Justin Barron 21 yo 6'2 RHD 4 goals 11 assists in 39 games
Dylan Holloway 21 yo 6'1 LW 3 goals 6 assits in 51 games

why are we taking a cap dump and paying a 2nd rounder and a servicable 4th line center to get a less developed prospect?

I wouldn't trade Barron 1 for 1 for holloway unless holloway takes a step this year

Honestly haven't been impressed with Barron offensive upside but a lot of eye rolling defensive decision making. If oiler fans would do that 1 for 1 I'd be down.

The oilers don’t need more offensive D and they do need inexpensive middle 6 forwards so to get rid of Holloway would be silly. We haven’t really been able to see Holloway’s full upside. Last year in the few games before he got injured when he played with McDavid he looked like a potentially a top 6 winger. I don’t know if he will become a top 6 winger but to trade him away while he is still on his ELC for another offensive defenceman would be silly.

Foegele > Evans + 2nd.

Holloway has been hampered by injuries, I think we'll see more from him this year.

This trade is probably fair value but doesn't help Edmonton's defense while making their offense markedly worse, so they likely decline.

Not with his contract. I prefer Evans at 1.7 than foegle at 2.7. I wouldn't give a 2nd or evans for foegle 1v1

And that's why you aren't an NHL GM.

Foegele v Evans

Foegele scores at 1st line rates while being paid like a 3rd liner. Foegele is worth more than his contract.
Evans scores at 4th line rates while being paid like a 3rd liner. Evans is worth less than his contract,

Edmonton isn't going to take a massive downgrade to their bottom-6 for a 2nd.

What? Foegle has never put up 30 points in a seson in his nhl career. Not even close to 2nd line numbers ever. The guy is a 3rd liner being paid uper tier 3rd line money

Evans is paid upper tier 4th line money while producing 19-29 points a year

Scoring rates are different from total points. Total points are somewhat dependent on things like ice time and power play opportunities, so the cleanest way to compare players across the league is by leveling the playing field. That's why P/60 at 5v5 is useful, it takes special teams out of the equation and tells how well a player is producing with the time he is given.

Of course, small sample sizes can give false readings. The following link shows all forwards with 500+ minutes at 5v5 in the league, which gives us pretty much exactly 12 per team. This way we're able to isolate the top 96 and call it "1st line scoring rates", and 97-192 "2nd line scoring rates" and so on. If you look carefully, you'll see that Warren Foegele is within the top 96, tied with John Tavares, hence "1st line scoring rate".

All forwards, 5v5 P/60

It gives you an idea of how valuable Foegele is to the Oilers. Especially when you sort by ixG/60 or Takeaways/60 or iHDCF/60.