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DISSECTING THE KARLSSON TRADE

Created by: Ennis
Team: 2023-24 Nashville Predators
Initial Creation Date: Aug. 6, 2023
Published: Aug. 6, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Trades
1.
NSH
    SAN JOSE:

    We all knew nobody was going to pay that albatross original asking price. We also knew he was asking high to start negotiations. But, damn, what a bad return.

    You moved EK with retention, took back three cap dumps, and all you got out of it was a late first? I would absolutely hate to see what his return would be if they decided to keep him for another year and trade him if his numbers dropped. Yeesh.

    San Jose's blueline is atrocious now (which is fine when you are 'rebuilding'). But it seems like Grier is allergic to puck movers? A D core full of big body DFD's but not a defenseman that can make an exit pass to save his life. And who in gods name is going to play the quarterback on a powerplay?

    Ferraro - Rutta
    Vlasic - Benning
    Simek - Knyzhov/Burroughs/MacDonald
    SJS
    2.
    NSH
      MONTREAL:

      A very weird team to be involved, and some head scratching Hughes decisions.

      Good on you for dumping Hoffman, but why bring Petry back? We know he's a "capable" defender, but Montreal already has a blueline STACKED with blooming young talent much more deserving of the ice time. You just clogged up the pipeline with an aging vet you did a good job getting rid of in the first place. I understand wanting to bring in vets for the young core, and Petry probably has a good relationship with the city (I'm guessing here?), but there are other options available.

      But hey, you got a late second in 2025, so that's good... I guess..
      MTL
      3.
      NSH
        PITTSBURGH:

        The clear winners of the trade. Getting EK at 10m, dumping Rutta and that brutal Granny contract, acquiring a depth player in Pitlick, and getting a 2026 3rd for a bit of retention.

        Dubas masterclass, and they should bounce right back into that wildcard spot if everyone can stay healthy.
        PIT
        Buyouts
        Retained Salary Transactions
        DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
        2024
        Logo of the NSH
        Logo of the NSH
        Logo of the TBL
        Logo of the WPG
        Logo of the NSH
        Logo of the DAL
        Logo of the NSH
        Logo of the CHI
        Logo of the EDM
        Logo of the NSH
        Logo of the DAL
        2025
        Logo of the NSH
        Logo of the TBL
        Logo of the NSH
        Logo of the NSH
        Logo of the NSH
        Logo of the NSH
        Logo of the NSH
        2026
        Logo of the NSH
        Logo of the NSH
        Logo of the NSH
        Logo of the NSH
        Logo of the NSH
        Logo of the NSH
        Logo of the NSH
        ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
        22$83,500,000$75,593,365$0$352,500$7,906,635
        Left WingCentreRight Wing
        Logo of the Nashville Predators
        $3,185,000$3,185,000
        LW, RW
        UFA - 2
        Logo of the Nashville Predators
        $4,500,000$4,500,000
        C
        UFA - 4
        Logo of the Nashville Predators
        $850,000$850,000
        RW, LW
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Nashville Predators
        $1,700,000$1,700,000
        LW, C
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Nashville Predators
        $2,857,143$2,857,143
        C, RW
        UFA - 3
        Logo of the Nashville Predators
        $797,500$797,500 (Performance Bonus$82,500$82K)
        RW
        RFA - 2
        Logo of the Nashville Predators
        $863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$212,500$212K)
        LW, RW
        RFA - 1
        Logo of the Nashville Predators
        $2,500,000$2,500,000
        C, RW
        RFA - 2
        Logo of the Nashville Predators
        $775,000$775,000
        RW, LW
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Nashville Predators
        $775,000$775,000
        LW, RW
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Nashville Predators
        $850,833$850,833 (Performance Bonus$57,500$58K)
        C
        RFA - 1
        Logo of the Nashville Predators
        $800,000$800,000
        C
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Nashville Predators
        $775,000$775,000
        C, LW
        UFA - 1
        Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
        Logo of the Nashville Predators
        $9,059,000$9,059,000
        LD
        NMC
        UFA - 5
        Logo of the Nashville Predators
        $4,500,000$4,500,000
        RD
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Nashville Predators
        $5,000,000$5,000,000
        G
        UFA - 2
        Logo of the Nashville Predators
        $6,750,000$6,750,000
        LD
        NTC
        UFA - 3
        Logo of the Nashville Predators
        $2,750,000$2,750,000
        RD
        UFA - 3
        Logo of the Nashville Predators
        $2,000,000$2,000,000
        G
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Nashville Predators
        $2,000,000$2,000,000
        LD/RD
        UFA - 3
        Logo of the Nashville Predators
        $2,500,000$2,500,000
        RD
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Nashville Predators
        $2,500,000$2,500,000
        RD
        UFA - 1
        ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
        Logo of the Nashville Predators
        $8,500,000$8,500,000
        LW
        NMC
        UFA - 7

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        Aug. 6, 2023 at 3:05 p.m.
        #51
        Evans truther
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        Petry is 100% sure gone by the first puck drop and it has been reported by Eric Engels, his family would've never agreed to lift their NTC to come back here. Montreal's the only team here that doesn't have a negative side in this trade.

        There's two ways to look at the deal for San Jose;
        1: You've traded a Norris finalist for three cap dumps at a staggering price of a single protected first rounder.
        2: You've traded a 33 years old defender with an awful contract who, prior to this year, hasn't played a full 82 games schedule for six straight years and hasn't been a PPG player in those years either. Trading him gives you much better odds at finishing lower in the standings thus hitting a better prospect with your own future picks and the franchises has saved 17 millions dollars of real money by doing so. You don't care much about the return because you've cleared a problem for your rebuild.

        Dubas' betting big time that he traded for last year's Karlsson and not the previous six years of him, if he comes out of the gate by playing 50 games and scoring 40 points it's a big fat L on the Penguins. And his contract is pretty much buyout proof with his 11M$ during his final two years.
        vols94 liked this.
        Aug. 6, 2023 at 3:32 p.m.
        #52
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        Its not great for SJ now. Rutta can be moved. Hoffman can play on the PP and then get moved at the deadline. Granlund is a sunk cost. we will have 2 1st at least for a 2nd year in row and we only retained 1.5M on EK. the 10M in cleared cap space in 3 yrs is a win.
        Aug. 6, 2023 at 3:33 p.m.
        #53
        sLIM
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        Terrible analysis of mtls part. Their blue line is pretty brutal, petry instantly becomes their best RD and is easily tradable at a retained hit for even more assets. Say they move petry for a 2nd and 4th, this means they have bought 2 seconds and a goalie for nothing but the retention on petry, how is that perplexing
        Aug. 6, 2023 at 3:34 p.m.
        #54
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        Quoting: edeangel84
        SJ will be getting a pick in the 18-22 range. That’s hardly bad when they just moved 40M in salary they didn’t need. We are not a contender and we need to stop pretending.

        Did they though?

        Karlsson is owed $39M over the next 4 years. San Jose retained 13%, or $5M. They took back 3 players: Hoffman ($5M), Granlund ($11M) and Rutta ($5M). This trade is costing them $26M in cash over the next 4 years.

        If they had simply retained 50% on Karlsson, that would have cost them $19.5M over the next 4 years. So this trade is NOT saving them money.

        Here's the other thing: what would the return have been if they had offered to retain 50%? I would think it would be significantly higher in terms of picks & prospects.

        Yes they do free up more cap space in year 3 and 4 doing it this way, but with the cap set to rise significantly and SJS not poised to come out of their rebuild any time soon, is this really any use to them?

        I don't see any way to couch this as a successful manoeuvr by Grier.
        Ennis liked this.
        Aug. 6, 2023 at 4:10 p.m.
        #55
        JimmyPaek
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        Quoting: CD282
        Did they though?

        Karlsson is owed $39M over the next 4 years. San Jose retained 13%, or $5M. They took back 3 players: Hoffman ($5M), Granlund ($11M) and Rutta ($5M). This trade is costing them $26M in cash over the next 4 years.

        If they had simply retained 50% on Karlsson, that would have cost them $19.5M over the next 4 years. So this trade is NOT saving them money.

        Here's the other thing: what would the return have been if they had offered to retain 50%? I would think it would be significantly higher in terms of picks & prospects.

        Yes they do free up more cap space in year 3 and 4 doing it this way, but with the cap set to rise significantly and SJS not poised to come out of their rebuild any time soon, is this really any use to them?

        I don't see any way to couch this as a successful manoeuvr by Grier.


        Hoffman is off the books next year. Rutta gets traded either at the TDL or next offseason. That leaves them with only Granlund. They’re playing long ball. Our first in 2024 probably ends up around 18-22. They’ll probably get a useful player.
        Aug. 6, 2023 at 4:11 p.m.
        #56
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        Quoting: edeangel84
        Hoffman is off the books next year. Rutta gets traded either at the TDL or next offseason. That leaves them with only Granlund. They’re playing long ball. Our first in 2024 probably ends up around 18-22. They’ll probably get a useful player.


        That first will take 2-3 years before the player is even ready to start making an impact. Big deal. Grasping at straws here. You gave up nothing
        CD282 liked this.
        Aug. 6, 2023 at 4:20 p.m.
        #57
        JimmyPaek
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        Quoting: Ennis
        That first will take 2-3 years before the player is even ready to start making an impact. Big deal. Grasping at straws here. You gave up nothing


        Who cares? SJ is a rebuilding team. They have 2-3 years. We have two prospects worth anything in our whole system. That pick would have been the 3rd.
        Aug. 6, 2023 at 4:22 p.m.
        #58
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        Quoting: edeangel84
        Who cares? SJ is a rebuilding team. They have 2-3 years. We have two prospects worth anything in our whole system. That pick would have been the 3rd.


        That's the case for most contending teams with no prospects lmao, at least you have two. Who cares if you gave up a mid/late first in this weaker class lol. Still grasping at straws.
        Aug. 6, 2023 at 4:27 p.m.
        #59
        JimmyPaek
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        Quoting: Ennis
        That's the case for most contending teams with no prospects lmao, at least you have two. Who cares if you gave up a mid/late first in this weaker class lol. Still grasping at straws.


        We aren’t a contending team though. That’s the entire point.
        Aug. 6, 2023 at 4:36 p.m.
        #60
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        Quoting: edeangel84
        We aren’t a contending team though. That’s the entire point.


        You are as long as Geno, Guentzel, Letang, and Sid are on the team.
        Aug. 6, 2023 at 4:43 p.m.
        #61
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        Quoting: edeangel84
        Hoffman is off the books next year.

        That's accounted for. Irrespective of the length of the contract, it's money spent that didn't have to be.

        Quoting: edeangel84
        Rutta gets traded either at the TDL or next offseason.

        Rutta has 2 more years left, he's unlikely to be traded at the deadline. GM's rarely want term attached, they're looking for rentals.

        If they move him in the offseason they'll save $2.5M (unless they take another player back), that doesn't bridge the gap between $19.5M and $26M.

        Quoting: edeangel84
        That leaves them with only Granlund. They’re playing long ball. Our first in 2024 probably ends up around 18-22. They’ll probably get a useful player.

        Eventually. But they could have got that AND MORE AND saved themselves millions of dollars if they had simply retained 50%.
        Aug. 6, 2023 at 5:20 p.m.
        #62
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        Quoting: Ennis
        My comment on them taking back Petry was in the event that they decide to keep him for a year then flip him when he's expiring. Which, In my humble opinion, would suck considering they have all of that talent on the back end who should be playing instead. I also heard Petry was traded from MTL originally because he wanted out? I dunno if that's what happened but that's why I was confused.

        If they can find a suitor to take Petry before the season starts, it's a win.


        Petry wanted to be closer to family due time the Canadian boarder restrictions during covid. So yes he requested a trade but not cause "he wanted out" but to be able to move freely between family members houses. He was tired of having to quarantine every time he went to or from the states.
        Just_A_Guess liked this.
        Aug. 6, 2023 at 8:46 p.m.
        #63
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        Big W's for MTL & PIT, Huge L for SJS imo. I wouldn't even be trying to trade Petry personally, not this year anyway. One of the goalies should be on the way out though.
         
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