Lot of debate for the past couple months regarding Monahan's trade value if MTL decides to trade him. Many think he's not worth more than a 2nd, some believe he's worth a 1st + a top prospect.
The first thing to get out of the way is if MTL will trade him to begin with. Although I believe it would be best to trade him, I think there's a high probability that Kent Hughes signs him to an extension. It will all depend on the asking price, but so far Hughes' strengths as a GM has been contract negotiations. MTL will be looking "to start" competing in a year or two, and veteran players like Monahan will be the type of player the Habs will still need to complement their younger core players.
Now if Monahan gets traded, the closest comparable I can find (in terms of player age, production, position, similar style of play, and cap hit) is the 2018 STL-WIN trade for Paul Stastny. Stastny was 31 at the time of the trade (Monahan is 29), Stastny had 53 pts that season (Monahan is currently on pace for 52pts), both play a 2-way game as Centers. Stastny cap hit after retention was $3.5mil aav (Monahan's cap will be $2mil aav or less depending on retention). Stastny was traded for a 1st rd pick and what essentially became a 4th rd pick.
Another comparable is the Andrew Copp trade between WIN-NYR in 2022. Copp was 27 at the time of the trade (Monahan is 29), and again production, style of play, and cap hit, etc. is similar. The value of the trade, at first, was Copp + 6th rd pick for Morgan Barron + 5th rd pick + two conditional 2nd rd picks (with one of the 2nds becoming a 1st due to NYR winning two playoff rounds).
I think there will be a lot of factors that will determine Monahan's value (primary thing is that he keeps up his current production and level of play, second will be the trade market for a center), and I believe if he's traded, his return will be much closer to Stastny's 2018 trade value rather than 2022 Copps trade value. And if a 1st rd pick isn't included, I have no doubt that it will be something like a 2nd rd pick (maybe with a condition to become a 1st depending on the prospect included) + a solid prospect.
Well, there are teams in a playoff spot operating with sub 20% PPs (WIN, PHI, WSH, FLA). I agree some of those teams probably don't move a 1st for Monahan, but I did say in the description that a 2nd rd pick (maybe with a condition of becoming a 1st depending on the prospect included) + a solid prospect is definitely viable. Come to think of it, Cheveldayoff in WIN has a history of going after Centers at the deadline. Could be an option.
I could see a conditional pick but it would likely be a 3rd and a prospect with the 3rd becoming a 2nd if the team makes it to X round and a 1st if they make it to X round and Monahan plays >70% of the games.
I feel like a lot of fans forget one thing about those comparison, salary. Why would Monahan fetch anything close to what the others brought? Cause he's paid about 29% of what Stastny was at the time of trade and 60% of Copp. He obviously isn't a comparable when it comes to health but who cares if you're taking him for -at most- 30 games? Health clauses have already been seen (Upgrades to X is player Y plays 50% of playoff games) so I don't really see where a GM would be unwilling to part ways with a good prospect and a highly conditioned pick.
Pretty sure Montreal is looking for picks to keep acquiring young players they have on their shortlist (The newest rumored being Berggren).
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