Mercer Extension Optimistic

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Created by: TathanOTS

Team: 2024-25 New Jersey Devils

Initial Creation Date: Jul. 25, 2023

Published: Jul. 25, 2023

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Notes

- Using lower estimate from Forbes article for cap. Keeping guys I have to pay like Foote. Assuming Holtz develops to a top 6 winger.

- generally for RFAs besides mercer just doing conservative but reasonable contracts to get them to age 25. Not doing all the checks to see exact age and other RFA considerations. If I'm off assume the years change to make it right.
- Bahl is second year of deal from 2023

- assuming Daws comes back from surgery healthy. Rounded old contract

- assuming positive movement for Foote contract in Bastian/McLeod range

- ignoring players not expected impact cap in 2024-2025 assume they resign reasonably and/or are replaced reasonably. Also draft picks.

- assuming no adverse conditions on McLeod

- Mercer very far down alphabetically. Assuming $8M. If done this year during flat cap that should be the an average estimate.

- Assuming starter Schmido as it's conservative cap space wise.

- Stastny represents whatever the best older cup chasing forward UFA that will sign on for $1.5M next off-season. Impossible to predict. Slot Thompson in if none of the crop is better and just spend $1M on a 14th scratch forward.

- No one can predict exact lines and Lindy likes to mix it up. Especially with a prospect involved. Only look at this broadly as top 6 / bottom 6 and even then it's a projection. Feel free to make arguments for one way or the other in the comments if you like I guess.

Observations:

- This is meant to be viewed as a pair with the conservative one. Only difference in assumptions is $0.750/yr on Mercers contract and Holtz being a top 6 forward as opposed to a washout.

- looks markedly better.

Free Agent Signings

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Bahl, Kevin	1	$1,250,000
Daws, Nico	2	$860,000
Foote, Nolan	2	$1,250,000
McLeod, Michael	3	$2,000,000
Mercer, Dawson	8	$8,000,000
Schmid, Akira	5	$4,000,000
Thompson, Tyce	3	$2,000,000

UFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Stastny, Paul		1	$1,500,000

Recapture Fees

Ilya Kovalchuk: $250,000

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2024
2025
2026

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$87,500,000	$88,988,064	$1,538,897	$6,007,500	-$1,488,064

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Meier, Timo $8,800,000$8,800,000 LW, RW NMC UFA - 7	Hischier, Nico $7,250,000$7,250,000 C M-NTC UFA - 3	Mercer, Dawson $8,000,000$8,000,000 RW, C RFA
Bratt, Jesper $7,875,000$7,875,000 RW, LW NMC UFA - 7	Hughes, Jack $8,000,000$8,000,000 C UFA - 6	Holtz, Alexander $894,167$894,167 ($850,000$850K) RW, LW RFA - 1
Stastny, Paul $1,500,000$1,500,000 C, LW UFA	Haula, Erik $3,150,000$3,150,000 C, LW NTC UFA - 2	Palat, Ondrej $6,000,000$6,000,000 LW, RW NMC UFA - 3
Foote, Nolan $1,250,000$1,250,000 LW RFA	McLeod, Michael $2,000,000$2,000,000 C RFA	Thompson, Tyce $2,000,000$2,000,000 RW RFA

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Hughes, Luke $925,000$925,000 ($1,850,000$2M) LD/RD RFA - 1	Hamilton, Dougie $9,000,000$9,000,000 RD NMC UFA - 4	Vanecek, Vitek $3,400,000$3,400,000 G UFA - 1
Siegenthaler, Jonas $3,400,000$3,400,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 4	Marino, John $4,400,000$4,400,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 3	Schmid, Akira $4,000,000$4,000,000 G RFA
Bahl, Kevin $1,250,000$1,250,000 LD RFA - 1	Nemec, Simon $918,333$918,333 ($3,250,000$3M) RD RFA - 2

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Bastian, Nathan $1,350,000$1,350,000 RW UFA - 1
Lazar, Curtis $1,000,000$1,000,000 RW, C UFA - 1
Vilén, Topias $836,667$836,667 ($57,500$58K) LD RFA - 2

Jul. 25, 2023 at 1:51 p.m.

Kyle_Okposo_Lover

Josh Anderson Sucks

Joined: Feb. 2022

Posts: 4,906

Likes: 2,058

Woah 8x8? I love Mercer but hes not that type of player. I think a 5x5 like Crouse is much more of a blueprint. I could also see a 3x3.33 deal or so too

Jul. 25, 2023 at 2:05 p.m.

TathanOTS

Thread Starter

H13

Joined: Jul. 2023

Posts: 50

Likes: 8

Quoting: Kyle_Okposo_Lover

Woah 8x8? I love Mercer but hes not that type of player. I think a 5x5 like Crouse is much more of a blueprint. I could also see a 3x3.33 deal or so too

Pegged the contract as about average of Boldy and Caufield. Feels like Mercer fits in there. With inflation of the cap looming they looks like $8M to me.

Even a Boeser/Konecny/Guentzel comparison is more like $5.5M-$6M AAV. So upping for inflation more like $7M

A $3M-$5M super team friendly deal would obviously be great. That's bring in a Toffoli level player extra money. I try to err conservatively.

Jul. 25, 2023 at 2:17 p.m.

NHLfan10506

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 42,261

Likes: 19,159

Quoting: Kyle_Okposo_Lover

Woah 8x8? I love Mercer but hes not that type of player. I think a 5x5 like Crouse is much more of a blueprint. I could also see a 3x3.33 deal or so too

He will do better than $5m. They are talking to him about a long-term extension, so buying his UFA years will be expensive. Boldy contract $7m x 7 years is probably best comp. With a little Fitzmagic, it will stick in the sixes.

Jul. 25, 2023 at 2:32 p.m.

Kyle_Okposo_Lover

Josh Anderson Sucks

Joined: Feb. 2022

Posts: 4,906

Likes: 2,058

Quoting: NHLfan10506

Quoting: TathanOTS

I am 1000% not saying he isnt worth a big deal. Hes a really good player. I just think with the deals Fitz has handed out, I cant see him going that high. If Meier Bratt and Hughes were all RFAs and got around 8 on 8 years deal, I cant see him going up 6, maybe 6.5. I mean maybe if the cap goes to like 87 he could get 7x8 years but its just hard to see. I could be wrong tho. He will be worth it no doubt

Tintin liked this.

Jul. 25, 2023 at 2:38 p.m.

NHLfan10506

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 42,261

Likes: 19,159

Quoting: Kyle_Okposo_Lover

Something in the 6’s is my hope.

Fitzy calls it “buy in”…basically everyone has to leave a little money on the table to be a part of the team. Mostly worked thus far. Mercer do the same.

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