Quoting: BestGMBenning
Zibanejad was 28 at the time of his extention. He got 8 years. Scheifele and Helly both 30 both have 7 year extensions. Huberdeau was 29 at the time of his extention. 8 years. It was a good signing at the time but little did we know he’d just disappear and Calgary would crash. Pietrangelo got a 7 year deal at 30. Miller got a 7 year extention when he was 29. I think the point should be gotten at this point. All long term deals in recent years for players closing in on 30.
Defense should be taken out of the story here. Statistically they decline earlier but much slower than forwards which is why I think teams are much more likely to to extend defense longer, and the more pressing need. The Helly extension is what it is. They needed a goalie. My guess is that will not age well (like Price) on the backend but you never know. Goalies are weird, some can play a high level for a long time, others crash and burn after a few seasons. A lot of it tends to be injury based.
I think the Huberdeau extension is a telling story that most GM don't want to repeat. I don't think anyone is looking at Jake being on the same level as some of the 35+ contracts that are actually working out.
A list of players at 36+ https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2024/games-played?stats-season=2024&limits=age-36-46 and you can see pretty clearly most guys aren't going to be worth 9-10 mil at that age. Matter of fact the only one that actually looks like he might be is Crosby right now. Nothing against Jake but he's no Crosby.
The worst thing is to get stuck into a TJ Oshie like deal, he's making almost 6 million and putting up 18 points in 38 games for the year and looks cooked.
So it's pretty clear those contracts don't end well. On a 7 year deal for Jake you are probably looking at 3 years 35,36,37 of that contract not being worth the 9-10 million he wants. I'm not sure that is going to fly. Which is why I say when he hits FA his expectations are probably going to come down a bit. Because I don't know anyone who's going to say Jake will play well till 37 and be worth 9-10 million in those years.
At best he'd be worth maybe 6 and putting up 50 points 60 games in like a lot of that list above at 36, at worst the tires are completely off like Oshie and he's not worth his contract at all.
That's why I think a 5 year deal is most likely at the 8 million range is sort of a fair deal for all. But I think he wants a Pasta like deal. But he signed that at 26 and it will end at 34. I don't think it's hard to see pasta playing well to 33. Which is most of the contract. Even if he's not worth 11 million in his last year, he'll be worth it for most of it.
But we'll see when he goes to FA, as I think teams are a bit more risk adverse now at signing guys 30+