That ain’t happening for Smith. 3rd is where we stop it, not adding a prospect as you can’t retain anyways.

With the cap space saved in the Guentzel trade, pens can retain. VGK in back-to-back fever now

Doubt EDM or VGK agree to those deals. Lots of added value going back to PIT.

EDM and VGK are in win now mode. Foegele is purely for cap. Holloway only has 4 points this year, so I think EDM is willing to part with the pieces given, Guentzel could be a 9.5 million dollar player and would be great for McDavid's wing.

VGK-Smith reunion is rumored, I could see VGK paying a bit more for Pens to retain

So I read your first post and tbh I really don't see the Oilers going out and getting Guentzel for 2 reasons.

1st - the cost to give up is just way to much for the Oilers to swallow, now I do get that his cost is bloody high i.e. 2nds and a high end prospect but the oilers don't have the "quality assets" that Pittsburgh may want, Yes I know many Pens fans IF they were trade partners would want Holloway going the other way along with the picks but that is just flat out not happening.

2nd - The Oilers will not be able to resign Guentzel for what he will get in open market so 9.5M to 10M.

Im comparing the offers of the Bo Horvat trade and the Elias Lindholm trade as baselines for the offers

PIT has very little interest in retaining on Smith into next season. If you want them to then the price is certainly going to be steeper than what you have VGK offering here. Smith with no retention for a pick is the likely outcome.

Oil say no anyways

I think the Guent to EDM trades sorta died when he got injured, unless PIT gives him up for a pretty decent discount idk if Holland goes for it.
Also you're including assets EDM wont move for rentals.

Foegele is currently tied with Malkin for 5v5 points this season, despite having played 12% fewer minutes. Why did you think Edmonton would throw him in "purely for cap"?

Foegele most common linemates are McLeod, Draisaitl, and Hopkins. Malkin most common linemates are Smith, O'Connor, and Rakell.

Malkin is Malkin.

Foegele isn't a throw in for cap purposes.

If Smith goes back to Vegas it's for a pick and that's it. Nothing more, no retention by Pittsburgh.

No thanks on Foegele.

Malkin is 37. He is fine on his current cap hit as a 2C, but he is FAR from what he used to be. He can't carry mediocre line mates anymore.

Not true. He and Foegele are top-75 in the NHL for 5v5 scoring. That's 1st line production. Guentzel only has 6 more points, and he plays 90% of his TOI with Crosby.

But if you aren't impressed with Malkin anymore, retain 50% and trade him to Edmonton. He'd make a very good 3C.

You keep disingenuously listing scoring counts instead of rates so of course an injured player like Guentzel will fall behind. At 5v5 rates, Foegele is producing excellent this season (top 60 forwards), but that has been inconsistent with him his entire career. Some years he produced like a replacement level player. I don't think he is a bad player, but in the relative purposes of a trade, Guentzel is a likely significant upgrade. Malkin is just outside the top 100 forwards in the league. Guentzel is top 30 in 5v5 rates. That puts Malkin comfortably as a strong #2 center. Maybe a weak 1C, but the point remains, he is not what he used to be in his prime as a top 5 C in the world for many years. He's also a pretty ordinary 2C cap hit. None of the PIT core four are as dominant as they used to be. Malkin's no longer capable of effectively carrying below average top 6 wings in the season.

Quoting actual points scored isn't disingenuous at all.

If you want to go by rates, Foegele actually looks better by comparison as he has played fewer minutes than either Guentzel or Malkin. But if you want to play that game, here you are:

Guentzel: 2.49 P/60 (#30)
Foegele: 2.30 (#57)
Malkin: 2.04 (#102)

Only one of these players gets 90% of his TOI with Crosby. My point remains: Edmonton is not using Foegele as a throw in for cap purposes. There simply isn't enough upside for them here.

How much for Malkin with 50% retained?

You're just re-iterating the rates I explicitly stated. But let's go off of the last three years at 5v5 to reinforce what Holland is considering as opposed to a single season sample:
Guentzel: 2.27 Malkin: 2.16 Foegele: 1.87. Solid for a middle winger, but he's not consistent like a contender probably wants in their top 6. Also, Guentzel playing exclusively with Crosby would be playing with either a BETTER offensively gifted center in McDavid or at least nearly as good of one in Draisaitl. Crosby, while still elite, is not what he used to be. Not nearly as dynamic offensively on creating his own offense like McDrai are.
Malkin would probably not waive for a NMC but if Dubas were rebuilding I'm sure a 1st even a future draft would probably be the basis. His NMC will likely restrict options and trade value greatly.