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Ottawa lost on Debrincat explained

Created by: Spaceman
Team: 2023-24 Ottawa Senators
Initial Creation Date: Jul. 11, 2023
Published: Jul. 11, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Ottawa trades the 7th overall pick in 2022, 39th overall pick 2022 and a 3rd round pick in 2024 in exchange for Dominik Kubalik, Donavan Sebrango, a 2024 conditional 1st (likely around mid 20's) a 2024 4th round pick and 27 goals during the 2022-2023 season which didn't put you over the top to get into the playoffs.

That's called bad asset management.

A reminder you also did not get Berggren which was apparently a must have / deal breaker in any deal for cat according to every Sens fan.
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DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2024
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2025
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2026
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
18$83,500,000$78,467,380$0$1,850,000$5,032,620
Left WingCentreRight Wing
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$8,205,714$8,205,714
LW
UFA - 5
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$8,350,000$8,350,000
C
UFA - 8
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$6,500,000$6,500,000
RW, C
NMC
UFA - 2
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$2,950,000$2,950,000
LW, RW
UFA - 3
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$863,333$863,333
C, LW
RFA - 2
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$4,975,000$4,975,000
RW, LW
UFA - 4
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$2,500,000$2,500,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
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$835,000$835,000
C, RW
RFA - 2
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$775,000$775,000
RW, C
UFA - 3
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$762,500$762,500
LW
RFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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$8,000,000$8,000,000
LD
UFA - 5
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$4,600,000$4,600,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 4
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$4,000,000$4,000,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 5
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$4,600,000$4,600,000
LD/RD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
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$1,100,000$1,100,000
RD
NMC
UFA - 2
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$2,000,000$2,000,000
LD/RD, LW
RFA - 1
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$805,000$805,000
RD
RFA - 2
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$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$1,850,000$2M)
LD
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
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$7,950,000$7,950,000
C
UFA - 7
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$2,750,000$2,750,000
G
UFA - 2

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Jul. 11, 2023 at 7:09 p.m.
#26
sensonfire
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Quoting: Spaceman
Unless the pick is 7th overall or better, it's lost value.


For now it is.

Although if Kubalik scores as many goals as the Cat or if Boston is struggling to make the playoffs by American Thanksgiving, that could change.

We'll see what happens.
Jul. 11, 2023 at 7:13 p.m.
#27
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Quoting: sensonfire
For now it is.

Although if Kubalik scores as many goals as the Cat or if Boston is struggling to make the playoffs by American Thanksgiving, that could change.

We'll see what happens.


No guarantees Kubalik signs long term in Ottawa. You may only have him for 1 season then bolts as a UFA. He did score 20 goals but 15 of those were in the first half of the season. 2nd half when things ramped up he ghosted and was a non factor on most nights. ended the season playing 10 minutes a night on the 4th line.
Jul. 11, 2023 at 7:22 p.m.
#28
sensonfire
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Quoting: Spaceman
No guarantees Kubalik signs long term in Ottawa. You may only have him for 1 season then bolts as a UFA. He did score 20 goals but 15 of those were in the first half of the season. 2nd half when things ramped up he ghosted and was a non factor on most nights. ended the season playing 10 minutes a night on the 4th line.


If we're struggling to acquire another Top 6 forward, I'd offer Kubalik a two year deal at 4 million per.

And if he wants more than that, he can go find it somewhere else.
Jul. 11, 2023 at 7:29 p.m.
#29
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Quoting: RedWing9119
Tkachuk will only run his mouth when there's no one his size on the opposing team. At heart; he's a coward just like his father. If we have Rasmussen or Soderblom in the lineup he'll be as meek as a kitten, trust me.


Soderblom isn't really a fighter. He plays like a 5'9" skill forward trapped in a 6'8" body. Once he realized just how goddamn big he is and starts using his body to his full advantage. He'll be a terror.
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Jul. 12, 2023 at 6:28 a.m.
#30
Joe
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Quoting: sensonfire
I remember when you people all thought Detroit would just get DeBrincat for free as a UFA.

Including the OP.

And if Detroit did trade for DeBrincat, we would barely get any scraps, let alone a 1st round pick.

Good times.


Don't act like it didn't swing both ways. You were especially egregious with your expectations.
Jul. 12, 2023 at 6:31 a.m.
#31
Joe
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Quoting: sensonfire
My most recent asking price was ...

Berggren
Boston's 1st
Maybe a 2nd

vs

Kubalik
Likely Boston's 1st
Sebrango
A 4th


Value-wise, I wasn't that far off from what Yzerman actually paid.

But compared to the first trade with Chicago, yes, Ottawa lost to Detroit.



We also got a first and a player who only scored 7 fewer goals than DeBrincat last season from Yzerman.

It is what it is.

Time to move on.


Berggren himself is worth more than all those other add-ons lol.
Jul. 12, 2023 at 6:32 a.m.
#32
Joe
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Quoting: AnonymousSensFan
TB's role isn't elite goal scoring. It's physical play. They said it when they drafted him. He's a player who may not turn out. We'll see. Don't really care.

Zadina may have been a Holland pick, but it's the almighty Stevie Y who signed him to a 3 year, 5.5m deal. Guess Stevie liked what he saw at the time.

Anyways, I'm done feeding the troll. Enjoy your 5'7 winger. We'll be sure to keep Brannstrom around so Cat has someone his size to fight. That is, if he's actually still willing to. As we saw last February, we know what happens when Red Wings are expected to play with grit and challenged.


Your guy's obsession with a regular season B2B is honestly kinda pathetic considering you still missed the playoffs.
Jul. 12, 2023 at 8:56 a.m.
#33
sensonfire
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Quoting: JoeROFLCOPTER
Don't act like it didn't swing both ways. You were especially egregious with your expectations.


Having expectations comes with needing to trade a star player to a division rival.

It's impossible to be fair.
Jul. 12, 2023 at 8:58 a.m.
#34
sensonfire
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Quoting: JoeROFLCOPTER
Berggren himself is worth more than all those other add-ons lol.


Or maybe Berggren had one good season as a bottom 6 forward and he's grossly overrated.

We won't know until the next season gets underway.
Jul. 12, 2023 at 9:04 a.m.
#35
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Quoting: sensonfire
Having expectations comes with needing to trade a star player to a division rival.

It's impossible to be fair.


and from Detroit's standpoint, they're trading for a player that only wanted to sign with them.
Jul. 12, 2023 at 9:05 a.m.
#36
Joe
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Quoting: sensonfire
Or maybe Berggren had one good season as a bottom 6 forward and he's grossly overrated.

We won't know until the next season gets underway.


Ah yes, parity when it comes to prospects; the most annoying argument plausible.
Jul. 12, 2023 at 9:13 a.m.
#37
sensonfire
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Quoting: JoeROFLCOPTER
and from Detroit's standpoint, they're trading for a player that only wanted to sign with them.


If that's the case, Yzerman had maximum leverage over Dorion and shouldn't have given up a 1st round pick.
Jul. 12, 2023 at 9:27 a.m.
#38
Joe
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Edited Jul. 12, 2023 at 9:39 a.m.
Quoting: sensonfire
If that's the case, Yzerman had maximum leverage over Dorion and shouldn't have given up a 1st round pick.


Simply stating that was the viewpoint from many Red Wings fans. Dorion did well to hide this from Detroit because, post-trade, didn't he just out that he only wanted to go to Detroit?
But, in terms of value, I wouldn't say he was far off from a 1st+2nd, probably an early playoff 1st. It's closer to just a mid 1st than it is 7OA, that's for sure.
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Jul. 12, 2023 at 2:13 p.m.
#39
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Quoting: sensonfire
Or maybe Berggren had one good season as a bottom 6 forward and he's grossly overrated.

We won't know until the next season gets underway.


Berggren dominated his peers as an 18 year old in Sweden's junior league. He was a a near ppg player in the SHL at 20 years old. He was a near ppg player in the AHL at 21 years old. At 22 made the jump to the NHL and didn't look out of place at all and scored 1 point every 7 periods of hockey showing good confidence and played good defense as well. 28 points in 67 games. All projections point to him being an impactful top 6 forward by the age of 25. Impactful being around a 60-80 point guy. Possibly more. Pavel Datsyuk had 35 points in 70 games as a rookie playing a bottom six role. He turned out to have a pretty good career. We value Berggren on where he'll be in 3-4 years, not what he achieved as a bottom six forward rookie. Which is exactly why he was not going to be included in any deal for DeBrincat.
Jul. 12, 2023 at 5:27 p.m.
#40
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Quoting: sensonfire
My most recent asking price was ...

Berggren
Boston's 1st
Maybe a 2nd

vs

Kubalik
Likely Boston's 1st
Sebrango
A 4th


Value-wise, I wasn't that far off from what Yzerman actually paid.

But compared to the first trade with Chicago, yes, Ottawa lost to Detroit.



We also got a first and a player who only scored 7 fewer goals than DeBrincat last season from Yzerman.

It is what it is.

Time to move on.


Sensonfire is just coping. Sens lost really bad on the Debrincat experiment.

Berggren + Boston 1st + 2nd (your expectation) is exceptionally higher than Kubalik (UFA in 1 year) + Boston 1st (likely) + 4th (10% chance to play 1 game in NHL) + Sebrango (who will be a career AHL'er and emergency call up for a few games here and there at best). The only piece of any significance long term for Ottawa is the worse of the two 1st round picks. Somewhere in the 20's very likely. Unless they hit a home run on that pick. Value wise Yzerman took full advantage of Dorions plight and gave him lower than market value for DeBrincat.
Jul. 12, 2023 at 6:25 p.m.
#41
sensonfire
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Quoting: Spaceman
Sensonfire is just coping. Sens lost really bad on the Debrincat experiment.

Berggren + Boston 1st + 2nd (your expectation) is exceptionally higher than Kubalik (UFA in 1 year) + Boston 1st (likely) + 4th (10% chance to play 1 game in NHL) + Sebrango (who will be a career AHL'er and emergency call up for a few games here and there at best). The only piece of any significance long term for Ottawa is the worse of the two 1st round picks. Somewhere in the 20's very likely. Unless they hit a home run on that pick. Value wise Yzerman took full advantage of Dorions plight and gave him lower than market value for DeBrincat.


1. There's no coping here.

I've admitted time and time again that the DeBrincat experiment was a loss to Ottawa and I've been open and transparent about it.

I even congratulated Detroit for winning the trade.

Have a look.

https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/742511/2




2. My latest pitch on DeBrincat did not include a 2nd.

It was just Berggren and Boston's 1st.

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/4414152




3. Next season, Boston will not have Bergeron, Krejci or Hall.

They're not the same team and the 1st will be in the early 20s or higher.

I honestly have no idea where it will end up.




4. Value wise, Yzerman did not take full advantage of Dorion's plight.

If he did, Yzerman wouldn't have given up a first.
Jul. 12, 2023 at 6:27 p.m.
#42
sensonfire
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Quoting: Spaceman
Berggren dominated his peers as an 18 year old in Sweden's junior league. He was a a near ppg player in the SHL at 20 years old. He was a near ppg player in the AHL at 21 years old. At 22 made the jump to the NHL and didn't look out of place at all and scored 1 point every 7 periods of hockey showing good confidence and played good defense as well. 28 points in 67 games. All projections point to him being an impactful top 6 forward by the age of 25. Impactful being around a 60-80 point guy. Possibly more. Pavel Datsyuk had 35 points in 70 games as a rookie playing a bottom six role. He turned out to have a pretty good career. We value Berggren on where he'll be in 3-4 years, not what he achieved as a bottom six forward rookie. Which is exactly why he was not going to be included in any deal for DeBrincat.


Comparing Berggren to Datsyuk is laughable.

You should know better.
Jul. 12, 2023 at 6:53 p.m.
#43
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Edited Jul. 12, 2023 at 7:21 p.m.
Quoting: sensonfire
Comparing Berggren to Datsyuk is laughable.

You should know better.


I've been a Wings fans since the early 90's. I remember Dastyuk in his rookie year. Highly skilled young forward playing bottom six minutes. I also remember him being a no show in his first 4 playoffs. 3 goals in his first 42 playoff games. Wings fans after 2006 were calling for him to be traded and were upset he was signed to long term as he wasn't clutch. Hindsight shows how dumb all that chatter was.

I'm comparing Berggren to early career Datsyuk. He wasn't a Selke winner then. He wasn't a top tier player then. It took him 5 years in the NHL before he became that. What will Berggren become? Time will tell. But he's a highly skilled young forward playing bottom six minutes. The fact he was able to produce as much as he did only getting 10 minutes a night is remarkable. It reminds me of Pavel. I'm not trading a highly skilled player away that's guaranteed to be under team control for possibly up to the next 9 seasons before we know what their top end potential truly is.

Maybe Jonatan Berggren will be a first ballot hall of famer when he finally hangs them up. It's not impossible. In 2006 if you were to tell people Datsyuk would be a first ballot hall of famer after he retires people would have laughed at you. Now it's laughable to suggest anything but him being a shoe in for the hall of fame.

Trading Jonatan Berggren for Alex DeBrincat could in 20 years look like the Cam Neely for Barry Pederson trade. At the time Neely was a young player on Vancouver who averaged around 35 points a season and Pederson was a bonafide 100 point per season player for the Bruins. That trade now looks pretty silly for the Vancouver Canucks and pretty awesome for the Boston Bruins.
Jul. 12, 2023 at 7:37 p.m.
#44
sensonfire
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Quoting: Spaceman
I've been a Wings fans since the early 90's. I remember Dastyuk in his rookie year. Highly skilled young forward playing bottom six minutes. I also remember him being a no show in his first 4 playoffs. 3 goals in his first 42 playoff games. Wings fans after 2006 were calling for him to be traded and were upset he was signed to long term as he wasn't clutch. Hindsight shows how dumb all that chatter was.

I'm comparing Berggren to early career Datsyuk. He wasn't a Selke winner then. He wasn't a top tier player then. It took him 5 years in the NHL before he became that. What will Berggren become? Time will tell. But he's a highly skilled young forward playing bottom six minutes. The fact he was able to produce as much as he did only getting 10 minutes a night is remarkable. It reminds me of Pavel. I'm not trading a highly skilled player away that's guaranteed to be under team control for possibly up to the next 9 seasons before we know what their top end potential truly is.

Maybe Jonatan Berggren will be a first ballot hall of famer when he finally hangs them up. It's not impossible. In 2006 if you were to tell people Datsyuk would be a first ballot hall of famer after he retires people would have laughed at you. Now it's laughable to suggest anything but him being a shoe in for the hall of fame.

Trading Jonatan Berggren for Alex DeBrincat could in 20 years look like the Cam Neely for Barry Pederson trade. At the time Neely was a young player on Vancouver who averaged around 35 points a season and Pederson was a bonafide 100 point per season player for the Bruins. That trade now looks pretty silly for the Vancouver Canucks and pretty awesome for the Boston Bruins.


1. I admire that you wrote all this out for me.

But we need to be a bit more honest here.



2. Datsyuk is a centerman and played a more important position.

Berggren is a winger and plays a less important position.

Datsyuk grew, developed, played and succeeded in a winning environment with a winning cast that already won multiple championships.

Berggren does not have that luxury.

And the Selke Trophy is more often than not awarded to a centerman instead of winger.

Berggren and Datsyuk is simply an apples and oranges comparison and means that you are grossly overrating Berggren.




3. If we're only using former Red Wings as a means of comparing Berggren, a more appropriate comparison would be Gustav Nyquist.

A solid player, but by no means a hall of famer.

That's his career potential.

Another Gustav Nyquist.
 
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