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Forums/Armchair-GM

Is Guentzel a rental

Created by: Jebulinator58
Team: 2024-25 Pittsburgh Penguins
Initial Creation Date: Mar. 8, 2024
Published: Mar. 8, 2024
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
i've been seeing a lot of talk (on twitter so take that as you will) about Guentzel being a rental

so i want confirmation from people's thoughts and maybe if someone actually knows.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$775,000
3$850,000
3$800,000
2$985,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$3,000,000
2$2,000,000
6$9,590,000
Trades
1.
PIT
    he'll get traded
    STL
    1. Acciari, Noel
    Additional Details:
    just don't know where
    2.
    PIT
      he'll get traded
      VGK
      1. Smith, Reilly
      Additional Details:
      just don't know where
      3.
      PIT
      1. Bedard, Connor
      Additional Details:
      Haha jk
      Buyouts
      Retained Salary Transactions
      DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
      2024
      Logo of the PIT
      Logo of the PHI
      Logo of the PIT
      Logo of the PIT
      Logo of the PIT
      Logo of the NYR
      2025
      Logo of the PIT
      Logo of the PIT
      Logo of the PIT
      Logo of the PIT
      Logo of the PIT
      Logo of the PIT
      2026
      Logo of the PIT
      Logo of the PIT
      Logo of the PIT
      Logo of the SJS
      Logo of the PIT
      Logo of the PIT
      Logo of the PIT
      Logo of the CHI
      ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
      22$87,700,000$84,254,342$0$3,500,000$3,445,658
      Left WingCentreRight Wing
      $9,590,000$9,590,000
      LW, RW
      UFA
      Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
      $8,700,000$8,700,000
      C
      NMC
      UFA - 1
      Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
      $5,125,000$5,125,000
      RW, LW
      NMC
      UFA - 4
      Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
      $4,500,000$4,500,000
      LW
      M-NTC
      UFA - 2
      Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
      $6,100,000$6,100,000
      C
      NMC
      UFA - 2
      Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
      $5,000,000$5,000,000
      RW, LW
      M-NTC
      UFA - 4
      Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
      $925,000$925,000
      LW
      UFA - 1
      Logo of the Chicago Blackhawks
      $950,000$950,000 (Performance Bonus$3,500,000$4M)
      C
      RFA - 2
      Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
      $850,000$850,000
      RW, LW
      UFA
      Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
      $900,000$900,000
      LW, RW
      UFA - 1
      Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
      $800,000$800,000
      C, LW
      RFA
      Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
      $775,000$775,000
      RW, LW
      RFA
      Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
      $3,000,000$3,000,000
      LD/RD
      UFA
      Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
      $10,000,000$10,000,000
      RD
      NMC
      UFA - 3
      Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
      $5,375,000$5,375,000
      G
      M-NTC
      UFA - 4
      Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
      $4,025,175$4,025,175
      LD
      M-NTC
      UFA - 1
      Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
      $6,100,000$6,100,000
      RD
      NMC
      UFA - 4
      Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
      $2,000,000$2,000,000
      G
      UFA
      Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
      $985,000$985,000
      LD
      RFA
      Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
      $4,500,000$4,500,000
      LD
      M-NTC
      UFA - 5
      ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
      Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
      $775,000$775,000
      LD
      RFA - 1
      Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
      $800,000$800,000
      RW
      UFA - 1

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      Mar. 8 at 1:22 a.m.
      #1
      JimmyPaek
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      I would think Eller goes before Acciari. And Jake isn’t coming back here lol.
      Mar. 8 at 2:04 a.m.
      #2
      SkateOrDie
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      Quoting: edeangel84
      I would think Eller goes before Acciari. And Jake isn’t coming back here lol.


      I wouldn't rule that out yet.
      He has to hit the market to figure out his value. When he realizes anything past a 5 year deal is pushing it and he won't get a 10 mil ava, things may come back to earth.
      He's going out there looking for 7-8 years at 10 mil.... good luck. Not in this NHL. He'll get a wakeup call on that shortly.
      Mar. 8 at 2:21 a.m.
      #3
      ZarktheShark
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      Everything I've heard is he wants to test FA
      edeangel84 liked this.
      Mar. 8 at 2:36 a.m.
      #4
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      Quoting: LuckyMoneyPuck
      I wouldn't rule that out yet.
      He has to hit the market to figure out his value. When he realizes anything past a 5 year deal is pushing it and he won't get a 10 mil ava, things may come back to earth.
      He's going out there looking for 7-8 years at 10 mil.... good luck. Not in this NHL. He'll get a wakeup call on that shortly.


      Zibanejad was 28 at the time of his extention. He got 8 years. Scheifele and Helly both 30 both have 7 year extensions. Huberdeau was 29 at the time of his extention. 8 years. It was a good signing at the time but little did we know he’d just disappear and Calgary would crash. Pietrangelo got a 7 year deal at 30. Miller got a 7 year extention when he was 29. I think the point should be gotten at this point. All long term deals in recent years for players closing in on 30.
      Mar. 8 at 4:04 a.m.
      #5
      SkateOrDie
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      Quoting: BestGMBenning
      Zibanejad was 28 at the time of his extention. He got 8 years. Scheifele and Helly both 30 both have 7 year extensions. Huberdeau was 29 at the time of his extention. 8 years. It was a good signing at the time but little did we know he’d just disappear and Calgary would crash. Pietrangelo got a 7 year deal at 30. Miller got a 7 year extention when he was 29. I think the point should be gotten at this point. All long term deals in recent years for players closing in on 30.


      Defense should be taken out of the story here. Statistically they decline earlier but much slower than forwards which is why I think teams are much more likely to to extend defense longer, and the more pressing need. The Helly extension is what it is. They needed a goalie. My guess is that will not age well (like Price) on the backend but you never know. Goalies are weird, some can play a high level for a long time, others crash and burn after a few seasons. A lot of it tends to be injury based.

      I think the Huberdeau extension is a telling story that most GM don't want to repeat. I don't think anyone is looking at Jake being on the same level as some of the 35+ contracts that are actually working out.
      A list of players at 36+ https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2024/games-played?stats-season=2024&limits=age-36-46 and you can see pretty clearly most guys aren't going to be worth 9-10 mil at that age. Matter of fact the only one that actually looks like he might be is Crosby right now. Nothing against Jake but he's no Crosby.

      The worst thing is to get stuck into a TJ Oshie like deal, he's making almost 6 million and putting up 18 points in 38 games for the year and looks cooked.
      So it's pretty clear those contracts don't end well. On a 7 year deal for Jake you are probably looking at 3 years 35,36,37 of that contract not being worth the 9-10 million he wants. I'm not sure that is going to fly. Which is why I say when he hits FA his expectations are probably going to come down a bit. Because I don't know anyone who's going to say Jake will play well till 37 and be worth 9-10 million in those years.
      At best he'd be worth maybe 6 and putting up 50 points 60 games in like a lot of that list above at 36, at worst the tires are completely off like Oshie and he's not worth his contract at all.
      That's why I think a 5 year deal is most likely at the 8 million range is sort of a fair deal for all. But I think he wants a Pasta like deal. But he signed that at 26 and it will end at 34. I don't think it's hard to see pasta playing well to 33. Which is most of the contract. Even if he's not worth 11 million in his last year, he'll be worth it for most of it.

      But we'll see when he goes to FA, as I think teams are a bit more risk adverse now at signing guys 30+
      Mar. 8 at 8:00 a.m.
      #6
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      CAR thinks they have a shot at extending him. We'll see, though.
      Mar. 8 at 8:05 a.m.
      #7
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      Joined: Oct. 2022
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      You've got jokes 🤣🤣🤣

      Not funny ones though 🤬
      BestGMBenning liked this.
      Mar. 8 at 10:42 a.m.
      #8
      JimmyPaek
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      Joined: Apr. 2019
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      Quoting: LuckyMoneyPuck
      I wouldn't rule that out yet.
      He has to hit the market to figure out his value. When he realizes anything past a 5 year deal is pushing it and he won't get a 10 mil ava, things may come back to earth.
      He's going out there looking for 7-8 years at 10 mil.... good luck. Not in this NHL. He'll get a wakeup call on that shortly.


      He will get a 9 million or more offer from someone. This UFA class is weak. He is the best forward in the group.
      GoGuinsGo_18 liked this.
      Mar. 8 at 12:25 p.m.
      #9
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      Quoting: LuckyMoneyPuck
      Defense should be taken out of the story here. Statistically they decline earlier but much slower than forwards which is why I think teams are much more likely to to extend defense longer, and the more pressing need. The Helly extension is what it is. They needed a goalie. My guess is that will not age well (like Price) on the backend but you never know. Goalies are weird, some can play a high level for a long time, others crash and burn after a few seasons. A lot of it tends to be injury based.

      I think the Huberdeau extension is a telling story that most GM don't want to repeat. I don't think anyone is looking at Jake being on the same level as some of the 35+ contracts that are actually working out.
      A list of players at 36+ https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2024/games-played?stats-season=2024&limits=age-36-46 and you can see pretty clearly most guys aren't going to be worth 9-10 mil at that age. Matter of fact the only one that actually looks like he might be is Crosby right now. Nothing against Jake but he's no Crosby.

      The worst thing is to get stuck into a TJ Oshie like deal, he's making almost 6 million and putting up 18 points in 38 games for the year and looks cooked.
      So it's pretty clear those contracts don't end well. On a 7 year deal for Jake you are probably looking at 3 years 35,36,37 of that contract not being worth the 9-10 million he wants. I'm not sure that is going to fly. Which is why I say when he hits FA his expectations are probably going to come down a bit. Because I don't know anyone who's going to say Jake will play well till 37 and be worth 9-10 million in those years.
      At best he'd be worth maybe 6 and putting up 50 points 60 games in like a lot of that list above at 36, at worst the tires are completely off like Oshie and he's not worth his contract at all.
      That's why I think a 5 year deal is most likely at the 8 million range is sort of a fair deal for all. But I think he wants a Pasta like deal. But he signed that at 26 and it will end at 34. I don't think it's hard to see pasta playing well to 33. Which is most of the contract. Even if he's not worth 11 million in his last year, he'll be worth it for most of it.

      But we'll see when he goes to FA, as I think teams are a bit more risk adverse now at signing guys 30+


      There’s always going to be hit and misses. But I don’t think Jake is going to be a miss. He’s not just a product of Sid. Him and Sid made each other better.
       
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