Monahan vs Lindholm

Forums/Armchair-GM

First2

Page 2 of 2

Created by: jonh514

Team: 2023-24 Montreal Canadiens

Initial Creation Date: Jan. 30, 2024

Published: Jan. 30, 2024

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

This is an open dialog to the fans here. I know it is a commonly held belief that Lindholm is "better" and "significantly better" than Monahan. I am not saying that this is not true, but when I look at the production this year vs the opportunities given to each player both 5-on-5 and on the PP, I will say that Monahan has been better than Lindholm or at least more opportunistic.

Now I will start my perspective by granting that, Sean Monahan has an injury history that is scary, and that lowers his trade value. It's 100% granted, I am not arguing about it, Lindholm is healthier than Monahan. Done!

But let's have a conversation comparing 2 players as though they were both 100% healthy. Why is Lindholm a "significantly better" player than Monahan when they are both healthy?

Lindholm has 0.86 goals per 60 and 9 goals on an expected goals of 14.54
Monahan has 0.92 goals per 60 and 13 goals on an expected goals of 13.89

Their faceoff percentages are 55.5 for Lindholm and 55 for Monahan (both fairly elite)
Monahan has the edge in goals 13 to 9
Monahan has the edge in points 35 to 32
Lindholm has spent 47% of his shifts with Sharangovich & Huberdeau and another 47% of his shifts with Sharangovich and Mangiapane
Monahan has spent 48% of his shifts with Evans & Anderson and 46% of his shifts with Pearson & Gallagher

If I asked you straight out without mentioning names if you think a player should have better production with Huberdeau, Sharangovich, and Mangiapane vs. Pearson, Gallagher, Anderson, and Evans... wouldn't you expect more from the player in Calgary based on the quality of linemates?

Can someone please tell me why Lindholm is better than Monahan in 2023-24?

Trades

Retained Salary Transactions

Joel Edmundson: $1,750,000 (50%)
Jeff Petry: $2,343,750 (50%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2024
2025
2026

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
22	$83,500,000	$79,050,416	$1,170,000	$3,977,500	$4,449,584

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Caufield, Cole $7,850,000$7,850,000 LW, RW UFA - 8	Suzuki, Nick $7,875,000$7,875,000 C UFA - 7	Gallagher, Brendan $6,500,000$6,500,000 RW, LW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 4
Pearson, Tanner $3,250,000$3,250,000 LW UFA - 1		Anderson, Josh $5,500,000$5,500,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 4
Harvey-Pinard, Rafaël $1,100,000$1,100,000 LW, RW RFA - 2	Evans, Jake $1,700,000$1,700,000 C UFA - 2	Armia, Joel $3,400,000$3,400,000 RW, LW UFA - 2
Pezzetta, Michael $812,500$812,500 LW, RW UFA - 2	Lindholm, Elias $4,850,000$4,850,000 C, RW UFA - 1	Slafkovsky, Juraj $950,000$950,000 ($3,500,000$4M) RW, LW RFA - 2
		Ylönen, Jesse $775,000$775,000 RW, LW RFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Matheson, Michael $4,875,000$4,875,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 3	Savard, David $3,500,000$3,500,000 RD UFA - 2	Allen, Jake $1,925,000$1,925,000 G M-NTC UFA - 2
Harris, Jordan $1,400,000$1,400,000 LD/RD RFA - 2	Kovacevic, Johnathan $766,667$766,667 RD UFA - 2	Montembeault, Samuel $1,000,000$1,000,000 G UFA - 1
Struble, Jayden $867,500$867,500 ($57,500$58K) LD RFA - 2		Primeau, Cayden $890,000$890,000 G RFA - 2
Guhle, Kaiden $863,333$863,333 ($420,000$420K) LD/RD RFA - 2
Xhekaj, Arber $828,333$828,333 LD/RD RFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
	Dvorak, Christian $4,450,000$4,450,000 C M-NTC UFA - 2	Price, Carey $10,500,000$10,500,000 G NMC UFA - 3
	Dach, Kirby $3,362,500$3,362,500 C, RW RFA - 3
	Newhook, Alex $2,900,000$2,900,000 C, LW RFA - 4
	Wideman, Chris $762,500$762,500 RD UFA - 1

Jan. 30 at 6:16 p.m.

#26

Windjammer

Joined: Jul. 2020

Posts: 16,203

Likes: 7,210

Quoting: jonh514

Actually guys - I've been looking into the theory that Lindholm is better defensively than Monahan, and in 2023-24 it's simply not the case.

Shots blocked by player Lindholm has the edge at 40 to Monahan's 24
Takeaways Lindholm has the edge with 28 to Monahan's 24
Giveaways Monahan has the edge with 24 to Lindholm's 25
They have identical Corsi numbers (50%)
They have identical Fenwick numbers (51%)
Monahan has a positive on ice goals percentage of 54%, while Lindholm has a negative on ice goals percentage at 47%

I dunno... especially when you look at the linemates, I don't agree that Lindholm is better defensively than Monahan this year. Monahan is better offensively & defensively in 2023-24.

Again for me, I'll take the large body of work over the small sample size. Monahan has been consistently bad defensively for too long to risk taking a chance on. 40 games playing over his head doesn't change that.

Especially when you factor in the asking price. I'd just stick with the more proven commodity.

jonh514 and Leafsfan98 liked this.

Jan. 30 at 6:19 p.m.

#27

jonh514

Thread Starter

HuGo is a Boss GM

Joined: Dec. 2021

Posts: 7,174

Likes: 3,133

Quoting: Windjammer

Fair! I don't know that I can disagree with that, but there is NO WAY I'm signing Lindholm to a 6-8 year extension at PLD money with this level of decline in 1 year.

Jan. 30 at 6:22 p.m.

#28

jonh514

Thread Starter

HuGo is a Boss GM

Joined: Dec. 2021

Posts: 7,174

Likes: 3,133

Quoting: Windjammer

How are you evaluating that Monahan was "bad defensively" in 2021-22 and 2022-23 please? The numbers I am looking at DO NOT support that. In fact his offensive numbers until he got injured are even better in 2022-23 & his defensive numbers are incredible in 2021-22.

Jan. 30 at 7:03 p.m.

#29

Leafsfan98

Leafs going to Leafs

Joined: Dec. 2022

Posts: 10,191

Likes: 3,093

Quoting: jonh514

EDIT:

I take your meaning on getting a better overall defensive player, and I don't buy the fact that Lindholm is a better defensive player (prove it to me)!

As relates to comparing Monahan to Domi:

Domi has 0.58 goals per 60 and 4 goals on an expected goals of 5.84
Monahan has 0.92 goals per 60 and 13 goals on an expected goals of 13.89

Their faceoff percentages are 52.1 for Domi and 55 for Monahan (both fairly good, though Monahan is clearly better)
Monahan has the edge in goals 13 to 4
Monahan has the edge in points 35 to 24
Domi has played 54% of his shifts with Robertson & Jarnkrok (not sure who else he plays with)
Monahan has spent 48% of his shifts with Evans & Anderson and 46% of his shifts with Pearson & Gallagher

I would say one of the biggest differences between them is that Monahan takes a lot of shots from high & medium danger scoring lanes and Domi is more of a perimeter player. So I guess get Monahan to get a MOAR BIGGER 3rd liner who can win faceoffs and who will go to the dirty areas?

My stat is the eye test tbh... Lindholm looks better defensively

And even strength, Domi is close to Monahan despite one being a 2C and the other being a 3C

Domi played the majority of the season with Kampf and Knies... And has always been pass first, even in scoring areas with a career low shooting %

But again, I'd rather pay for the upgrade of Domi to Lindholm than the difference for Monahan... I get you may not be convinced on eye test, but it's there

Jan. 30 at 7:18 p.m.

#30

jonh514

Thread Starter

HuGo is a Boss GM

Joined: Dec. 2021

Posts: 7,174

Likes: 3,133

Quoting: Leafsfan98

I like the eye test, but these numbers show that in 2023-24 Monahan is better than Lindholm & Domi both offensively & defensively.

I get Windjammer's argument about the entire body of work, but some lucky team is gonna luck out getting Monahan for a song after Lindholm moves for a mint.

Jan. 30 at 8:25 p.m.

#31

Windjammer

Joined: Jul. 2020

Posts: 16,203

Likes: 7,210

Quoting: jonh514

Fair! I don't know that I can disagree with that, but there is NO WAY I'm signing Lindholm to a 6-8 year extension at PLD money with this level of decline in 1 year.

No, I agree. I would want a 3 or 4 year extension max. But that may knock the Jets or of the running.

Jan. 30 at 8:28 p.m.

#32

Windjammer

Joined: Jul. 2020

Posts: 16,203

Likes: 7,210

Quoting: jonh514

I am relying on the numbers I saw at HFB. As I said though, I don't remember the exact advanced stats they were. Just that they made sense when I saw then.

Jan. 30 at 10:12 p.m.

#33

dannibalcorpse

we miss leo k

Joined: Feb. 2018

Posts: 6,014

Likes: 5,131

There is some credence to the idea that Lindholm has been better defensively than Monahan when you look at the 5v5 numbers:

-The Flames have had 47.1% of the chances and 49% of the shots at 5v5 with Lindholm on the ice. He's actually been a little unlucky, with a 9.15 on-ice shooting % and a .897 on-ice save percentage averaging up to a 98.8 PDO. He's been hurt most by more of the high danger chances going against Calgary rather than for them - at 5v5, his lines are getting 45.5% of the high danger chances but only 39.3% of the goals - something you think would eventually stabilize. He also had huge possession numbers in Sutter's system so he's got a very recent track record of success.

-The Habs at 5v5 are getting 44.9% of the chances and 45.7% of the shots with Monahan on the ice. He's getting very lucky goaltending behind him - the Habs have outscored their opponents 27-26 in his time on ice despite the fact that they're xGF-xGA in that time is 27.6 - 33.52. Overall, the Canadiens are shooting 9.75% with him on the ice and getting a .921(!!) SV%, good for a PDO of 101.8. Almost the inverse of Lindholm here: Montreal's only getting 46.1% of the high danger chances with Monahan but scoring 52.8% of the high danger goals. And while quality of linemates definitely doesn't help him, I think it's also worth noting that in 2020-21 & 2021-22 they were playing in the same system and Lindholm's was much better at both creating and suppressing chances when you look at the possession numbers.

Leafsfan98 and jonh514 liked this.

Jan. 30 at 11:18 p.m.

#34

Leafsfan98

Leafs going to Leafs

Joined: Dec. 2022

Posts: 10,191

Likes: 3,093

Quoting: jonh514

I don't use Fenwick and Cross tbh... Stupid stat IMO

And the eye test says Lindholm IMO

Jan. 30 at 11:21 p.m.

#35

Leafsfan98

Leafs going to Leafs

Joined: Dec. 2022

Posts: 10,191

Likes: 3,093

Quoting: jonh514

I prioritize SB and Takeaways to giveaways which Monahan is worse defensively than Lindholm and eye test says I'd rather Domi offensively, he's just been super unlucky, but he's also a rat...

I don't think either are worth what their fans are asking for them

If you want a true analysis, please talk with @dannibalcorpse as he is much better with this than I am

But still fun discussing different topics w you

jonh514 liked this.

Jan. 31 at 4:28 a.m.

#36

jonh514

Thread Starter

HuGo is a Boss GM

Joined: Dec. 2021

Posts: 7,174

Likes: 3,133

Quoting: dannibalcorpse

Thanks for sharing your perspective and making an argument that is evidence-based!

I agree Lindholm has been unlucky offensively and Monahan has been both lucky and opportunistic at both ends of the ice.

Would you pay 2x the price for Monahan for Lindholm though?

Jan. 31 at 2:33 p.m.

#37

dannibalcorpse

we miss leo k

Joined: Feb. 2018

Posts: 6,014

Likes: 5,131

Quoting: jonh514

i wouldn't be able to justify double, but I'd pay up for Lindholm before Monahan based on the bounceback factor and the recent track record. But I do think it's a lot closer than a lot of folks think - I think there's a good shot someone ponies up a 1st rounder for both of them, I just think that whatever prospect comes along with it will be better in the LIndholm deal than in the Monahan one.

jonh514 liked this.

Feb. 2 at 11:44 a.m.

#38

jonh514

Thread Starter

HuGo is a Boss GM

Joined: Dec. 2021

Posts: 7,174

Likes: 3,133

@windjammer we were both wrong! Monahan DID go to the Jets for a 1st (you predicted this was never gonna happen.)

I said Lindholm would not go for double what Monahan did. I was also wrong.

Weird ol' place the NHL!

If it's any consolation, I think you are very wrong about Monahan being bad at 5-on-5. I have watched him for the last 74 games he played as a Hab, and he's good everywhere.

I predict you love having him on your team and the Jets re-sign him in the offseason.

Windjammer and LIRIK liked this.

Feb. 2 at 11:47 a.m.

#39

Windjammer

Joined: Jul. 2020

Posts: 16,203

Likes: 7,210

Quoting: jonh514

windjammer we were both wrong! Monahan DID go to the Jets for a 1st (you predicted this was never gonna happen.)

I said Lindholm would not go for double what Monahan did. I was also wrong.

Weird ol' place the NHL!

If it's any consolation, I think you are very wrong about Monahan being bad at 5-on-5. I have watched him for the last 74 games he played as a Hab, and he's good everywhere.

I predict you love having him on your team and the Jets re-sign him in the offseason.

I hope you're right John. At least my expectations aren't that high, so he may have a good shot at meeting or exceeding them.

jonh514 liked this.

First2

Page 2 of 2

DISPLAY SETTING

BETTING ODDS

LOCALE

ARCHIVE

CBA

CALCULATORS

FANTASY HOCKEY TOOLS

TOOLS

PLAYERS

WESTERN CONFERENCE

EASTERN CONFERENCE

INTERACTIVE FEATURES

Forums/Armchair-GM