Joined: Jan. 2017
Posts: 331
Likes: 184
If the Rangers stay at the top of the Metro division their 1st will be somewhere between 25 and 32. The Devils pick is currently number 47. Pick 47 is worth 1.7 GSVA and pick 25 is worth 3.4 GSVA per The Athletic's NHL draft pick value chart, so essentially that's the equivalent of giving us a mid-2nd round pick in exchange for everything which is nowhere near the value. With Jack Hughes coming back they have a decent chance of moving from 15th pick in the 2nd round to later but pick 60 would be the worst case scenario and that's only a drop of 0.5 GSVA from pick 47 to 1.2 GSVA, so it doesn't make a drastic difference.
I'm just going to put this scenario out there to show you why this trade could go from bad to laughably bad.
Devils end up as a wild card team and meet the Rangers in the ECF after swapping over to the Atlantic for the divisional rounds.
Rangers win the cup, and the Sharks finish last in the league.
The result is the Sharks moving up from pick 33 to pick 32 and get a 4th in exchange for Duke (likely worth around a 3rd with retention this year, though I hope a bit of a bidding war can push that return up a bit based on his recent playoff history), and Granlund (I'm hoping at the 2025 deadline we can get a 2nd with retention on him, though that depends on his play the rest of this year/next year). In addition, the Sharks are taking on a bad contract that continues for 3 years after this one.
I get that any trade is a gamble and it's mathematically possible the Rangers could finish dead last in the league/win the lottery and the return could be the 1st overall pick, but the 45-50 up to 25ish is the most likely scenario, and that's just bad asset management.