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REALISTIC Saros trade w Buffalo

Created by: AntiAnalytics
Team: 2023-24 Nashville Predators
Initial Creation Date: Feb. 23, 2024
Published: Feb. 23, 2024
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Trades
NSH
  1. Krebs, Peyton
  2. 2024 2nd round pick (BUF)
BUF
    Preds are NOT getting more than this for a goalie having a bad season- goalies don’t get great returns to begin with
    Buyouts
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    DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
    2024
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    2025
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    ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
    24$83,500,000$76,306,699$0$552,500$7,193,301
    Left WingCentreRight Wing
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    $8,500,000$8,500,000
    LW
    NMC
    UFA - 7
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    $4,500,000$4,500,000
    C
    UFA - 4
    Logo of the Nashville Predators
    $850,000$850,000
    RW, LW
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Nashville Predators
    $3,185,000$3,185,000
    LW, RW
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Nashville Predators
    $2,857,143$2,857,143
    C, RW
    UFA - 3
    Logo of the Nashville Predators
    $797,500$797,500 (Performance Bonus$82,500$82K)
    RW
    RFA - 2
    Logo of the Nashville Predators
    $1,700,000$1,700,000
    LW, C
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Nashville Predators
    $2,500,000$2,500,000
    C, RW
    RFA - 2
    Logo of the Nashville Predators
    $775,000$775,000
    RW, C
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Nashville Predators
    $775,000$775,000
    LW, RW
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Nashville Predators
    $800,000$800,000
    C
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Nashville Predators
    $775,000$775,000
    RW, LW
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Nashville Predators
    $789,167$789,167 (Performance Bonus$57,500$58K)
    C, LW
    RFA - 1
    Logo of the Nashville Predators
    $775,000$775,000
    C, LW
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
    $863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$412,500$412K)
    C, LW
    RFA - 1
    Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
    Logo of the Nashville Predators
    $9,059,000$9,059,000
    LD
    NMC
    UFA - 5
    Logo of the Nashville Predators
    $4,500,000$4,500,000
    RD
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Nashville Predators
    $5,000,000$5,000,000
    G
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Nashville Predators
    $6,750,000$6,750,000
    LD
    NTC
    UFA - 3
    Logo of the Nashville Predators
    $2,750,000$2,750,000
    RD
    UFA - 3
    Logo of the Nashville Predators
    $2,000,000$2,000,000
    G
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Nashville Predators
    $2,000,000$2,000,000
    LD/RD
    UFA - 3
    Logo of the Nashville Predators
    $2,500,000$2,500,000
    RD
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Nashville Predators
    $2,500,000$2,500,000
    RD
    UFA - 1

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    Feb. 23 at 4:09 p.m.
    #26
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    Quoting: Leafsleaks123
    I understand what you're saying but he's been a top 5 goalie like 4 years in a row before this year and is on a fantastic contract. Definately a lot more likely he bounces back then just randomly falls off a cliff at 28


    1- that’s a risky GUESS you’re making
    2- especially when he’s due a big contract after next season
    Feb. 23 at 4:09 p.m.
    #27
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    Not even close. and thats fine. I like having both goalies.
    nativewulf liked this.
    Feb. 23 at 4:10 p.m.
    #28
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    Quoting: AntiAnalytics
    Well that’s an emotional “homer” take if I’ve ever heard one
    No one- NO ONE- is gonna give up the farm for a goalie,
    let alone one having a down season
    Not happening, sorry


    Never said I wasn't a homer. But everything I said was true.

    I never once said any team would give up the farm or even make the trade, just that it's not impossible simply because it's never happened before. The Preds have their asking price and it's up to the other teams to meet it if they want Saros.
    Feb. 23 at 4:10 p.m.
    #29
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    Quoting: fangm
    Saros isn't being traded.

    Nashville wants to charge like he's a top 3 goalie in the league.

    He's been a bottom 5 goalie this year. No team is paying that price when they don't know what they are getting.


    Saros hasn’t been close to a bottom 5 goalie this season. Korpisalo, Vanecek, Gustavsson, Fleury, Samsonov, Vasilevskiy, Oettinger, Georgiev, Merzlikins are just some goalies that have been worse than Saros this year
    nativewulf liked this.
    Feb. 23 at 4:11 p.m.
    #30
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    Quoting: Nash
    Not even close. and thats fine. I like having both goalies.


    My point was NEVER that u guys SHOULD trade him
    It was that your ask was absurd & unrealistic
    Feb. 23 at 4:11 p.m.
    #31
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    Quoting: AntiAnalytics
    And yet still a step down from what he normally is


    It was literally the best season of his career
    Feb. 23 at 4:12 p.m.
    #32
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    Quoting: nativewulf
    Never said I wasn't a homer. But everything I said was true.

    I never once said any team would give up the farm or even make the trade, just that it's not impossible simply because it's never happened before. The Preds have their asking price and it's up to the other teams to meet it if they want Saros.


    No, everything u said wasn’t “true”
    It was your OPINION

    I’m sorry if u don’t realize the difference,
    but there is one
    Feb. 23 at 4:13 p.m.
    #33
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    Quoting: mv21227
    It was literally the best season of his career


    Better than the year before when he finished higher in Vezina voting
    And better than the year before that when he set his career high for save%

    Hmmmmmm…..
    Feb. 23 at 4:15 p.m.
    #34
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    Quoting: AntiAnalytics
    No, everything u said wasn’t “true”
    It was your OPINION

    I’m sorry if u don’t realize the difference,
    but there is one


    The only part that was my opinion was him being a top 6 goalie in the league which may not objectively be true this year, but would be a common opinion among a number of people including the 32 GMs of the NHL
    Feb. 23 at 4:17 p.m.
    #35
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    Quoting: nativewulf
    The only part that was my opinion was him being a top 6 goalie in the league which may not objectively be true this year, but would be a common opinion among a number of people including the 32 GMs of the NHL


    Lol, now you’re giving your opinion about your GUESS on what 32 GMs would think

    Just digger yourself deeper & deeper, with little to no “truth”
    Feb. 23 at 4:17 p.m.
    #36
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    Quoting: AntiAnalytics
    Better than the year before when he finished higher in Vezina voting
    And better than the year before that when he set his career high for save%

    Hmmmmmm…..


    20/21: 20.51 GSAA, 7.75 GSAx, .927 SV%
    21/22: 21.43 GSAA, 12.6 GSAx, .918 SV%
    22/23: 29.4 GSAA, 45.49 GSAx, .919 SV%

    Yes, last season was definitely the best year of his career
    Feb. 23 at 4:18 p.m.
    #37
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    Quoting: Leafsleaks123
    I understand what you're saying but he's been a top 5 goalie like 4 years in a row before this year and is on a fantastic contract. Definately a lot more likely he bounces back then just randomly falls off a cliff at 28


    If it was any other position I'd agree, but nobody is taking this risk on a goalie. Jones just feel off at 28 after being an all-star goalie for years, Murray did the same at 26, Campbell did it at 30, It's just a desperate risk to take.
    AntiAnalytics liked this.
    Feb. 23 at 4:19 p.m.
    #38
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    Quoting: mv21227
    20/21: 20.51 GSAA, 7.75 GSAx, .927 SV%
    21/22: 21.43 GSAA, 12.6 GSAx, .918 SV%
    22/23: 29.4 GSAA, 45.49 GSAx, .919 SV%

    Yes, last season was definitely the best year of his career


    By some metrics, and by some it was not
    U seem to be confusing fact with your opinion
    Feb. 23 at 4:22 p.m.
    #39
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    Quoting: AntiAnalytics
    By some metrics, and by some it was not
    U seem to be confusing fact with your opinion


    By what metrics was it not? It was his best season statistically, especially in GSAx where he had a historically great season. Yes his SV% was a bit worse than 20/21 but GP is also a factor there
    Feb. 23 at 4:24 p.m.
    #40
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    Quoting: AntiAnalytics
    Lol, now you’re giving your opinion about your GUESS on what 32 GMs would think

    Just digger yourself deeper & deeper, with little to no “truth”


    I don't have to guess. GUESS who votes on the Vezina trophy? 32 NHL GMs. And Saros was 4th last year. So even in a down year I doubt their opinion of him has fallen that much.

    I've given you truth. You just don't want to admit that both of our opinions have merit.
    Feb. 23 at 4:24 p.m.
    #41
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    Quoting: mv21227
    Saros hasn’t been close to a bottom 5 goalie this season. Korpisalo, Vanecek, Gustavsson, Fleury, Samsonov, Vasilevskiy, Oettinger, Georgiev, Merzlikins are just some goalies that have been worse than Saros this year


    By Goals Saves above Expected the only starting goalies worse than him this year are Samsonov, Korpisalo, Vanecek, Gustavsson.
    AntiAnalytics liked this.
    Feb. 23 at 4:25 p.m.
    #42
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    Quoting: mv21227
    By what metrics was it not? It was his best season statistically, especially in GSAx where he had a historically great season. Yes his SV% was a bit worse than 20/21 but GP is also a factor there


    U literally answered your own question there pal
    It’s ok to calm down & take a breath before u respond
    Feb. 23 at 4:26 p.m.
    #43
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    Quoting: fangm
    By Goals Saves above Expected the only starting goalies worse than him this year are Samsonov, Korpisalo, Vanecek, Gustavsson.


    Uh oh @mv21227…..
    look at that, MORE stats that don’t support your OPINION
    Feb. 23 at 4:27 p.m.
    #44
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    Quoting: nativewulf
    I don't have to guess. GUESS who votes on the Vezina trophy? 32 NHL GMs. And Saros was 4th last year. So even in a down year I doubt their opinion of him has fallen that much.

    I've given you truth. You just don't want to admit that both of our opinions have merit.


    Fluery went from winning the Vezina to falling out of the top 10 in voting the next year. Even if you assume he fell from 1 to 11, not a stretch to say in a year that that Saros could fall from 4 to 15 and suddenly he's not worth more than a 2nd.
    AntiAnalytics liked this.
    Feb. 23 at 4:28 p.m.
    #45
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    Quoting: fangm
    By Goals Saves above Expected the only starting goalies worse than him this year are Samsonov, Korpisalo, Vanecek, Gustavsson.


    He ranks 31st out of 87 goalies in GSAx this season. Among goalies with 25+ GP he’s ahead of Thompson, Merzlikins, Georgiev, Kuemper, Kochetkov, Hart, Dostal, Oettinger, Vasilevskiy, Fleury, Vejmelka, Wedgewood, Samsonov, Gustavsson, Vanecek, and Korpisalo
    Feb. 23 at 4:29 p.m.
    #46
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    Quoting: AntiAnalytics
    Uh oh mv21227…..
    look at that, MORE stats that don’t support your OPINION


    Except he’s actually 31st out of 87 goalies in GSAx this season, and among goalies with 25+ GP he’s ahead of Thompson, Merzlikins, Georgiev, Kuemper, Kochetkov, Hart, Dostal, Oettinger, Vasilevskiy, Fleury, Vejmelka, Wedgewood, Samsonov, Gustavsson, Vanecek, and Korpisalo
    Feb. 23 at 4:30 p.m.
    #47
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    Quoting: mv21227
    He ranks 31st out of 87 goalies in GSAx this season. Among goalies with 25+ GP he’s ahead of Thompson, Merzlikins, Georgiev, Kuemper, Kochetkov, Hart, Dostal, Oettinger, Vasilevskiy, Fleury, Vejmelka, Wedgewood, Samsonov, Gustavsson, Vanecek, and Korpisalo


    Might just be me….
    but ranking “31st” sure doesn’t sound too elite to me
    Feb. 23 at 4:32 p.m.
    #48
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    Quoting: mv21227
    Except he’s actually 31st out of 87 goalies in GSAx this season, and among goalies with 25+ GP he’s ahead of Thompson, Merzlikins, Georgiev, Kuemper, Kochetkov, Hart, Dostal, Oettinger, Vasilevskiy, Fleury, Vejmelka, Wedgewood, Samsonov, Gustavsson, Vanecek, and Korpisalo


    And he’s BEHIND how many?
    Oh yeah, THIRTY

    Hmmmmmmm….?
    Feb. 23 at 4:34 p.m.
    #49
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    Quoting: AntiAnalytics
    Might just be me….
    but ranking “31st” sure doesn’t sound too elite to me


    We’ve been clear that this has been a down season for Saros. But one down season doesn’t mean he’s not elite anymore.

    For example, since you’re a Buffalo fan I’ll use their players, do the down seasons Thompson and Cozens are having mean their values have crashed to a 2nd round pick and a 4th line player, and that they’ll never bounce back to what they did last season?
    Feb. 23 at 4:34 p.m.
    #50
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    Quoting: fangm
    Fluery went from winning the Vezina to falling out of the top 10 in voting the next year. Even if you assume he fell from 1 to 11, not a stretch to say in a year that that Saros could fall from 4 to 15 and suddenly he's not worth more than a 2nd.


    This isn’t about his trade value for me. I could care less what a team is willing to trade for him. This is about him being a top 6 goalie in the league. I won’t deny he’s having a down year, but he is viewed around the league as at least a top 10 goalie. Not analytically this year I’ll admit that. But positionally I’d struggle to find 6 or 10 guys better than Juuse Saros, that I’d rather have going into next season
     
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