Ideally would prefer to keep Siegs and give up bahl.

Seems fair for Smith, might prefer to grab a Foegele and Trenin instead of him+Zucker tho

Would think they’d rather trade Bahl than Siegenthaler

0 chance on that trade. There isn't nearly enough value there. MP would bring back a 1st + bahl. bahl and Siegs are pretty much replaceable.
If the return for Jarry is a 1st next year and a washed out prospect the answer is no. They have no pressing need to move Jarry, you have to make it worth their while.

NJD would happily just do a 1st+bahl for Pettersson instead.

We’ll happily keep siegenthaler

The penguins are ok with that. Bahl is younger and has more upside.
Sieg is what he is at this point, and the peak playing years for defenseman is 25-26.
If Sieg couldn't play better than what he is today, odds are he's never going to.

Siegs if he returns to what he was last year is a steal of a contract. Even at what he is not it’s more than fine value wise. Especially down the line when he’s fully in his prime and still making 3.4 mill in a 100 mill cap era

hoping players bounce back at 27 is a bad bet.
Statistics show Defensemen peak at 25-26 and then slowly decline.
He's already hit his prime.

I agree he has already hit his prime, but assuming a player who has previously shown a quality level of play for multiple years cannot return to a previous level of play at age 27 is a bad assumption. There is a development curve (and siegs is not developing anymore), but players still have good and bad years.

If he was in his 30s sure, but writing a 27 year old off after 1 down year is wild

did he have 1 bad year or did he have 1 good year?
This year looks no better than his 21-22 year. Fact is he's got 4 years of actual NHL play, 2 bad, 2 not really impressive. Why do you think that's a good bet?
In general you are talking about a very inconsistent player who has already peaked. I don't think that's a good bet for anyone, and not "wild" to think that.
That's the point of why Bahl , a younger player who can still develop into a consistent player.
Not an inconsistent 27 year old on a 3.4 mil contract for the next 4 years. You can find that much cheaper in a league with growing cap disparities between the top and the bottom.
As it is now you are basically paying a guy who is 3rd pair value 3.4 mil. I think right now NJ has him scratched. Why would anyone bet on that.

Siegenthaler was excellent in 21-22. Like legitimately one of the best defensive dman in the NHL

He is not scratched. He has a concussion because a goon threw an elbow into his head.

He has:

1 bad year
2 good years playing 20+ minutes a night.
1 good year in very sheltered minutes at 22 years old.

This is especially ironic because you claim Ryan Graves is worth a 1st.

Ryan Graves is 2 years older, makes 1.1 mill more a year, and has been a worse player than Siegenthaler

If Graves is worth a 1st, Siegs is worth multiple 1sts.

It's really ironic when you say Siegenthaler was "one of the best defenseive Dman in the NHL" in 21-22 when his numbers this year are better than they were that year and this is a "bad" year.
Which is where we get to the inconsistent play, because 5 on 5 he's bled goals for 3 of the last 4 years and it's not like he hasn't had talent around him in that time. Arguably NJ has been at the same level of play at PIT during that time.

As far as him being scratched, that's how the NHL had him marked, you'd think NJ would LTIR him considering it's been 2 weeks.

The value of Graves as nothing to do with Seigenthaler. It's not even worth the comparison I don't know why you bother to bring it up. Graves has been steady his whole career. Even this year, where other people want to blame him for everything under the sun, he's still a net positive player (which is saying something given how much EK left him exposed) on the ice aka he's not bleeding goals, which means he's quietly doing his job. The only year he ever bled goals was his first in NJ. So the CF opinion of players is just garbage and everyone knows it. So lets not try to drag others players into it by suggesting that Graves isn't worth the 1st. He is.

The point I'm making here is teams are running out looking for defenseman who bled goals.
It's not like PIT has any more offensive capability as a team than NJ. They simply don't. Matter of fact you could argue that NJ has the better team or at a minimum at least equal to.
Yet in 49 games your guy is bleeding goals. Where you can look at a guy like Bahl, in 74 games he's basically a net even (-1) 5v5 while getting 55% of his starts in the Dzone.
I think it's pretty easy to see why someone would rather make that move over Seig. Especially when you consider that most teams put their best players starting in the attacking zone. AKA the level of competition on those starts.

Fact is he had very sheltered time in WSH. In NJ he's had 1 good year an 2 years bleeding goals and a year where he didn't even get in 20 games where he bled goals as well.
So as high as you are on him, I'm not. I see a lot more inconsistency for a guy who should be at his peak statistically.
If cap space was a luxury taking on 3 mil for a guy who's inconsistent with a high ceiling is fine. But it's not and why consistency is highly valued.

Ahh your entire defensive analysis is +/-. Not worth having a discussion with someone living in 1980. All the information is at your finger tips in the modern era and you can't be bothered to go past a stat that hasn't been relevant in decades.

Jonas Siegenthaler in each of the last 3 years has had a better xGoals% than Graves. (this year is the only year it's close).

In 21-22 NJD allowed 2.17 xGoals/60 minutes with Jonas Siegenthaler on the ice. That ranked 24th among all dman in the NHL. Not a single other devils dman ranked in the top 100 that year or below 2.5.

Severson ranked 108th, subban 106th, Graves 142nd.

Or if you simply watched them play at any point in the 2 years they played together in jersey you'd have seen siegenthaler being significantly better the entire time.

Speaking of Bahl, there is 1 dman who lost his Job to bahl. That was Ryan Graves.

I think you are the one with the warped idea on stats.
xGoals% is a worthless stat. Fancy as the day is long. According to it, the penguins should have kept winning games for the past 3 years.... They haven't.
The far more telling one is looking at who's on the ice when the goals are being coughed up and why.
You can fancy it up all day. Believe me, people do. But you are either winning or losing on the ice.
It's about a lot more than just a +/-. You are looking at TOI, starts, competition level.
You say all this about Grave and Sieg... but no one ever hid Graves on the ice. He's never had higher Ozone starts than Dzone.
Even this year on Graves, where he's still a net positive, he's getting over 58% of his starts in the Dzone.
So goals60 is really great... but when you get 10% more of your starts in the Ozone, aka sheltered, you aren't comparing apples to oranges.
You guy bleeds goals. Not horribly but he does. He does that while getting easier minutes as a defenseman aka Ozone starts.
So as much as you want to ramble about worthless stats, please realize how worthless the stats you use are.

Siegenthaler had a higher% of dzone starts than graves in 21-22.

He has played with more offensively minded Dougie Hamilton and then Simon Nemec, and so they send out that pair more in offensive situations. And siegenthaler has been the one to carry the defensive load in those scenarios.

Siegenthaler has a higher quality of competition than graves btw. he's in the 62nd%ile while graves is in the 45th%ile over the last 3 years. So siegenthaler in fact plays harder

Again, if your idea of defense is +/-, it's not worth wasting time on you.

and that's the only year he's had a higher defensive start than him.
You wanted to turn this conversation into Graves and Seig... and want to compare a guy who gets over 58% of his starts in the Dzone this year to a guy who gets almost 55% of his starts in the ozone an then come up with "he carries the load" .... you don't carry a load starting in the Ozone. You are hidden there. That's where you put the guy who can't defend. Why you see guys like Shattenkirk, Justin Schultz, Barrie, Krug, etc.... all hidden there consistently.

So again, you got a guy who this year, is bleeding goals, takes most of his starts in the Ozone....
but keep hiding behind some +/- argument. 5v5 your guy keeps bleeding goals showing inconsistent play. He's had 1 good year. The stats show that.
As for your quality of competition stat, that is an even more bs stat than your xgoals. It's also pointless to stretch a stat like that out to 3 years.

Jonas siegenthaler has had 10.04% of his starts in the ozone compared to 8.48% for Graves.
In dzone it's 11.71% for siegs, 13.36% for Graves

And again, the gap is because Jonas Siegenthaler is paired with Dougie Hamilton and his job is to cover for Hamilton's defensive limitations

You are talking about a difference of siegenthaler getting 1 extra ozone faceoff every 3 games.

QOC measures who you are up against based on their TOI. So a higher QOC% ile means you play more of your minutes against top line players for the opposition. The difference isn't particularly meaningful, but it's about as much so as 1 faceoff every 3 games

Over the last 3 years with Jonas Siegenthaler on the ice 5v5, his team has generated 51.06% of goals. Ryan Graves has generated 51.19.

With graves on the ice more shot attempts against, more shots, more expected goals are allowed.
Additionally fewer shots for, and expected goals for are generated.

You are giving Ryan Graves credit for his goaltender playing better behind him.

again you over here using dead weight stats. xgoals. shots etc... none of that predicts what happens on the ice. If it did the penguins would have won a lot more games than what they have over the last several years. They are just fancy tell you nothing bs stats. What counts is what actually happens on the ice.
This year.
49 games played goals allowed 34
70 games played goals allowed 37
this is 5v5 play.
That's not "better goal tending" when Jarry is over here with a .913 even strength sv% no one would say the penguins had great goaltending. It's been literally average. NJ goal tending before any trades,
.897 and .905 isn't some huge disadvantage. You are talking about litterally 1.6 to .8% of a difference on the year. You over here acting like Jarry is pulling in a 5% difference.

This is why I said above, that the support these two players have had is at best even and more likely that NJ has the better team built around them. As you aren't a 3 goal difference in 21 games due to a save percentage..... especially when you want to use stats that say Graves takes more shots as there goes any "bonus" save % you'd get.
For what ever reason you wanted to make this about graves your not proving any point. You can bark about xgoals all day. For years I have heard all about how the penguins are doing "everything right" the "advanced stats" are in their favor and it should "turn around" as the xgoals...blah blah blah..... it's all bs. One day you'll figure that out. It either IS or it IS NOT. The soon you accept the reality of actuality over hopes and dreams potentiality you can get somewhere.
You can't look at Graves and say he bleeds goals. He simply does not. You can look at Seigs... you can give me all the excuses in the world.... you can give me all the fancy stats in the world.... but he bleeds goals.
You can't tell me about how these things are due to his partner either. Who do you think Graves partner is. He partners with EK and Letang for most of the year.
Please tell me how Hamilton is more of an excuse to be in the offensive zone, or defensive liability than those two. It's simply not true. EK is a far worse defensive responsibility. Or any of the 3rd pairing AHL level players Graves has had to partner with to stabilize the defense in his own zone when they know they can't put EK down there on the R side.

Furthermore your zone start stats are just a mess. 10%+ 11%... is 21 % no one is taking 79% of their zone starts in neutral ice. You are distorting the percentage of the whole point of the zone start stat.
Which is why no one keeps the stat that way. It doesn't tell you how guys are actually used.

For what ever reason you wanted to single out Graves as a comparison you have gone round and round and said a whole lot of nothing. A simple look at the numbers shows where the goals are bleeding.
You can say, oh it's a bs stat.... you can come up with excuses... you can blame "goaltending" or whatever other excuse you want.
At the end of the day, the numbers are what they are.

People take 65%+% of their shift starts on the fly.
Usually around 10% each in each zone.

Those are accurate numbers for what % of shifts start by where. And again, the difference is 1 faceoff every 3 games. If 1 faceoff every 3 games means that much to you you must hate Cale Makar as a hockey player, who starts twice as many of his shifts in the offensive zone than Siegenthaler does.

Again, your idea of defense is +/-. Come out of the Stone Age and maybe you’ll be worth talking to

The 65% on the fly means nothing to anyone. Those "on the fly" that you throw out doesn't mean they aren't in a zone with the puck heading one direction or the other.
This is why no one uses the stat that way. Because it's not detailed enough to tell you anything. It's just another garbage stat because it's not clean data. aka it has no validity.
It doesn't tell the story. Where a zone start on puck drop does.... this guy is used mainly in this zone.... Here is the proof...when team needs defensive stand on puckdrop.. there he is... when team needs a goal on puck drop there he is in the Ozone..... Using irrelevant stats made of dirty data isn't helping you.

Again hopes and dreams of xgoals has nothing to do with what actually happens on the ice. Actuality is > than potentiality. You have yet to learn that.

Anyone with any experience in analytics knows this.
Descriptive... Diagnostic... Prescriptive .... rarely do people make decisions with predictive analysis because it's not reliable.

Again, penguins top team in xgoals for the last 3 years... can't win $#!t.... predictive means nothing.

When you are ready to grow up and look at what actually takes place on the ice let me know. If all you got is a bunch of number that you clearly don't understand what any of them actually mean don't bother.
No one cares about your fancy stats what say nothing. At the end of the year there is a story of numbers on the ice. What actually happened... Why it happened... How to fix it.

Your guy bled goals.... It's not simply the fault of others... go figure it out... (aka maybe try to use predictive to find a replacement that actually matches)

The whole... but this is what we predicted should have happened doesn't mean anything. Which is why the whole xgoals stat is pure trash and always will be. But those horrible Out of the Stone age stats continue to be kept. Maybe one day when you realize how analytics really works you'll be worth talking to.