ is great at suppressing shots and Gibson is better than Vanecek at saving high-danger shots. The 4-year term on Gibson's contract shouldn't be too scary considering they have Schmid who can likely be bridged for 2-3 years at 4M or less.