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50Leafs 2023 2024 Season Discussion Part 5 - TDL additions (Go Big or Go Small)

Mar. 24 at 8:54 p.m.
#1226
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Quoting: fangm
Matthews hate isn't warranted but he definitely just doesn't show up to 20/30 games a year. Sheldon has pretty much admitted as much.


And when he dont show up you notice it.
Mar. 24 at 8:54 p.m.
#1227
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Quoting: fangm
He had a similar % of the cap.


If Marner was put on the third line it would be a way bigger deal than 6.8m Kessel
Mar. 24 at 8:54 p.m.
#1228
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Quoting: Messier99
PP + PK should be >= 100% (maybe 105% for a better team).
Today (CAR) = 67% (L)
(EDM) = 93% (W)
(WAS) = 80% (W)
(PHI) = 133% (L)
(CAR) = 60% (L)
(PHI) = 67% (W)
(MTL) = 80% (W)
(BOS) = 85% (L)
(BUF) = 100% (W)
(BOS) = 50% (L)

So in past 10 games, Leafs are 5 Wins, 5 Losses. But in terms of the special teams battle, Leafs are 1 Win, 1 Tie, 8 Losses.
It's another example of making life harder for themselves.
I thought PK was biggest problem heading into the deadline, and result show they didn't address it.


A lot of this is on Keefe.

Idk who else here has played at a high level but it's very apparent to me that they have horrible systems. On the PK and PP.
Mar. 24 at 8:54 p.m.
#1229
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Quoting: Messier99
PP + PK should be >= 100% (maybe 105% for a better team).
Today (CAR) = 67% (L)
(EDM) = 93% (W)
(WAS) = 80% (W)
(PHI) = 133% (L)
(CAR) = 60% (L)
(PHI) = 67% (W)
(MTL) = 80% (W)
(BOS) = 85% (L)
(BUF) = 100% (W)
(BOS) = 50% (L)

So in past 10 games, Leafs are 5 Wins, 5 Losses. But in terms of the special teams battle, Leafs are 1 Win, 1 Tie, 8 Losses.
It's another example of making life harder for themselves.
I thought PK was biggest problem heading into the deadline, and result show they didn't address it.


And just in time for playoffs lul

Tradition lives on

But in this case it makes 0 sense due to our PK coach being Dean Chynoweth
Mar. 24 at 8:55 p.m.
#1230
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Edited Mar. 24 at 9:02 p.m.
Quoting: fangm
A lot of this is on Keefe.

Idk who else here has played at a high level but it's very apparent to me that they have horrible systems. On the PK and PP.


Keefe is not in charge of special teams. You have assistant coaches for a reason

Keefe is not in charge of the PP and PK

The guys in charge of those are Guy Boucher and Dean Chynoweth

His job is to go to those guys and go okay why this not working. Basically what help do you need to get these guys going

We saw it in the Amazon series when he and the goaltending coach argued


Leafs PK issues make no sense as Dean Chynoweth was CAR PK coach for a long time
Mar. 24 at 8:56 p.m.
#1231
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Quoting: aadoyle
If Marner was put on the third line it would be a way bigger deal than 6.8m Kessel


I don't think so. Most people have been calling for them to split the 3 up for a long time.

Keefe started the year with Willy on the 3rd line.

Marner has also struggled a lot in the playoffs at 5v5 so there is some logic to playing him against lesser opposition. They did it with Rielly last year and it made him look like a star.
Mar. 24 at 8:57 p.m.
#1232
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Quoting: fangm
I don't think so. Most people have been calling for them to split the 3 up for a long time.

Keefe started the year with Willy on the 3rd line.

Marner has also struggled a lot in the playoffs at 5v5 so there is some logic to playing him against lesser opposition. They did it with Rielly last year and it made him look like a star.


Trust me it would u dont put a guy almost making 11m down there. Its not a good look

U can put Domi down there its fine but Marner people will notice it fast and he will not be happy
Mar. 24 at 9:02 p.m.
#1233
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Quoting: aadoyle
Keefe is not in charge of special teams. You have assistant coaches for a reason

Keefe is not in charge of the PP and PK

The guys in charge of those are Guy Boucher and Dean Chynoweth

His job is to go to those guys and go okay why this not working


Leafs PK issues make no sense as Dean Chynoweth was CAR PK coach for a long time


Buck stops with the head coach. It's been bad under him no matter who he has had as his assistants.

We also know he overrules his assistants cause Boucher didn't get to build the PP the way he wanted to. And both Sheldon and Guy has publicly said that.

The PK is horrible they play a 2-1-1 which is absurd and is not at all what Carolina plays or ever played. It's a hyper aggressive PK designed to create scoring chances (hence why he uses Nylander, Marner, Matthews as PK guys regularly).

The best example to me of how bad the PK is was Dewar's first game when he was blamed for a shorthanded goal because he was out of position on the PK. To anyone who has any serious experience coaching or playing they would say Dewar was in the right position because weather you are playing a diamond or a box he was covering a key passing lane. Problem is the leafs play a completely dysfunctional system where they essentially make the coverage calls on the fly which is what led to the goal. Obviously Dewar has adjusted now but when a top PK guy comes in and can't understand your system you know it's messed up.

Lafferty is another example of a guy who was scratched cause he couldn't play Keefe's system then goes to Vancouver and is a top PK guy (as he was before in Chicago).
Mar. 24 at 9:05 p.m.
#1234
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Quoting: aadoyle
Trust me it would u dont put a guy almost making 11m down there. Its not a good look

U can put Domi down there its fine but Marner people will notice it fast and he will not be happy


If he still plays 25mins a might nobody will care.

On average in playoff games there are 4 penalties per team. So that is 8mins of PK and 8 mins of PP. Marner will get 5.5mins of PK and 5.5mins of PP.

If he gets another 9 mins with the third line (which is about 20% of the 5v5 time) plus takes an extra 2 shifts on the first line and 2 shifts on the second line then that is 23-24mins of ice time assuming at no point the bench is shortened.
Mar. 24 at 9:08 p.m.
#1235
Hakuna Matata
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Quoting: fangm
If he still plays 25mins a might nobody will care.

On average in playoff games there are 4 penalties per team. So that is 8mins of PK and 8 mins of PP. Marner will get 5.5mins of PK and 5.5mins of PP.

If he gets another 9 mins with the third line (which is about 20% of the 5v5 time) plus takes an extra 2 shifts on the first line and 2 shifts on the second line then that is 23-24mins of ice time assuming at no point the bench is shortened.


He and the media would care. Its a demotion. Again if u put an 11mill guy down there people will notice. If your gonna try to play him 20+ mins on the third line your gonna be double shifting him which can cause other problems

This is a guy you need for a long playoff run with the other 3. Again his place is top 6 with Matthews or Tavares. 0 need for him to be in the bottom 6
Mar. 24 at 9:11 p.m.
#1236
Hakuna Matata
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Edited Mar. 24 at 9:34 p.m.
Quoting: fangm
Buck stops with the head coach. It's been bad under him no matter who he has had as his assistants.

We also know he overrules his assistants cause Boucher didn't get to build the PP the way he wanted to. And both Sheldon and Guy has publicly said that.

The PK is horrible they play a 2-1-1 which is absurd and is not at all what Carolina plays or ever played. It's a hyper aggressive PK designed to create scoring chances (hence why he uses Nylander, Marner, Matthews as PK guys regularly).

The best example to me of how bad the PK is was Dewar's first game when he was blamed for a shorthanded goal because he was out of position on the PK. To anyone who has any serious experience coaching or playing they would say Dewar was in the right position because weather you are playing a diamond or a box he was covering a key passing lane. Problem is the leafs play a completely dysfunctional system where they essentially make the coverage calls on the fly which is what led to the goal. Obviously Dewar has adjusted now but when a top PK guy comes in and can't understand your system you know it's messed up.

Lafferty is another example of a guy who was scratched cause he couldn't play Keefe's system then goes to Vancouver and is a top PK guy (as he was before in Chicago).


At this point its on Dean to fix it but so far its not been good

Losing Kerfoot and Holl should not result in a PK going from 81.9% to 76%. The system is the exact same as last year and year before

2022: 82.1%
2023 81.9%
2024 76%

Keefe can only pressure him into fixing its up to the assistant to get it going again

And while yes Marner and Jarnkrok are out with injury PK at 76% or 26th in NHL is not good
Mar. 24 at 10:11 p.m.
#1237
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Ovchinnikov 137
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Quoting: aadoyle
At this point its on Dean to fix it but so far its not been good

Losing Kerfoot and Holl should not result in a PK going from 81.9% to 76%. The system is the exact same as last year and year before

2022: 82.1%
2023 81.9%
2024 76%

Keefe can only pressure him into fixing its up to the assistant to get it going again

And while yes Marner and Jarnkrok are out with injury PK at 76% or 26th in NHL is not good


TOI PK 2023
Nylander - 68:03
Gregor - 65:00
Matthews - 53:04
Holmberg - 26:42
Knies - 17:22


TOI PK 2022
Nylander - 18:51
Gregor - 11:01
Matthews - 3:28
Holmberg - 4:40
Knies - 0:00
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Mar. 24 at 11:33 p.m.
#1238
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If a PP is at 20% and a PK is at 80% - that means for every 5 PP's, a goal can be expected. Since a goal is not always scored at the exact end of the PP, maybe it's better to assume that the goal is scored at the 80 second mark. thus, a goal every 400 seconds, or every 6.7 minutes. Per 60 minutes of PP time, expect to score 9 goals (for the unit, not per player).
Does that stat exist? PP goals for (a plus on the PP) per 60 minutes and PK goals against (a minus on the PK) per 60 minutes. Is there some other stat to show which PK'er or PP'er is doing well?
Mar. 24 at 11:48 p.m.
#1239
Hakuna Matata
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Edited Mar. 24 at 11:57 p.m.
Quoting: MatthewsFan
TOI PK 2023
Nylander - 68:03
Gregor - 65:00
Matthews - 53:04
Holmberg - 26:42
Knies - 17:22


TOI PK 2022
Nylander - 18:51
Gregor - 11:01
Matthews - 3:28
Holmberg - 4:40
Knies - 0:00


Yea Nylander having more PK time than the more defensive minded forward on the team makes little sense but is a factor in PK drop as honestly the 1 way nature of him does not suit him for PKing IMO

Matthews should be full time PKing as this man has improved his 2-way game significantly, is good at faceoffs, and last year lead the NHL in blocked shots. Willy's fun but should not be 2nd unit

Honestly surprised Matthews PK TOI number be that high I barely remember seeing him. Still odd one forward leaving results in that big of a drop if anything u would think Matthews getting more would improve it lul

But if not what we all learned is we should have brought Kerfoot back lul
Mar. 25 at 8:47 a.m.
#1240
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Quoting: aadoyle
Nobody played well that game and the thing is Matthews is the best guy so we expect the best as he is gonna be their highest payed player but tonight nobody including him looked good till the final 15 mins of this game

And were getting closer to playoffs and if this continues we can have problems as we have seen him and the others do this there to


We do and he had:
7 shots
9 or more shot attempts
Multiple defensive intercepts
1 assist
4 Blocked Shots

That's not from a lack of effort... Matthews also has 12 points in his last 6 games in a stretch without Marner, Jarnkrok, Bert (at times)... All guys Matthews would normally play with
Mar. 25 at 8:49 a.m.
#1241
Leafs going to Leafs
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Quoting: MatthewsFan
TOI PK 2023
Nylander - 68:03
Gregor - 65:00
Matthews - 53:04
Holmberg - 26:42
Knies - 17:22


TOI PK 2022
Nylander - 18:51
Gregor - 11:01
Matthews - 3:28
Holmberg - 4:40
Knies - 0:00


Matthews should be having more PK time...

And most of these minutes are up from the loss of Kampf, Jarny and Marner to injury
Mar. 25 at 8:50 a.m.
#1242
Leafs going to Leafs
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Quoting: fangm
Matthews hate isn't warranted but he definitely just doesn't show up to 20/30 games a year. Sheldon has pretty much admitted as much.


Make that 10-15 games and I'd agree...

Usually the 2nd game of a b2b w travel
Mar. 25 at 9:26 a.m.
#1243
Amirov Forever
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Mar. 25 at 11:02 a.m.
#1244
Leafs going to Leafs
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@BeterChiarelli Can you lock this thread please? We've moved onto another thread... Thanks
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