I think you should re-title this "How WE WILL manage". Because that's about as good as it gets right there.

Unless you know, someone else is LTIR until April 15th or whatever...

Hertl and Karlsson swap in the lineup, though

Ah, the fantasyland fans live in where their significant players take a lot less money and/or term to stay with their team rather than pursuing the riches of UFA. Occasionally that happens but, more often than not, it does not. Don't worry, we all go through it but reality is a killer.

Hanifin's rumored contract even before Hertl was 7mil AAV with Vegas. He's not that far off.

I'd be really surprised if Marchessassault would reject that contract given his history with the team. He probably makes some more elsewhere, but not a significant amount.

But he'd likely get at least two more years which is significant money to leave on the table

Hanifin, as already stated by someone else, is rumoured to be around 7M. And looking at the cap space in this scenario, he can honestly get 7M. Term though is something debatable. Marchessault on the other hand, is VGK in and out and him and Vegas will likely be able to sort something out that benefits both parties. VGK will have the upper hand against Amadio as they literally carved his career into something